Free NFL Picks Today: Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans 9/25/22

Free NFL Picks Today: Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans 9/25/22
Sun 25th September 2022

The Houston Texans (0-1-1, 0-1-0 Away) are on the road to face the Chicago Bears (1-1, 1-0 Home) at Soldier Field on Sunday. The Bears are 2.5-point favorites, and the total is 40. Houston is coming off a 16-9 loss to the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High last Sunday. Davis Mills threw for 177 yards. Dameon Pierce ran 15 times for 69 yards. Nico Collins was targeted nine times, catching four passes for 58 yards. Chicago lost 27-10 to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last Sunday. Justin Fields was 7 of 11 for 70 yards and an interception. David Montgomery carried 15 times for 122 yards. Equanimeous St. Brown caught two receptions for 39 yards.


The teams are meeting in the regular season for the first time since December 2020, a 36-7 win for the Bears. Mitch Trubisky threw three touchdowns for Chicago.


The Texans are averaging 14.5 points per game so far this season, 26th in the NFL, and they are facing a Bears defense that has surrendered 18.5 PPG (12th). Meanwhile, Chicago has scored 14.5 points a game this season, 26th in the league, and Houston is allowing 18.0 PPG (9th).The Texans rank 22nd in the league in passing yards per game (208.5) and 27th in rushing (78.5). They will look to take advantage on the ground, as the Bears are worst in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (189.5). Against the pass, Chicago is sixth (199.0).Chicago has been the league’s least successful passing team, averaging 95.5 passing yards per game, while ranking eighth in rushing yards (139.5). The Texans are allowing 285.5 passing yards (27th) and 163.0 rushing yards per game (30th).Houston is averaging 1.0 trips to the red zone a game so far this season, zeroth lowest in the NFL, finding the end zone 50% of the time (19th). Chicago ranks as the one of the lowest volume red zone offenses in the league, moving inside the 20-yard-line only 2.0 times per game (31st) and scoring a touchdown on 75% of those possessions (7th). Houston has been tough to beat when defending their own red zone, holding opponents to a conversion percentage of only 29% (4th).


Through two games, Mills has thrown for two touchdowns and 208.5 yards per game to lead Houston in passing. Pierce leads the team in rushing with an average of 51.0 yards a game over two games. Brandin Cooks is the Texans’ leading receiver with 68.0 yards a game. He is averaging 5.5 receptions on 11.0 targets per game. Fields has two passing touchdowns (2 INT) with 95.5 yards per game through two games to lead Chicago. In one prior home game this season, he threw for two TDs (1 INT) and 121 yards. Montgomery has been the home team’s leading performer on the ground, averaging 74.0 yards a game through two games. St. Brown has been a key target in the Bears’ passing game. He has one touchdown and a 28.5 yard per game average through two appearances.

SportsTips’ NFL Pick:

Chicago Bears (-150)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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