Free NFL Picks for Week 7, 2021

Free NFL Picks for Week 7, 2021
Thu 21st October 2021

Our Week 7 NFL picks for the 2021 season have analysed the five best games of the weekend, including two divisional rivalry games along with games including the Chiefs, Rams and Buccaneers. We bring all of the action for you so all you need to do is read, agree and bet away, using FanDuel of course. 

Our NFL picks have looked over every aspect of the best five games from Week 7 and provide you with our best bets from each!

New York Jets @ New England Patriots – 1pm EDT

The New York Jets and New England Patriots face off for the second and final time this season, following New England’s 26-6 win in Week 2. This game will allow New York to track their progress through the early stages of the season, given they are just 1-4 and coming off the bye, while New England will want to bounce back after a narrow home loss to the Cowboys last week. 

Tim Newton

It is hard to see how the Jets will be able to compete in this one. New England smacked them in Week 2 and now this game will be played at Gillette Stadium, a place the New York haven’t won since the 2010 season. Clearly things have changed a lot since then, with Tom Brady no longer leading the Patriots, but Bill Belichick is renowned for getting to rookie quarterbacks and that was evident in their Week 2 matchup. Three of Zach Wilson’s first five throws were interceptions and the Jets never had a chance of competing with Mac Jones and the Patriots in that clash.

Wilson does look a lot more comfortable in his role, and even led the Jets to a win over the 4-2 Titans, but Tennessee has a terrible defense. New England’s defense is not terrible, in fact it is one of the better defenses in the league. That will mean that Wilson will have to run for his life and will take a barrage of hits in this game, something he won’t be able to deal with. That will then result in Jones and the Patriots getting great field position and every chance to score big, and win big. 

Tim’s NFL Pick: New England Patriots -7 (-110)

Mike Su

The Patriots lost in a nail-biter to the Cowboys last week and now look to bounce back against the AFC East’s punching bag, the New York Jets. Mac Jones looked great last week despite some rookie struggles. He threw a great touchdown pass right at the defensive player of the year favourite Trevon Diggs, despite throwing an interception to Diggs one play earlier. The toughness of Jones has been the signature of this Patriots offense, which has still been struggling play calling wise. Against the Jets, the Patriots will likely run the ball as the Jets have a bottom 10 run defense. Watch for the Patriots’ deep running back room to be utilized heavily and for Mac Jones to make some big plays out of play-action. 

On the other side of the ball, the Patriots defense should dominate the Jets and their anaemic offense. The Jets are 2nd worst in the league for yards per game and dead last in points scored. The Patriots will hold them out just like they did 5 weeks ago and they should win this by an even wider margin than last time.

Mike’s NFL Pick: New England Patriots -7 (-110)

Tony Battalio

This might just be the most important game of the week, as it features two teams desperate for a victory. This is a match up of rookie quarterbacks as Zach Wilson leads New York into battle against Mac Jones and the Patriots. New England comes into this game 2-4 and the New York Jets enter at 1-4. Last week the Patriots lost another one possession game, this time to Dallas in overtime. The New York Jets had a bye week, but most recently fell by 7 points to the Atlanta Falcons. 

New York is averaging around 13 points per game while giving up around 24 per game. Meanwhile New England is averaging around 20 points per game while giving up around 21 points per game. Both teams feature heavy passing attacks but struggle to run the football effectively, which never mixes well. While the AFC East crown will likely be out of reach, both teams could use a win to stay alive in the AFC Wild Card race as the season progresses. This will be a home game for the Patriots, and based on recent results it is likely that they pull out the win in this one.

Tony’s NFL Pick: New England Patriots (-310)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens – 1pm EDT

The two top teams in the AFC North square off as Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens host Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday afternoon. While the Bengals look impressive with a 4-2 record, their schedule has flattered them so far. Meanwhile, the Ravens have won five straight to sit on top of not only the AFC North, but the entire AFC. 

Tim Newton

Can the Bengals go into M&T Bank Stadium and stop the Ravens’ streak? As the introduction alludes to, they may have an impressive record but they don’t have an impressive schedule, beating down on teams that they should be beating. The Ravens on the other hand have had an extremely tough schedule to date and have gotten better as the weeks have gone on. Lamar Jackson is looking like an MVP again and is the only quarterback in NFL history to be undefeated in the month of October, of those that have had 5+ starts. 

Jackson is top 10 in passing yards through the first six weeks and is also seventh in rushing yards, highlighting his brilliance and versatility, which then flows onto the entire Baltimore offense. However, while Baltimore’s offense has been good so far this season, the game will be won on the other side of the ball. Joe Burrow has seven interceptions through the first six games of the year and the Ravens are coming off a game where they dominated Justin Herbert and the Chargers, who are much better than the Bengals. 

Herbert ranks sixth for passing yards but Baltimore kept him to just 195 yards last week, also forcing an interception while keeping him to just one touchdown, after he had recorded 13 through the first five weeks. If Baltimore can do that to him, how do you think Joe Burrow is going to go… Given that the spread is under a touchdown, I think the Ravens to win and cover looks a good bet. 

Tim’s NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-110)

Mike Su

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP season, leading the Ravens to 5 straight wins against some of the league’s best teams. Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens will be facing a Bengals team that has quietly surprised, sitting on a 4-2 record. In the 2 games the Bengals lost, they only lost by 3 points in each game. The Bengals have been a new team this season and may very well be up for the task of beating their division rivals. Joe Burrow has been great this season with 1540 yards, 14 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 6 games. Despite this Burrow only managed to put up 3 points in his only game against the Ravens, last season, and only had 183 yards in the air. Although this is a new Bengals team, the Bengals are facing a team that held the explosive Chargers offense to 6 points last week. 

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals will be taking on one of the better rushing teams in the league. Although the Bengals are top 10 in the league in rushing defense and beat the run heavy Vikings in their first game, containing Jackson is difficult, and it is a task they failed at last season. The Ravens need to win this to maintain their division lead, and Lamar has shown he shines under the bright lights this season. The Ravens should win this one.

Mike’s NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-260)

Tony Battalio

This game is the NFL’s biggest surprise vs the NFL team who has absolutely lived up to the hype thus far. The Bengals are mere moments away from being 6-0 this season, meanwhile the Ravens are rolling over everything in their path. Baltimore is also a couple plays away from being 6-0 as well, but nevertheless this game is for first place in the AFC North division. Not many people would have expected that to be the case just 7 weeks ago.

Cincinnati is averaging around 25 points per game while giving up around 18 per game. Meanwhile Baltimore is averaging around 28 points per game while giving up around 20 points per game. Both teams have seemed to be able to run and pass the football at will at times. This will be a home game for the Baltimore Ravens, and I think they will continue their dominant display with a win here on Sunday.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens (-260)

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Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans – 1pm ET

One week after beating the Bills, the Tennessee Titans will attempt to knock off the other AFC Championship game participant from last season when they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. This game will put the best passer in the game up against the best rusher in the game, being Patrick Mahomes and Derrick Henry, respectively. 

Tim Newton

While the Chiefs need this win more than ever, can you trust them to beat Tennessee in Nissan Stadium? After their shock defeat to the lowly Jets, the Titans seem to have clicked into gear and have also been able to get Julio Jones and A.J. Brown on the field at the same time. Not that he needs much help, but that has allowed Derrick Henry to be absolutely dominant over recent weeks. Over his last two games, Henry has amassed 273 yards and six touchdowns, and he has now recorded three games of at least 130+ rushing yards and 3+ touchdowns so far through just three games. Given the Chiefs have shown an ability to stop opposing running backs, in their narrow win over the Browns and loss to the Ravens, Henry could have another monster game lined up.

However, on the other side of the ball, Tennessee has had a tough time stopping opposing quarterbacks, ranking in the bottom 10 for passing yards allowed this season. That isn’t a good sign coming up against Patrick Mahomes and the dynamic Chiefs offense. Kansas City may be just 3-3 on the season, but their offense hasn’t slowed down at all, ranking second for total yards and second for passing yards through six games. 

Given each teams’ strength will be able to directly exploit their opponents’ weakness in this game, the over looks like an incredible bet. Henry should be able to stack up the points on the ground for the Titans while Mahomes should enjoy being able to flaunt his deep passing game, meaning this one will pile up the points. 

Tim’s NFL Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)

Mike Su

The Chiefs have had one of their worst stretches under Patrick Mahomes. After beating the WFT last week, the Chiefs finally shook their losing record. The team will be trying to turn the ship but will be facing the Titans and won’t have it easy. 

The Titans are simultaneously capable of beating any team in the league but are able to lose to any team in the league. They have beaten some of the league’s best, including Buffalo last week, but lost to the Jets a few weeks prior. The Titans will need to exploit the Chiefs’ absolutely horrid defense to pull out a win. That means running the ball with Derrick Henry. Henry has been on a historic run as of late and may end up breaking several records by the season’s end. Henry carried the Titans last game and will be looking to do the same this week. There is no doubt that the Chiefs will stack the box to try to stop Henry, which will make life easy for AJ Brown and Julio Jones. The Chiefs defense is in a tough position no matter what strategy they go with here. 

The Chiefs offense should be able to put up points, as they have scored an average of 30.8 points per game this season. What the Chiefs, but more specifically Mahomes need to do is avoid dumb interceptions. The Chiefs have struggled to comeback from bad throws from Mahomes. The winner of this game is a toss up in my opinion, so instead I will be on the Overs. Bad defenses vs good offenses is a recipe for fireworks.

Mike’s NFL Pick: Over 57.5 (-110)

Tony Battalio

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs may just be human after all. After back to back Super Bowl appearances the Chiefs have limped their way to a 3-3 record after 6 weeks in the 2021 season. Meanwhile Tennessee also had a slow start, but they seem to have found the gas pedal as of late, which is helped by the reemergence of King Henry at the running back position. Despite numerous injuries to their star wide receiving core, the Titans have won 4 of their last 5 games, including a huge win over AFC Title-favorites, the Buffalo Bills last Monday night.

Both quarterbacks in this game have struggled this season as they have combined for 12 interceptions in 12 total games played. What sets them apart is the fact that Mahomes averages around 3 TDs while Tannehill only averages around 1 a game. Coming into this game Tennessee is the hotter team and they also get to play this one at home, away from the hostile Arrowhead Stadium. That is why I’m picking Tennessee to win this one despite being the underdog. I believe Henry will continue his recent string of success and carry the Titans to victory on Sunday at home.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans (+198)

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Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams – 4:05pm ET

While this is one of the biggest mismatches of the weekend, according to FanDuel’s spreads, it is the game with the biggest meaning. These sides were involved in an offseason trade which was one of the biggest trades in recent memory. Jared Goff, who led the Los Angeles Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, was traded to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford. The big question is, can Goff and his winless Lions enact revenge on the 5-1 Rams inside SoFi Stadium?

Tim Newton

The Jared Goff revenge game. This one will definitely be fun but it won’t be because it will be close. The spread is currently 15.5 points but the Rams could easily beat that mark and by a long way. The Lions rank 27th for total yards per game and 28th for points per game so far this season while the Rams are eighth and sixth respectively. 

Detroit to cover the spread last weekend, when it was +3.5 against the Bengals, was some people’s bets of the weekend around the country but they went out and got embarrassed, losing 34-11, with the 23 point differential more than covering the spread laid out for this game here, and the Rams are a much better side than the Bengals. On the other side, LA are coming off a 27 point win over the Giants, who are better than the Lions. You see the point that I’m making?

Stafford has allowed the Rams to utilise an extremely dynamic and fun offense, which is a massive upgrade from what is was under Goff and what the Lions have now. That should mean that the LA defense, that has been ranked first for years but has been middling so far this season, will be able to get at Goff, force turnovers and give the Rams the best possibility to win and cover. 

Tim’s NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -15.5 (-105)

Mike Su

The Rams have been chugging along all season, and outside of a loss against the Cardinals, they have looked great. Now they face an easy game against the worst team in the league. The Lions have been bad with an 0-6 record, but have shown flashes. The Lions have had many close comebacks where they have just barely lost in the final seconds. Although this may be a factor against other teams, I don’t think the Lions will be a threat to the Rams. 

While the Rams defense has regressed a lot this season, they are still an extremely skilled unit that brings many of the same pieces from last year back. The Rams will likely hold this Lions team out of the end zone. The Rams offense has been phenomenal too, averaging nearly 30 points a game. In fact the Rams have only scored less than 30 points twice, with a 26-17 win over the Seahawks and a 27-24 win against the Colts. The Rams will likely drop 40 on this bottom 10 Lions defense which has allowed nearly 30 points per game. The Rams win huge here. 

Mike’s NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -15.5 (-105)

Tony Battalio

One team in this game is riding the highest of highs while the other has suffered heartbreaking loss after heartbreaking loss. Los Angeles sits at 5-1, while the Detroit Lions are heading into this game winless at 0-6. However there is an added element to this one and that is former Rams quarterback Jared Goff who was traded to Detroit for Matthew Stafford in the offseason. This could very well turn into a revenge game for Goff as he will be looking to show his old team that they made a huge mistake by dealing him for the much older Stafford. 

Detroit has been on the wrong side of luck this season as they have suffered 3 one possession losses, with one of those losses coming on a record-setting 66-yard game winning field goal by Justin Tucker. They have also given up a last second game winning FG to the Minnesota Vikings that was 54 yards. Meanwhile Los Angeles has looked like NFC title favorites, after beating Tampa Bay. Although they lost to Arizona, those two teams could have very well provided us with an early season NFC title game preview. As for this game I see Detroit’s bad luck continuing as Stafford and Los Angeles roll to victory.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Los Angeles Rams -15.5 (-105)

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 4.25pm ET

We round out our NFL picks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Chicago Bears. One week after Aaron Rodgers proclaimed that he owns the Bears, Tom Brady will have a point to prove in this clash that he still remains the better of the two veteran QBs. FanDuel currently has the line at 12.5 points, which may not be enough in this lopsided clash. 

Tim Newton

I completely agree with the sentiment in the introduction, with the spread being far too low in this game. While the Bears have been alright this season, sitting at 3-3 through six games, I worry about how Justin Fields will go against an extremely talented and physical Tampa Bay defensive front.

In saying that, Chicago actually sits on top of the league for sacks this season, averaging 3.5 per game. That means they are getting to the quarterback and forcing them into quick decision, but there is no one better in the game at handling that than Tom Brady. While he has thrown for the most passing yards and second most passing touchdowns, he has been sacked just nine times – the third lowest for all QBs in the top 20 for passing yards. That means that the play calls are good, the protection is great and he is finding open receivers wherever he wants. 

Brady’s excellence takes away the only thing that Chicago has been doing well this season and that means the Bucs should put up some points. As mentioned, I also think their defense will do a great job of restricting Fields and the Bears’ offense, meaning they should be able to win and cover, with the spread being less than two touchdowns. 

Tim’s NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 (-106)

Mike Su

The Buccaneers play a Chicago side that has struggled mightily on offense. The Bears have been bad this season despite their 3-3 record with their offense being unable to move the ball many times throughout the year. The strength of the Bears offense this year has been its run game which averages 129 yards per game which is top 10 in the league. However the Bears have lost their 2 best backs, Damien Williams and David Montgomery to injury. This means the team will have to rely on their rookie quarterback Justin Fields who has struggled behind a bad offensive line. The Bears have the worst passing attack in the league averaging 117 yards passing per game. They will be facing a Buccaneers defense that has bad cornerback play, but the Bears will likely still struggle as the Buccaneers should be able to get to the quarterback. 

Brady might have a hard time against the Bears tough defense which is one of the best in the league, but the Buccaneers and their top 3 offense should be able to put points on the board. Brady would certainly strengthen his MVP case if he can beat this vaulted defense and continue his league-leading play. Brady currently leads the league in passing yards with over 2000 yards in 6 games, along with 17 touchdowns. It is tough to bet against the Buccaneers and Brady against a team that has looked as bad as the Bears. 

Mike’s NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 (-106)

Tony Battalio

From one of last year’s Super Bowl teams to the other, there has been a huge difference. While Kansas City has regressed, Tampa Bay looks right on track to put up a fight to return to this year’s Super Bowl. Led by the ageless wonder Tom Brady and a high flying offense the Bucs are sitting at 5-1. Meanwhile Chicago is 3-3 and rookie quarterback Justin Fields is probably regretting his preseason comments about the game being slow for him. Since making the change at QB, Chicago has gone 2-2. The two wins came against a Raiders team surrounded by turmoil and the winless Detroit Lions. 

Meanwhile Tampa Bay has won their last 3 after losing to the Los Angeles Rams. Even with a rotating door at the running back position due to injuries and other situations, they have looked unbeatable the past 3 weeks. Brady has looked like his normal self, throwing for 17 Touchdowns in 6 games. This will be another easy victory for the Tampa Bay Bucs in my opinion. Their fabulous defense will overwhelm Justin Fields and Brady will be waiting on the other side ready to take full advantage.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12.5 (-106)

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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.

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