Free NFL Picks for Week 17, 2021

Free NFL Picks for Week 17, 2021
Sun 2nd January 2022

We have another massive week of NFL action and our free NFL picks have sorted through the best five games of the weekend for you!

The NFL season is winding down, and playoff races are heating up. This week 17 slate includes a few old rivalries and some major storylines as teams look to make a late-season playoff push. 

Our NFL picks help find who that might be and provide you with our best bets from five of Week 17’s games. 

Sunday, January 2nd

Atlanta Falcons @ Buffalo Bills – 1pm ET

This cross conference matchup has a ton of playoff implications on the line as the 7-8 Atlanta Falcons head to snowy and cold Buffalo to meet the 9-6 Buffalo Bills. The Falcons picked up a win in their last game over the Detroit Lions, while the Buffalo Bills avenged their loss to the New England Patriots to set the stage for this one. 

Michael Lantz

The Falcons still have a small chance of making the playoffs, but that opportunity seems to be slipping away, as they’re without star receiver Calvin Ridley and will have to spend week 17 going up against the Buffalo Bills. They’ll need Matt Ryan to play at his highest level and their defense to step up big if they have any chance of slowing down the Bills in Buffalo.

Meanwhile Buffalo is led by dynamic quarterback Josh Allen, and a pass defense that’s arguably the best in the NFL. That’s going to be a massive issue for a Falcons team that likes to air it out. The Bills run defense hasn’t fared as well, as they sit toward the middle of the NFL in defense against the rush. The Falcons will hope to rely on the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Davis to take the pressure of Ryan. Still, the big question comes from Atlanta’s defense, as they’ve struggled heavily anytime they face a legitimate offense. The Bills are very much legit. Aside from Allen, they have one of the league’s top receivers in Stefon Diggs and a variety of other targets such as Emmanuel Sanders and Devin Singletary. Those players should be able to overwhelm the Falcons, not to mention the always raunchous Western New York crowd that will be on hand. I’ll take Bills to cover.

Michael’s NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-105)

Mike Su

The Bills sit as undoubted favourites going into a game against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are a somewhat respectable 7-8 which is actually a lot better than I thought they’d do before the season began. The Falcons are exceptional playing away this season with a 5-3 record and seem to only choke away leads at home. The Falcons have been 3-2 in their last 5 but come off a relatively easy stretch where they collected 3 wins against the Panthers, Jaguars and Lions. However, in those 2 losses, they lost by 13 or more. Without Hayden Hurst and several other key defensive players, the Falcons may have a tough time beating the Bills.

The Bills have also been 3-2 in their last 5 but have played extremely well. In their 2 losses, both were by less than a touchdown and one was in overtime. Josh Allen has been on a bit of a roll lately 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games. The Bills defense has also been playing relatively well, holding Mac Jones to just 145 passing yards and getting 2 interceptions last week, while holding the Panthers to 14 points the week prior. I think this is an obvious pick, but I’m going with the Bills to cover the line here 

Mike’s NFL Pick:  Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-105)

Tony Battalio

The Atlanta Falcons have somehow managed to salvage their season after a tough start. They are coming into this week’s 17 game with a record of 7-8 and their playoff hopes on the line, needing a win. They have picked up some huge wins over the last handful of weeks to stay alive, however, they have struggled to beat the good teams, which could be their undoing this season. With an aging quarterback, the future of the Falcons is uncertain as this may be Matt Ryan’s last chance to make the playoffs with Atlanta. 

The Buffalo Bills have played themselves into a great spot after avenging their loss to the New England Patriots last weekend. They are sitting at 9-6 with the AFC East crown within reach and if by some disaster they fail to win the division they are still in a great spot for an AFC Wild Card spot. Buffalo is currently on a two-game winning streak. As for the result of this game I have the Buffalo Bills picking up the victory in this one at home to nearly secure themselves a spot in the playoffs. 

Tony’s NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills -14.5 (-105)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals – 1pm ET

This matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Cincinnati Bengals like most of the other games on their featured article has huge playoff implications. As Kansas City is looking to secure a bye week and the number one seed in the conference. While Cincinnati needs a win to lock the AFC North division up and continue being way ahead of schedule on their rebuild. 

Michael Lantz

A potential playoff matchup comes to Cincinnati, as the Bengals host the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs to start Sunday’s pivotal week 17. These two teams are a blast to watch on offense, as the Bengals passing attack led by Joe Burrow lead the league in yards per attempt. Burrow had possibly his best game in his brief NFL career last week as he threw 4 touchdowns and over 500 yards last week against division rival the Baltimore Ravens. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have this Patrick Mahomes guy who has thrown 33 touchdowns and over 4,000 yards on the season. Expect him to be extra lethal on Sunday as the Chiefs will be without starting running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the Bengals defense is one of the worst in the NFL at defending the pass. 

That being said, the Chiefs pass defense isn’t much better: they also rank in the top ten for most pass yards given up this season. So expect an air raid in this game—luckily the Bengals will have other options on offense, as Joe Mixon has been excellent this year, rushing for over 1100 yards and 13 touchdowns. It also helps that the Chiefs give up  4.7 yards per attempt on the ground, which is the sixth most in the NFL. While the home-field advantage and offensive stats favor the Bengals, the Chiefs are built for games like this. Mahomes makes his teammates better; so even without Edwards-Helaire the team should be plenty fine with backup Darrel Williams who’s been a trusty backup this year. This one is a tough one top pick for moneyline and spread, but with that total being at 51 and these two offense going at it, the over is the safest choice here.

Michael’s NFL Pick: Over 51 (-110)

Mike Su

The Chiefs are on a roll with 8 wins in a row, and not a single loss in 2 months. Last week they decisively handled the Steelers holding them to just 10 points. In fact, the defense, which was part of their poor early season play, has been playing extremely well, holding opponents to 10 or less points in 4 of the last 5 games which is phenomenal. Mahomes has also looked more like himself in the past 3 games with 8 touchdowns and just 1 interception. The Chiefs have everything going for them and a win here seemingly cements them as the number 1 seed in the AFC.


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However, the Bengals won’t lay over and let the Chiefs win. The Bengals are one of the first teams to have a 4,000 yard passer, 1,000 yard rusher and a duo of 1,000 yard receivers who are all under 25 years old on the same team. This young Bengals team is explosive on offense and may be able to match the pace of the Chiefs. Although the Chiefs defense is a lot better, they are necessarily a scary unit, meaning I think Burrow and the boys will be able to put up big points. Burrow has had a great few weeks after some mid season struggles with 7 touchdowns, no interceptions and a completion percentage of above 75% in the past 3 games, all of which were against tough defenses.The Bengals may very well upset the Chiefs so I’m not taking the money line here. I think the overs in this game may be the best market so that’s what I’m taking.

Mike’s NFL Pick: Over 51 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Kansas City Chiefs looked almost human at the beginning of the season. However they have now caught fire and once again look like they are going to make their third straight trip to the Super Bowl and potentially win their second title in three years. But first they will need to get through a Cincinnati Bengals team that has been one of the biggest surprises in the National Football League this season as many people expected them to finish towards the bottom of the league once more. The Kansas City Chiefs have eight games on the year, most of them by double digits. With a win and a Tennessee Titans loss the Chiefs would clinch the first seed in the AFC and be able to rest their guys for week 18. 

As previously stated the Cincinnati Bengals are the most surprising team of the season. That is mostly due to the fact that Joe Burrow has risen to superstar status this season and is in my opinion the National Football League Comeback Player Of The Year Award Winner this season. He has shown that he is likely a future NFL Most Valuable Player award winner as well at some point in his career. Despite all the success the Bengals have had this season, they still won’t win this one in my opinion. I have the Kansas City Chiefs picking up the victory in this high profile AFC contest.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-186)

Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans – 1pm ET

The Miami Dolphins come into this game with a record of 8-7 on the season as they are in must win mode. Meanwhile the Tennessee Titans are currently 10-5 on the year and only a single game out of the AFCs top seed which is currently held by the Kansas City Chiefs, who Tennessee beat earlier this season. 

Michael Lantz

With a nice win over the New Orleans Saints on Monday, the Miami Dolphins stayed alive in the AFC playoff race. Their defense was once again impressive, failing to give an injured Saints team any glimmer of hope, winning 20-3. Tua Tagovailoa did just enough to lead the team behind their strong defense and he got some big help from Jaylen Waddle, who is impressing in his rookie season with almost 1,000 yards. They’ll hope to advance to a 9-7 record, against the AFC South’s first-place Tennessee Titans. 

After a nail biting loss two weekends ago, the Tennessee Titans were able to bounce back last weekend against a good San Francisco 49ers team. Due to numerous injuries, the Titans haven’t played the prettiest games in recent weeks. But they’ve found a way to stay atop the division—barely. The Indianapolis Colts have won three games in a row, and are breathing down the Titans neck. It’s a huge game for both of these teams as they anxiously play for their playoff fate. But, I’ll go with the Dolphins to win; their pass defense is decent and without Derrick Henry, the Titans run offense isn’t terribly convincing. Meanwhile the Titans pass defense is one of the NFL’s worst, and even though Tua isn’t exactly piling up the stats, he should be able to get a big game from Waddle. 

Michael’s NFL Pick: Miami Dolphins (+134)

Mike Su

The Dolphins have completely turned their season around with their 7th win in a row which comes off the back of a 7 game losing streak. The Dolphins have had a relatively easy schedule in the last 7 games but scored a decisive win against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens during their streak. The Dolphins offense may struggle as they face a ferocious Titans defense who win not let anyone run the ball. The team is a defense first team and scores a lot of turnovers and short field position. The Defense has held teams to 10 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games and have been an interception machine scoring most of their interceptions for the season over the past few weeks. 

The Dolphins defense won’t be facing an easy unit though with the Titans and their often explosive passing game. The Titans are in somewhat of a rut with just 2 wins in their last 5 games. The rushing attack hasn’t been great over this time period which is not good going into a game against the league 7th best rushing defense. Therefore, the Titans need to generate offense through the air with Tannehill and the pair of Jones and Brown. I think if the Titans are unable to put points on the board through the air, this will be an extremely low scoring affair. The Dolphins will look to force the Titans to run the ball so I expect this game to go unders.

Mike’s NFL Pick: Under 39.5 (-105)

Tony Battalio

The Miami Dolphins trusted the process, and it’s finally starting to show signs of paying off. They may not be sitting here with 13 wins and a locked in playoff spot, but for now they are in the conversion as they enter this game with a record of 8-7 needing a win to stay alive. Tua has finally started to show signs that he is and can be a credible National Football League quarterback. Miami has won their last seven games on the year and are hotter than hot at the moment. However they may get a splash of cold water in this one, as they will be taking on a tough as nails Tennessee team that has found a way to win without Henry on the field. 

The previously mentioned Tennessee Titans are coming into this game with a record of 10-5 on the year. They are only a single game back of the first seed for the AFC. If they find a way to overtake the Kansas City Chiefs, with a win and a Chiefs loss this week since they own the tiebreaker over Kansas City the bye week would be huge for them. It would be huge due to the fact that the extra week off may allow them to get King Henry back for the playoffs, and that is a team I would not want to play at that point in the season. As for the result of this game, I have Tennessee picking up the victory and effectively ending the Dolphins playoff hopes for this season. 

Tony’s NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans (-158)

Las Vegas Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts – 1pm ET

The Las Vegas Raiders have been through tons of drama this season yet somehow they find themselves in a position to make the playoffs. They are coming into this game against a gritty Indianapolis Colts team who also needs a win to make the playoffs. Las Vegas comes into this game at 8-7 while Indianapolis is 9-6. 

Michael Lantz

The Indianapolis Colts are getting hot at the right time, winning their last three games; sitting one game out of Tennessee for first place in the division. They’re thrilled to have quarterback Carson Wentz out of COVID protocol right on time for Sunday’s game. The Colts have knocked out division leaders the past two weeks (Patriots, Cardinals) and they get to end their season against an awful Jaguars team. But, it’s important for them to not look beyond the Las Vegas Raiders this week. 

Las Vegas sit at 8-7; after being blown out by the Chiefs on 12/12, the team has one consecutive games against the Browns and Broncos to stay alive. Their defense has been the key to their recent success and with Darren Waller out this Sunday, they’ll need that side of the ball to continue to step up. It’s going to be tough against a thriving Colts team at Lucas Oil Stadium. Indy’s confidence is at an all-time high after recent weeks and I expect them to keep the momentum going on Sunday against the Raiders.

Michael’s NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts -8 (-110)

Mike Su

The Raiders take on the red hot Colts in a game that seems to have a predictable ending. The Raiders are deep in the wild card race after 2 key wins against the Broncos and Browns. The Raiders need to win out in order to even have a statistical chance of making the playoffs, but they will be facing a Colts team that won’t make it easy. Carr has been playing average to below average this season and has been bad in the last 3 games with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Somehow the Raiders have pulled out wins but this luck is bound to end.


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The Colts sit at 9-6 but are the best 9-6 team in the league. They have won 8 of their last 10 games and have had extremely close games in their 2 losses. Their first loss was by 3 points to the Titans and their second was a game where they came back from a huge deficit and nearly won. These are both earmarks of a good team who got best due to circumstance. The Colts are one of my favorites in the AFC to dethrone the Chiefs and they’ve proven why during this run. I think the Raiders are in for a rude awakening with a huge Colts win.

Mike’s NFL Pick: Colts -8 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Las Vegas Raiders have somehow put themselves in a position to be a part of the playoffs this season. Even after losing their head coach and star wide receiver mid season, and going on a lengthy losing streak. They come into this game with a record of 8-7 on the year. The Raiders have survived by the skin of their teeth as they have won their last two games over the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns by a combined 6 points as none of the teams involved in both games managed to score more than 20 points. Now they face their toughest test yet as they have to play against the potential MVP Johnathon Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. 

The previously mentioned Indianapolis Colts are coming into this game with a 9-6 record needing a win to keep pace in the AFC South and keep a lead in the AFC Wild Card race as well. The Colts have won their last three games and have picked up victories in six of their last seven games this season, after a slow start. As for the result of this game I expect the Indianapolis Colts to pick up the victory in this game as well and clinch their spot in the playoffs for this season.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts (-375)

Monday, January 3rd

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers – 8:15pm ET

This is the marquee matchup of the week and maybe even the season. As not only does it have both teams’ seasons on the line, it may also be Big Ben’s final home game as a Pittsburgh Steeler and potentially an NFL quarterback as well. The Cleveland Browns come into this game with a record of 7-8 on the year while the Steelers are 7-7-1 on the year. 

Michael Lantz

The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers faceoff on Monday night, as both teams look to keep their playoff hopes alive. They’re currently ranked 11th and 12th in the AFC but both sit just one-game behind the Miami Dolphins for the seventh-seed. Of course a few more teams sit in front of them as well, but one team will stay alive with a win while the other will have their postseason hopes shattered. 

The Cleveland Browns have dropped their last two: against the Raiders they were a bit depleted with COVID, turning to Nick Mullens to make the start at QB. Against the Packers last week, they just barely lost 24-22, but Baker Mayfield’s 4 interceptions were a major problem. He’ll hopefully clean that up against a Pittsburgh pass defense that is toward the bottom of the league in interceptions. Mayfield will also have a lot less pressure on him thanks to the Steeler’s awful rush defense, which has allowed the most yards in the NFL. It should allow Nick Chubb to have a great game on the ground as he’ll look to run over this Steelers defense.

But, as the Steelers proved a couple of weeks ago against Tennessee, they’re always ready for a big game at home. They’ll look to bounce back after a blowout loss last week against the Chiefs, as their entire season is on the line. We’ve discussed the Steelers defense, but their offense is a big question mark. Ben Roethlisberger will need to play like his Super Bowl winning self if this team has any chance. Even though this dysfunctional Browns team doesn’t convince me on the road, I think they matchup too well against this Steelers team. I’ll pick them to win. 

Michael’s NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns (-184)

Mike Su

The Steelers and Browns are both likely out of the playoffs but need wins here to even have the slightest chance. The Browns have been bad due to injuries to Baker Mayfield. They have had a horrible second half to the season with just 3 wins in the last 11 games. Despite showing flashes, theis Browns team is bound for mediocrity once again. They do face a relatively easy opponent with the Steelers who are in similarly poor form. The difference is that the Browns have the slight edge despite losing key cornerbacks. The Browns also have a huge edge in the rushing attack where the Browns out rush the Steelers by almost 60 yards per game. This is bad news for the Steelers who have the worst rushing defense in the league. 

The Steelers play their final home game of the season and the final home game of Big Ben’s career. The storied passer has long shown signs of decline and will hang out his cleats at the end of the season. Big Ben’s struggles have been highlighted by the struggles of the Steelers as a whole with a poor end to the season. Big Ben and the Steelers will be motivated to beat the Browns to have a somewhat good ending to his career at home. Watch for the Browns to run the ball down the Steelers’ throats all game and burn the clock. Unfortunately for Big Ben I think the Browns win this game but in the spirit of his impending retirement I’m jumping on the Unders instead.

Mike’s NFL Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Cleveland Browns always have a funny way of giving fans hope and ripping it away at the last moment. That looks like it is going to be repeated this season unless the dominos fall their way again. Not only would they need a win to remain alive in the division race, they will also need a Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens loss as well. The Wild Card picture gets even fuzzier for them as they have failed to take care of business the last two weeks against the Las Vegas Raiders and Green Bay Packers. Baker Mayfield may be playing for his job the last two weeks as his ability to lead this team is constantly being called into question as well, after his four interceptions against Green Bay on Christmas Day. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had a rough up and down season as well as they currently sit at 7-7-1, needing a victory over their arch-rival to keep their season alive. The Steelers have lost two of their last three games but do have a huge win over the Tennessee Titans. As for the result of this game however, I think the Cleveland Browns will find a way to win and keep their season alive while sending the Steelers home for the second straight season.

Tony’s NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns (-184)

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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.

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