Super Bowl LV
Date: February 7, 2021
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Super Bowl LV is just four days away, meaning there is no better time than now to break down the odds and markets for the biggest game of the NFL season.
Take a look at the Player Prop Bet Odds for Super Bowl LV below:
Anytime Touchdown Scorer:
Kansas City Chiefs Favorite: Travis Kelce (-175)
Kansas City Chiefs Sleeper: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+175)
After bringing in 11 touchdowns during the regular season and three touchdowns in the Chiefs two playoff games, Travis Kelce is the deserved favorite to once again find the end zone on Sunday. Kelce’s 11 receiving touchdowns were the fifth most in the NFL this season and the tight end is currently on a six-game touchdown streak.
In his return from injury, rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire accumulated just seven yards on six attempts against the Buffalo Bills, however still managed to find the end zone for his first career playoff touchdown, and fifth overall.
As was evident in the AFC Championship game, Kansas City clearly trusts Edwards-Helaire at the goal line which makes his +175 anytime touchdown odds all the more enticing, especially having had the week off to continue to heal his previously injured hip/ankle.
HE’S BAAAAAAACK 🐎
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 25, 2021
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Favorite: Leonard Fournette / Mike Evans (+115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sleeper: Cameron Brate (+250)
Leonard Fournette is the in form running back in Super Bowl LV, having scored four touchdowns in his last five regular season games as well as two touchdowns in his three playoff appearances.
Not only is Fournette in good form, but he is also a renowned big game player, having scored seven touchdowns in his six career playoff games with Jacksonville and Tampa Bay.
In terms of a scoring target in the air, Mike Evans is the deserved favorite to once again find the end zone. Evans has scored 15 touchdowns in his 19 regular season and playoff games for the Bucs this season, seven more than the next best Buccaneer.
In an offense littered with weapons, finding a ‘sleeper’ Buccaneer to score on Sunday is tough, however one thing we know for sure about Tom Brady is that he loves to utilise his tight ends, making Cameron Brate an enticing anytime touchdown scorer prospect at +250.
Brate brought in his third touchdown of the season in the NFC Championship game and with tight end coverage focusing primarily on Robert Gronkowski, Brate should be able to capitalise on a weaker matchup.
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 24, 2021
Player Receiving Yards Over/Under:
Kansas City Chiefs Receiver: Tyreek Hill 93.5 yards (-115/-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Receiver: Chris Godwin 74.5 yards (-115/-115)
Tyreek Hill’s reception line is one of the few Over/Under’s that has not shifted drastically based on the Chiefs vs Bucs Week 12 matchup. Hill brought in 13 receptions for 269 yards and three touchdowns when Kansas City last played in Tampa, including over 200 yards in the first quarter.
In his 17 games this season, Hill has exceeded the 93.5 yard mark just seven times, including four consecutive games between Week 8 and Week 12. However, two of those seven matchups were Kansas City’s recent playoff games against Cleveland (110 yards) and Buffalo (172 yards).
Hill also brought in 105 yards against San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV, which means he has 100+ receiving yards in each of his last three playoff games. Given his pace, reliability and presence on the big stage, Over 93.5 yards is the better selection at even money (-115/-115).
Despite only having two 100+ yard games throughout the regular season and playoffs, Chris Godwin has received 75+ yards in eight of his 15 matches this year, including two of the Buccaneers three playoff games and eight catch, 97 yard performance when the Bucs and Chiefs last met (Week 12).
Despite averaging 70.9 yards this season, Godwin is closing out the year in good form, with four 75+ receiving yard games in his last five outings. Godwin and Mike Evans were two of the biggest reasons that Tom Brady signed with the Buccaneers and they will both need to be at their best on the biggest stage for Tampa Bay to compete with the Chiefs.
A career-best 269 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2020
Player Rushing Yards Over/Under:
Kansas City Chiefs Running Back: Clyde Edwards-Helaire 30.5 yards (-115/115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Back: Leonard Fournette 47.5 yards (-115/115)
Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a tantalising touchdown proposition at +175, the Under for his rushing yards line should be favored as opposed to even money.
Yes, Edwards-Helaire has rushed for 30+ yards in all but three of his games this season, however following his hip/ankle injury that he sustained in Week 15, the rookie running back was side-lined up until the AFC Championship game against the Bills.
In that time, Darrel Williams and Mecole Hardiman have established themselves in the backfield, combining for 14 carries and 102 yards against Buffalo, while Edwards-Helaire managed just seven yards on six carries.
Having rushed for 30+ yards in 11 of his 14 NFL games, the Over is certainly on the cards. However, coming up against the No. 1 ranked rushing defense in the league in a Super Bowl, having played just one game in the past six weeks makes the Under the better selection.
Much has been discussed about Leonard Fournette or ‘Playoff Lenny’s’ ability to thrive in the postseason, however his stats support the fandom that the Bucs running back is receiving.
Fournette had just four regular season games that surpassed the 47.5 rushing yard mark. However, while playing 70% of snaps in the postseason, ‘Playoff Lenny’ is three from three, having rushed for 93 yards and a touchdown vs Washington, 63 yards vs New Orleans and 55 yards and a touchdown vs Green Bay.
Given that the Chiefs defense are much less effective against the run than they are against the pass, Tampa Bay will definitely run the ball through Fournette, making his Over for rushing yards the deserved favorite.
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) January 28, 2021
Player Receptions Over/Under:
Kansas City Chiefs: Travis Kelce 7.5 receptions (-150/+115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans 4.5 receptions (-110/-120)
Not much needs to be said for this one as Travis Kelce has passed the 7.5 reception mark in 11 of his 17 games this season, including nine of his past 10. Kelce is the Chiefs ‘Mr Reliable’ and the tight end will undoubtedly be targeted a lot to either give the Chiefs early momentum, pick up first downs or if the game gets tight. Justifying the -150 favoritism for the Over.
For Mike Evans this one if trickier. Not to say in any respect that the Chiefs offense is one dimensional, however with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II at the Bucs disposal, it is tough to make a call on how the Bucs will decide to move the ball on offense.
With an average of 4.2 receptions in his 19 regular season and playoffs games, statically the Under looks to be the better selection, especially having only accumulated four catches in Tampa’s last two playoff games combined (three vs Green Bay, one vs New Orleans).
However, with 1006 yards and 13 touchdowns to his name in the regular season, Evans is undeniably a big playmaker for Tampa Bay which will likely see plenty of passes thrown his way when the pressure is on.
Most 15+ yard receptions since 2019 (reg. season):
💥Travis Kelce – 70
💥Calvin Ridley – 67
💥Julio Jones – 63
💥Stefon Diggs – 60 pic.twitter.com/Cz4gQ4eLDz
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) January 29, 2021
Player Tackles + Assists:
Kansas City Chiefs: Derrick Ndadi 2.5 tackles + assists (-152/+115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jason Pierre-Paul 2.5 tackles + assists (-152/+115)
Although their highlights rarely feature on ‘SportsCenter’s Top 10’, the defenders in Super Bowl LV will play a huge role in deciding the result of this game.
Kansas City’s three year pro, Derrick Ndadi (DT) often flies under the radar but is an undeniable tackling machine. Ndadi has three or more tackles + assists in 10 of his 17 games this season, including an average of three tackles + assists in these playoffs.
Obviously, the Under presents the superior value, however with Tampa Bay expected to run the ball down Kansas City’s throat, big men like Ndadi will have ample opportunity to wrap up the likes of Leonard Fournette and Ronaald Jones II who will be trying to bust through Kansas City’s defensive line.
Like Ndadi, Bucs linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul has been one of the most formidable defenders in the league this season, registering more than three tackles + assists in 12 of his 17 games.
Pierre-Paul also had the 11th most sacks in the regular season with 9.5 and added a further 2.0 to that tally against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game.
Given that Chiefs offensive lineman Eric Fisher will not be suiting up in Super Bowl LV, Pierre-Paul will be looking to pressure and sack Patrick Mahomes in a similar fashion.
With 3+ solo tackles alone in eight of his 17 games, Pierre-Paul should comfortably combined for Over 2.5 tackles + assists on Sunday. And, given Eric Fisher’s absence, Pierre-Paul has a genuine chance to record his third sack of the postseason at -120.
— NFL (@NFL) February 2, 2021
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Stay tuned for more Super Bowl odds, news, picks and predictions every day this week as we countdown to Chiefs vs Bucs in Super Bowl LV
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