Super Bowl LV
Date: February 7, 2021
Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
Super Bowl LV is just one week away, meaning there is no better time than now to break down the odds and markets for the biggest game of the NFL season.
Take a look at the Main Markets for Super Bowl LV below:
Super Bowl Head To Head
If you cancel out their Week 17 loss to the Chargers (where they rested their starters), Kansas City’s singular loss for the season came against the Raiders back in Week 5.
The Chiefs juggernaut offense led by the three headed monster of Mahomes, Kelce and Hill saw Kansas City finish first in the league for total yards and passing yards per game, while also boasting the sixth most points per game third highest third-down conversion percentage and the 16th-best rushing attack. While Kansas City’s defense does not jump off the page statistically, they have made big play after big play when the Chiefs have needed them to.
As far as a challenger goes, Tom Brady and the 11-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be as fierce as they come when the 43 year old Bucs QB suits up in his 10th (Yes, 10th) Super Bowl.
Tampa Bay have undeniably hit form at the right time of the season, winning their final four games of the regular season before beating Washington, New Orleans and Green Bay on the road to advance to Super Bowl LV.
In his first season with the Bucs, Tom Brady has led Tampa Bay’s offense to the 11th most total yards, second most passing yards, 11th best third down conversion percentage and the third most points per game.
Although highlighted by their offense littered with weapons, the Bucs have been a solid defensive team throughout the regular season and playoffs. Tampa Bay allowed the ninth fewest total yards per game, while also ranking 21st against the pass, first against the run, and finished the regular season having allowed the eighth fewest points per game.
On paper, all things are pointing to Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Tom Brady on the hunt for ring number seven, cannot be discounted.
— NFL (@NFL) January 26, 2021
Super Bowl Line
Despite possessing one of the most talented offenses in the history of the league, the Chiefs haven’t been consistently blowing opponents away this season. In fact, Kansas City’s 14 point victory in the AFC Championship game last weekend was their first two score win since defeating the Jets 35-9 in Week 8.
In that 10 game stretch, the Chiefs have boasted a 9-1 win-loss record, however have only covered the spread in two of those games, resulting in an 8-10 record against the spread through their 18 games this season.
The Buccaneers were a better betting prospect throughout the 2020-21 season, with an 11-8 record against the spread. Since their 27-24 loss to the Chiefs in Week 12, Tampa Bay have won their last seven games boasting a 5-2 record against the spread.
Another thing that may suit the Bucs is that they are about to become the first team in the Super Bowl era to play in a Super Bowl in their home stadium. Tampa Bay have covered in five of their eight matchups at Raymond James Stadium this season, including that 27-24 loss to Kansas City in Week 12, when the Chiefs were -3.5 favorites.
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) January 25, 2021
Super Bowl Total Points
Over: 56.5 points (-110)
Under: 56.5 points (-100)
In terms of total points, Mahomes and Co. put their second best (No. 1, 43 points vs Denver, Week 7) performance of the season together against the Bills in last week’s AFC Championship game, putting up 38 points against Buffalo on 6.9 yards per play.
Kansas City’s 29.6 points per game is the sixth most points scored in the league this season, with their 415.8 total yards and 303.4 passing yards both league high’s. In their 18 games this season, the Chiefs are 9-9 when it comes to the Over-Under.
In their three playoff games this postseason, the Buccaneers are picking up 5.8 yards per play and have scored 31, 30 and 31 points respectively. As well as that, Tampa Bay closed out the regular season with back to back 40+ point games, putting up 47 points on the Lions (in just three quarters) and 44 points against the Falcons, extending their stretch of consecutive 30+ point games to six heading into Super Bowl LV.
The Bucs have put up 30.8 points per game this season, which is the third most in the league, while also having the second most passing yards (289.1) and seventh most total yards (384.1) across the NFL. In their 19 games this season, the Bucs are 11-8 when it comes to the Over-Under.
When you see the names Mahomes, Brady, Kelce, Evans, Hill and Godwin on paper, the Over looks like the obvious choice just based on the calibre of offensive weapons on display.
However, 56.5 points is the largest Over/Under that Tampa Bay have come up against this season and is tied with the Chiefs’ highest total (Week 11 @ Las Vegas) of their season. It is also the second-highest Super Bowl total ever, just a half-point less than Super Bowls XLIV and LI (both 57.0).
We scored more than 40 points in back-to-back weeks 🙌
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) January 3, 2021
*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of Bet365
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Image by: Mike Ehrmann