The NBA continues to pick up steam in the lead up to the playoffs and so do we! Six massive games to look forward to tonight, headlined by Donovan Mitchell’s Jazz heading to OKC to take on the Thunder and Luka Doncic’s Mavericks hosting the Nuggets in Dallas.
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Let’s get in to Wednesday’s picks.
Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers
7:00PM ET
Top Pick Against the Spread
76ers -8.0
The 76ers may be severely depleted by injury, but they remain one of the league’s premier home teams and should easily be able to account for a Pistons team which has thrown in the towel for this season.
Remarkably, after going 1-3 on a recent road trip, the Sixers are now 10-24 on the road and 28-2 at home for the season; one of the most disparate marks in the history of the league. They remain without Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson who are all injured – Embiid has missed the past five games, Simmons has been out for the past seven and Richardson has missed the last three.
However – and this is an enormous “however” – there are whispers that both Embiid and Richardson may be able to return tonight. Needless to say, that’s a huge boost for a team that will play five of their next six games at home.
The Pistons, meanwhile, have lost their last four games in a row and are just 9-23 on the road this season. Their most recent loss was especially troubling, 96-84 to the Knicks in New York on Sunday. The Pistons missed 15 of 19 shots in the fourth quarter.
At home the Sixers have won 14 straight games and are 18-10-2 ATS for the season, while the Pistons are just 13-18-1 ATS as a road team – the fifth-worst mark in the NBA. They’re also 0-5 ATS in their last five against Philly.
The stats are overwhelming. We’re backing Philadelphia against the spread.
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat
7:30PM ET
Top Pick Against the Spread
Heat -11.5
Speaking of incredible home teams, the league’s third-best home team hosts the Hornets tonight at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Miami has the third-best home record in the NBA at 27-4 straight, while the Hornets are just 12-21 on the road and have lost four of their last five games. On Monday night, the Hornets lost a heartbreaker in double overtime to the host Atlanta Hawks, 143-138.
The Heat, meanwhile, snapped a four-game road losing streak on Sunday night, beating the Washington Wizards, 100-89. While their road form has been a bit suspect, they’re the best home team in the league against the spread, putting up a remarkable 20-10-1 record and covering 66.7% of the time; Philadelphia are next best with 64.3%.
Even when narrowing that statistic to just when they’re a home favorite, the Heat are still the third-best in the league with a 17-9-1 record.
Even with consistent home lines in double digits the Heat just don’t seem to lose against the spread at home. We’re backing them until proven otherwise.
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
8:00PM ET
Top Pick Against the Spread
Thunder -2.5
This is a matchup which may have huge playoff implications, as the surging Thunder could move in to a share of fourth place in the West with a win over the Jazz tonight.
OKC have won three straight games and are 17-5 in their last 22 contests. Remarkably, 11 of their wins during that stretch have come by 10 or fewer points. Overall, the Thunder have won 29 games when games are in “clutch” situations — the margin is five points or less in the final five minutes.
Utah, meanwhile, have won five of their last six overall and six consecutive road games. However, they’re just 2-8 ATS in their last 10, and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games against the Thunder.
In the single most telling stat about this matchup, the Thunder have won 18 of their last 19 games played in Oklahoma City against the Jazz.
That’s more than enough of a trend for us. We’re backing the Thunder to get the job done at home.
Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks
8:00PM ET
Top Pick Against the Spread
Nuggets +1.5
The Mavericks’ star guard Luka Doncic is questionable for this matchup, and that makes us questionable about his team’s chances of covering the line.
Dallas were shocked by the Spurs on the road last night, falling behind by 10 points to a team missing Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl and harboring a sore LaMarcus Aldridge. San Antonio had seven players in double figures in snapping a two-game skid. Rudy Gay scored 17 points, Trey Lyles had 14 points and 11 rebounds and DeRozan added 13 points and 12 assists.
That was a really disappointing performance from the Mavericks, who consequently fall to 39-27 overall and seventh in the West. Doncic dropped 38 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, but continued to favor his right thumb / wrist and was noticeably hurt at times. We’d be surprised if he plays the second leg of this back-to-back.
The Nuggets, meanwhile, improved to 43-21 with a 109-95 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks. Jamal Murray was the leading scorer for the team with 21 points, while Paul Millsap scored 20 and Jerami Grant chipped in with 19.
Without Doncic (check back for his status closer to game time), this balanced Nuggets defense/offense should be well-enough equipped to take care of a Mavericks side which will be leaning heavily on Kristaps Porzingis for their scoring load.
We’re backing the Nuggets ATS.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
10:30PM ET
Top Pick Against the Spread
Kings +1.5
Final game of the night is a doozy with enormous playoff implications, as the Kings host the Pelicans in Sacramento.
These two teams are tied for ninth in the West heading in to tonight, with just 18 games remaining on the NBA schedule. Sacramento have surged back in to playoff contention, winning seven of their last 10 to shake off an early-season malaise.
The Pelicans won the one (and only) matchup between the two teams back on January 4th 117-115, but that scoreboard is deceiving. The Kings missed a stack of free throws, with De’Aaron Fox going just five of 11 from the line to all-but cost his team the game.
Fox has improved that area of his game drastically in recent weeks, going 37 of 40 over his last five games.
Consequently, the Kings have gone 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games and in the box seat for a spot in the playoffs. In a must-win home game, we’re backing them against the spread.
We’ve put in the research so you don’t have to! However, gambling is unpredictable by nature so unfortunately we can’t guarantee any results.
All odds and markets through Caesars unless otherwise stated.
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