Free MLB Picks Today: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds 9/28/22

Free MLB Picks Today: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds 9/28/22
Wed 28th September 2022

The Pittsburgh Pirates (58-97) host the Cincinnati Reds (60-95) at PNC Park on Wednesday with the home team in position to sweep the three-game series. The Pirates lead the series 2-0 after winning 4-1 on Tuesday, their sixth straight head-to-head victory and 11th in 18 games this season. Wil Crowe threw two scoreless innings out of the bullpen to get the win, and David Bednar earned his 18th save with a scoreless ninth. Ji Hwan Bae went 2 for 3 with a double and one run in the win over the Reds.

ON THE MOUND

Luis Cessa (4-4, 4.78 ERA) is in line to start for Cincinnati. The righty allowed three runs (two earned) over 4.2 innings in his last start, a 5-3 home defeat against the Brewers on Friday. He was charged with the loss, giving up six hits while striking out three and walking four. Cessa has made one previous start against the Pirates this season, a 6-1 home loss on September 13. He surrendered five runs on eight hits over 5.2 innings, striking out five and walking one. For Pittsburgh, right-hander Bryse Wilson (3-9, 5.95 ERA) gets the ball. He has made three appearances against the Reds this season, all starts, giving up 10 runs (7 ER) over 19.1 innings (1-1, 3.26) with 12 strikeouts and two walks. In his last start on Friday, Wilson took a no-decision at home against the Cubs. He threw five innings and gave up two runs on five hits, striking out five and walking three in the 6-5 loss.

AT THE PLATE

Over the last five games, Cincinnati has averaged only 2.2 runs a game, down from their season average of 4.1, while slashing worse across the board (.182/.254/.260). Against righties like Wilson this season, the Reds have a .670 OPS, fourth lowest in the league. Kyle Farmer is the team’s most potent producer against right-handers with a .605 OPS in 361 at-bats. Pittsburgh is averaging 5.2 runs per game in the last five, up from 3.6 for the season, with a higher slash line (.245/.337/.390). The Bucs have a .654 OPS against right-handers in 2022, third lowest in the league. With a .826 OPS over 369 at-bats, Bryan Reynolds has been their best hitter against right-handers.

HOME AND AWAY

Cincinnati is 29-48 in away games in 2022, scoring 3.6 runs per game while allowing 4.9 runs. Pittsburgh has gone 31-46 at PNC Park this season, averaging 3.8 runs per game while surrendering 5.2. In the last 10 games between the NL Central rivals at PNC Park, each club has won five, though Cincinnati has the scoring advantage with an average final margin of 4.6-3.2.

STANDINGS UPDATE

The Reds are fourth in the NL Central, 30 games behind the division-leading Cardinals. The Pirates are fifth in the NL Central, 32 games behind the Cardinals.

SportsTips’ MLB Pick:

Cincinnati Reds (-120)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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