Free MLB Picks Today: Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins 10/1/22

Free MLB Picks Today: Milwaukee Brewers vs Miami Marlins 10/1/22
Sat 1st October 2022

The Milwaukee Brewers (+140) host the Miami Marlins (-165) at American Family Field on Saturday. Expect runs to come at a premium with the early total at 6 (O: -115 | U: -105). The Brewers (84-73) evened the series 1-1 after winning 1-0 on Friday, their third head-to-head victory in five games this season. Starter Corbin Burnes threw eight scoreless innings for the win, and Devin Williams struck out the side in the ninth to earn his 15th save. Garrett Mitchell went 2 for 3 with a double and one run in the win. Lewin Diaz was 2 for 3 for the Marlins (65-92).


Edward Cabrera (6-4, 3.15 ERA) is in line to take the mound for Miami. The RHP allowed three runs over 3.2 innings in his last start, a 6-1 road defeat against the Nationals on Sunday. He took the loss, giving up six hits while striking out three.Southpaw Aaron Ashby (2-10, 4.50 ERA) gets the start for Milwaukee. He has made one prior appearance against the Marlins this season, holding opposing hitters scoreless over four innings in a 7-3 road win on May 15. He didn’t give up a hit and struck out eight in the no-decision.In his last appearance on Sunday, Ashby pitched in relief on the road against the Reds. He threw 1.2 innings and gave up one run on two hits, walking two, in the 2-1 loss.


Over the last five games, Miami has averaged 3.0 runs a game, a small drop compared to their season average of 3.6. Against southpaws like Ashby this season, the Fish have a .594 OPS, lowest in the league. Miguel Rojas is the team’s strongest hitter against left-handers with a .556 OPS in 118 at-bats.Milwaukee is averaging only 2.2 runs per game in the last five, down from 4.5 for the season, with their slash line dropping across the board (.219/.275/.342). The Brew Crew have a .747 OPS against righties in 2022, fifth highest in the league. With a .365 OBP over 343 at-bats, Christian Yelich has their highest on-base percentage against right-handers.


Miami is 33-46 in away games in 2022, scoring 3.6 runs per game while allowing 4.1 runs. Milwaukee has gone 44-32 in front of their home fans this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game while surrendering 4.0. In the last 10 games at American Family Field between the teams, each club has won five, though Miami has the scoring advantage with an average final margin of 5.4-2.8.


The Marlins are fourth in the NL East, 33 games behind the division-leading Mets. The Brewers are second in the NL Central, seven games behind the Cardinals. They are fourth in the Wild Card race, two games out of a postseason position.

SportsTips’ MLB Pick:

Milwaukee Brewers

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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