Free MLB Picks Today: Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 10/5/22

Free MLB Picks Today: Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks 10/5/22
Wed 5th October 2022

The early total has been set at 7 runs with the under a -120 favorite. The Brewers (86-75) lead the series 2-0 after winning 3-0 on Tuesday, their third head-to-head victory in six games this season. Starter Eric Lauer threw six scoreless, no-hit innings – striking out seven – to get the win, and Peter Strzelecki earned his first save of the season with a scoreless ninth. Luis Urias went 3 for 4 with a home run and a double in the win over the Diamondbacks (73-88). He drove in two runs. Garrett Mitchell added a solo home run.


Merrill Kelly (13-8, 3.13 ERA) is in line to start for Arizona. The righty allowed eight runs over 4.2 innings in his last start, a 10-4 home defeat against the Giants on Friday. He took the loss, giving up nine hits while striking out two and walking two. Kelly has made one previous start against the Brewers this season, a 5-0 home victory on September 1. He allowed four hits over seven scoreless innings, striking out seven. Righty Corbin Burnes (12-8, 2.98 ERA) will toe the rubber for Milwaukee. He has made one prior start against the Diamondbacks this season, giving up five runs over 5.2 innings in an 8-6 road win on September 3. He gave up seven hits and walked three, while striking out five in the no-decision. In his last start on Friday, Burnes got the win at home against the Marlins. He threw eight scoreless innings and gave up four hits, striking out seven, in the 1-0 triumph. The righty leads the NL in strikeouts (238).


Over the last five games, Arizona has averaged 4.0 runs a game, a small drop compared to their season average of 4.3. Against righties like Burnes this season, the D-backs have a .702 OPS. Daulton Varsho is the team’s best performer against right-handers with a .803 OPS in 408 at-bats. Milwaukee is averaging only 3.2 runs per game in the last five, down from 4.5 for the season, with their slash line dropping across the board (.206/.292/.339). The Brew Crew have a .744 OPS against right-handers in 2022. With a .493 SLG over 350 at-bats, Rowdy Tellez has been their best power hitter against right-handers.


Arizona is on a three-game losing streak away from Chase Field, bringing their record to 33-47 in 2022. The D-backs have scored 4.3 runs per game away from home, while allowing 4.7 runs. Milwaukee has gone 46-34 at their home ballpark this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game while surrendering 4.0. Milwaukee is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings at American Family Field with an average scoreline of 5.1-2.3.


The Diamondbacks are fourth in the NL West, 37 games behind the division-leading Dodgers. They are sixth in the Wild Card race, 14 games out of third. The Brewers are second in the NL Central, seven games behind the Cardinals. They are fourth in the Wild Card race, one games out of a postseason position.

SportsTips’ MLB Pick:

Milwaukee Brewers (-200)

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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of BetMGM.

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