Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Seattle Mariners @ Tampa Bay Rays – 1.10PM ET
The Mariners and Rays will kick off our Wednesday afternoon of Major League Baseball at Tropicana Field for what will be the final match of their three game series in Tampa Bay.
Jesse Livermore
Although the Mariners have won the opening two games of this series on the road, I am going to take the Rays to bounce back at home in the final game of this series on Wednesday. It is important to note that Seattle dropped two games to the lowly Rangers in Texas prior to this series and given that Tampa Bay are at home and have an advantage in the pitching matchup, I can’t go past them for this encounter. Ray’s starter Josh Fleming owns a dominant 2.23 ERA at home this season, while Mariners starter Logan Gilbert has allowed seven runs in his last two starts, throwing just 8.1 innings in that time.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-162)
Tim Newton
Seattle has all of the momentum in this clash but can they complete the sweep? Neither pitching option is really inspiring for the series finale, however given Tampa Bay is at home in this one, they may have the edge. Josh Fleming, starter for the Rays, has a 4.15 ERA for the season and had a massive 7.31 ERA during July. However, as mentioned above, that drops to just 2.23 at home and it should help his side get an early edge. Especially with a rookie starting on the other side as Seattle has Logan Gilbert with ball in hand first. Rookies typically struggle on the road and last time he faced the Rays, Gilbert gave up four runs in just 5.2 innings, which isn’t a good sign for this clash.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-162)
Katherine Mouradian
The Mariners have been playing out of their skin on the road in the opening two games of this series, winning both of them. But if you look at the Mariners last 13 games on a Wednesday, they have only won two of them. It gets better if you look at the Mariners last seven games when they were the underdog, they have won five of them. On the flip side, the Rays have won 39 of their previous 56 games as the favorite and 46 of their previous 67 when it comes to the third game of a series. Also, the Rays have won 35 of their previous 52 meetings when playing against the Mariners. I think the Rays are too good of a team to lose three games in a row against the Mariners.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-162)
Josh Fleming had a career-high 7 strikeouts in his 5 inning performance! @RaysBaseball postgame on Bally Sports Sun! #RaysUp pic.twitter.com/Ph1maZktoA
— Bally Sports Florida & Bally Sports Sun (@BallySportsFL) July 31, 2021
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees – 7.05PM ET
A pair of AL East rivals will wrap up their three game divisional series on Wednesday night in New York when the third placed Yankees host the last placed Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium.
Jesse Livermore
Even though New York dropped their series opener at home on Monday, I am going to take the Yankees to close out this series with a second consecutive victory on Wednesday, giving them a 2-1 record from their three game set against the division’s last placed Orioles and a 6-2 record from their last eight games overall. Both starters have been in superb form in the second half of the 2021 regular season, as Matt Harvey owns a 3-0 record and 0.00 ERA in 18.1 innings (three starts) since the All Star break, while James Taillon is also 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA from 18 innings (three starts) since the break. However, Harvey still owns 6.20 ERA in 2021 and he is due to regress, while Taillon has put together a much larger sample size of strong performances. The Yankees right hander has a 6-0 record and 2.11 ERA over 42.2 innings in his last seven starts and I like him to lead New York to a win at home on Wednesday. Especially when considering that the Yankees need these victories to stay in contention for a 2021 playoff berth.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees (-290)
Tim Newton
After a shocking opener to the series, losing 1-7, the Yankees turned things around last night, winning 13-1. They now have all of the momentum and I think New York could make this ugly. DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo, Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton each scored two runs and now they will have Matt Harvey pitching to them in this one. Harvey has just a 6-10 record from his 21 starts and has a massive 6.20 ERA for the season, a number that stays high at 5.77 when pitching on the road. That should be more than enough for the talented New York offense to get off in this one, putting runs on the board like last night.
Tim’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees / Over 9.5 (+145)
Katherine Mouradian
Well, hasn’t this been a high scoring series! The first game was won by the Orioles 7-1, and the Yankees dominated in the second game and restored order to the MLB world, winning 13-1. Looking at the stats now, the Orioles have won just 22 of their previous 68 games on grass, and have won just 16 of their previous 54 games when playing a team in the AL East. The Yankees have some great stats, they have won 11 out of their previous 12 games on a Wednesday and they have won 41 of their previous 60 playing a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Yankees should be able to make another statement win on Wednesday night.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-152)
Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays – 7.07PM ET
The Toronto Blue Jays will continue their first Canadian homestand of the 2021 season on Wednesday night when they take on the Cleveland Indians for the third match of their four at Rogers Stadium.
Jesse Livermore
Although Cleveland drew first blood in this series in Toronto, I am going to take the Blue Jays to record a second consecutive victory against the Indians on Wednesday, which will improve them to 2-1 in this four game series and 5-1 from their six games at Rogers Stadium this season. Especially when considering that Minnesota will be sending Jean Carlos Mejia to the mound for his 14th start of the year. Mejia comes into this matchup with a 1-6 record and 7.60 ERA so far this season, to go along with a 1-4 record and 8.33 ERA on the road. Seeing as Toronto’s lineup is averaging 5.16 runs per game in 2021, I can’t go past the Blue Jays winning and winning comfortably at home on Wednesday night.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)
Tim Newton
It was surprising to see Cleveland steal the opener, given how well Toronto had been playing at home, but things returned to the way they should last night, with the Blue Jays winning 7-2. Now they have reclaimed momentum, are at home for just the sixth time this season and Cleveland have Jean Carlos Mejia starting, I think Toronto could win this extremely comfortably. Mejia is just 1-6 from 13 appearances, 10 of which were starts and has an ERA of 7.60, a number that increases to 8.33 when pitching on the road. Steven Matz, Toronto’s starter, is 8-6 with a 4.58 ERA and while it may be higher than you like, it will be more than enough for the Blue Jays to get ahead early and be too far ahead.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 / Over 9.5 (+200)
Katherine Mouradian
These two teams have gone tit-for-tat so far in this series, so it will be interesting to see who will be able to wrestle some momentum for this Wednesday night clash. When looking at the Indians’ games on the road, they seem to be struggling winning just three of their previous 12 (when the total was set at 9-10.5). They have also won just seven of their previous 23 games when playing a team with a winning record. On the flip side, the Blue Jays have won five of their previous 21 games when playing at home and versus a team that has a winning record. But I think this clash is definitely one the Blue Jays can win, especially if Matz can bounce back.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-225)
We’re 4-1 at home! 🇨🇦 #WeAreBlueJays pic.twitter.com/FJmmyPXZlq
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) August 4, 2021
New York Mets @ Miami Marlins – 7.10PM ET
A pair of NL East rivals will meet for the third match of their three game series at Marlins Park on Wednesday when the last placed Miami Marlins host the first placed New York Mets.
Jesse Livermore
Although this matchup is between the division’s last placed Marlins and the division’s first placed Mets, I am going to take Miami at home for the third game of this series. Not only are the Marlins up 2-0 in this series heading into game three on Wednesday, but Miami actually boasts the second best run differential in their division, +2, bettering New York’s -11 differential. As well as that, the Mets have been struggling at the mound since ace Jacob deGrom was placed on the IL and although Carlos Carrasco will be making his second start of the season on Wednesday, the right hander is likely going to be on a pitch count as he continues his return from a long term hamstring injury. Miami’s Zach Thompson is also in the middle of a phenomenal rookie campaign that has seen him earn a 2.33 ERA through eight starts, and I like the young right hander to get the better of New York’s struggling lineup on Wednesday night.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Miami Marlins (+138)
Tim Newton
The bottom of the NL East Marlins have taken the first two against the top of the NL East Mets and it will be interesting to see if they can sweep the series. New York has Carlos Carrasco starting after returning from a hammy injury, and he performed admirably in his first game back, allowing just one run from four innings of work. It is just tough to judge whether his body will allow him to extend further and whether the Mets offense can turn things around, especially against a Miami bullpen that is at home and has the fourth best ERA for the season. Despite being just a rookie, Zach Thompson is a big part of that impressive bullpen as he has an ERA of just 2.33, while in his last start he allowed just one run from 5.2 innings. His exceptional work with the ball in his hand gives Miami an edge, one that could earn them a sweep in the series.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Miami Marlins (+138)
Katherine Mouradian
Despite being at the top of the NL East and the Marlins being at the bottom (and 9.5 games behind) the Marlins have been winning some fairly tight tussles, winning the first game 6-3, and the second game 5-4. The Mets have won seven of their previous nine games on a Wednesday, but won just three of their previous 10 when playing a team that has a losing record, and they have won just two of their previous eight games when playing another team in the NL East. When it comes to the Marlins, they have won two of their previous 10 with a total of between 7 and 8.5, they have won five of their previous 20 when playing a starter that has a WHIP which is less than 1.15. I’ll be going with the Marlins with this one, as I trust starter Thompson more than Carrasco, to get the job done.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Miami Marlins (+138)
San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks – 9.40PM ET
The San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks will conclude our Wednesday evening MLB schedule at Chase Field. This will be the third match of a four game divisional series between these two NL West rivals.
Jesse Livermore
Although his recent form has been poor, it is impossible to go past the Giants in Arizona with Kevin Gausman taking the mound for San Francisco. Gausman has allowed 11 earned runs in his last three starts, however the right hander still owns a 9-5 record and 2.35 ERA this season. Wednesday’s clash is the perfect opportunity for the NL Cy Young candidate to return to his early season form, as he will be throwing to a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 23rd in runs per game this season. As well as their advantage in the pitching matchup, San Francisco also are the much better offensive team and they even play defense better. Given that Zach Gallen has been a serviceable starter in his own right for Arizona, I can’t see this being a high scoring game, however with Gausman at the mound I am going to take the Giants.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: San Francisco / U 8.5 (+209)
Tim Newton
Surprisingly, the Diamondbacks stole one last night, beating the Giants 3-1. That was San Fransisco’s third loss from their last nine games, playing in exceptional form at the moment. Meanwhile Arizona has now beaten the Dodgers and Giants at least once of their last two series, however with LA going on to win the series, I’m expecting San Francisco to do the same. They have Kevin Gausman starting for them and he has been great this season, going 9-5 with an ERA of 2.35. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks have Zac Gallen starting who is just 1-5 from 12 starts and has an ERA of 4.61. Given San Francisco have a top five offense and Arizona’s is in the bottom five this season, the Giants should be able to get on top while restricting the scoring of the home team.
Tim’s MLB Pick: San Francisco -1.5 (-110)
Katherine Mouradian
A clash of the NL West titans and the team that is 34.5 games behind them, yep it’s the Giants vs the Diamondbacks in the third game of this series. The Diamondbacks surprised a lot of people when they won yesterday, 3-1, and even in the first game of this series, they took the Giants to the 10th innings! Now, let’s look at some important stats…the Giants have won all of their previous six games on the road when playing a right handed starter, and they have won 13 of their previous 16 when it comes to the third game of a series. The Diamondbacks have won just 11 of their previous 67 games when they are the underdog, and just six of their previous 27 games when they are playing at home as the underdog. Despite the Diamondbacks playing out of their skin at the moment, the Giants will be too good for them on Wednesday night.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (-194)
Absolute 🤢 from @KevinGausman. pic.twitter.com/lFoRWbguCq
— MLB (@MLB) June 23, 2021
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel
