Our free MLB Picks are out for Wednesday, August 18th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants – 3.45PM ET
The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants conclude their three game series this afternoon and the latter will be looking for a clean sweep. New York has now lost five straight games while San Francisco has the best record in the majors, four games clear of the next best team.
Tim Newton
While the Giants should simply win this game, after winning the previous two, this series has been a lot closer than expected and I think this may be a danger game for the home team. The Mets bullpen allows them to stick around in games and given they are starting Tylor Megill, I think they could do the same here. Megill has a very modest 3.42 ERA, which should be enough to keep the Mets in this one, however he has the worst ERA of their three starting pitchers so far in this series, and it still hasn’t been enough to help them come out on top. The issue is the Mets offensive lineup can’t score enough runs, especially against the good sides. San Francisco isn’t just a good side, they are an incredible side and they should come out and win this, however I’m sticking with the fact that it could be a danger game.
Tim’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (-152)
LONG💣RIA pic.twitter.com/KfBxTqHms3
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) August 18, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
This is the third and final game of this series, and the Giants are showing just why they are one of the top teams in the league this year, winning the first two games. The Mets have now lost five games in a row, but this includes losses to the Dodgers and the Giants – two top teams in the league. The Mets have also won eight of their previous 10 games on a Wednesday and won just three of their previous 12 when playing a team with a right handed starter. When it comes to the Giants, they have won 14 of their previous 17 when it comes to the third game of a series and 20 of their previous 27 games on a Wednesday. The Mets have been surprisingly close in the scoreline with the Giants in the first two games, but I think this will be the game that the Giants break the shackles and just let rip!
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+126)
Mike Su
The red-hot juggernaut Giants sit on 78 wins, which is the best in the MLB by a good margin, and they are 9-1 in their last 10 games. The Mets on the other hand are in poor form despite their 10.2% chance of making the playoffs. The Mets have lost 5 in a row and have lost 7 of their last 10 games – they are seemingly giving away their playoff chances. The two NL teams will play in San Francisco for game 3 of this series, where the Mets have lost every game. The Mets are also 0-8 in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record, so don’t look at them to change this for the Giants. You don’t have to go very deep into the analytics to see how much trouble the Mets are in. Giants take this game easily.
Mike’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+126)
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees – 7.05PM ET
The AL East showdown, with massive postseason ramifications, concludes tonight with the New York Yankees taking both games from the Boston Red Sox. With both games being played yesterday, Boston will be hoping that a new day will rejuvenate their offense, only scoring three runs across the two games.
Tim Newton
New York has now won five straight games, including the first two of this series, but I am worried about how the finale may turn out. Andrew Heaney is starting on the mound and he has been far from ideal this season, posting a 7-8 record with a big 5.78 ERA from 21 starts. In his three starts for the Yankees, since coming across from the Angels, he has given up 4+ on each occasion and that is dangerous against a Boston side that, while out of form at the moment, has scored 16 runs and 20 runs throughout the last week. The Red Sox should also be boosted by the fact that they have Nick Pivetta starting, given he is 9-5 this season with an ERA of 4.20. However, when on the road this improves greatly, being 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA. I don’t know if I can trust the Red Sox, but they offer some pretty good value in this matchup so I am happy to test the water.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (+100)
Katherine Mouradian
Both the Red Sox and the Yankees are five games behind the AL East leading Rays, which makes a win tonight even more valuable! Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they have lost both the opening games in this series and really need to get a win in the books. The Red Sox have a decent longer record on Wednesday games, winning 59 of their previous 87, but they have won just one of their previous six games on the road. The Yankees have managed to win 17 of their previous 22 games when they are the favorite and in their past 29 games overall, they have won 21 of them. Heaney was traded to the Yankees, and he has been playing poorly ever since. I just can’t put my money on the Yankees for this one, I’m on the Red Sox to get a much needed win.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (+100)
Mike Su
Two of the most storied franchises in the MLB battle in the third game of this series. The Red Sox have lost the past 2 games against the Yankees who are seemingly returning to form just in time for the playoffs. Boston has been held to a total of 3 runs over the past 2 games which amounts to an average of 1.5 runs per game which is far from their 4.233 season average. Boston does have a relatively good offense despite the low run average so I expect them to revert to the mean. This is a crucial game playoff wise for both teams as they sit essentially equal in the standings. You would expect New York to seal the deal here but when looking deeper into this matchup, the Red Sox have won 10 of the 15 games the 2 two teams have played against each other. Don’t expect Boston to roll over and lose this one. The Red Sox also have the edge in pitching as they are starting Nick Pivetta who edges out Yankees pitcher Andrew Heaney in every statistic. I think Boston has a surprise bounce back game here.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (+100)
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins – 7.10PM ET
The Atlanta Braves have dominated the Miami Marlins through the first two games of this season and for the third straight game of this preview, a team has the chance to finish the series with a sweep. Miami have only mustered two runs through the first two games, at home, so they will be hoping for a better performance to close it out.
Tim Newton
As mentioned, Miami hasn’t been able to get anything going offensively, managing just two runs from two games. It doesn’t matter who you are going up against, that simply isn’t good enough. Meanwhile, Atlanta has scored 14 runs, including 12 in the opener, controlling every aspect of this series. Following the trend of the series so far, Atlanta’s starting pitcher is far superior to Miami’s and we could see a similar result in this one. Jesus Luzardo, the starter for the Marlins, is just 4-5 this season with a whopping 7.52 ERA and that should allow Atlanta to continue their hot streak going. Adding to that, Atlanta is starting Charlie Morton and he has been exceptional this year, posting an 11-4 record with a 3.49 ERA and this one could honestly be a blow out.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-113)
Katherine Mouradian
The Marlins put up a better fight in the second game, but it still wasn’t good enough to get a win in the books against the Braves. The Braves now lead in this series 2-0, and in the NL East, the Marlins are now 13 games behind the Braves (and in last place). Considering where the two teams are on the ladder, all the stats back the Braves here. The Braves have won all eight of their previous games on the road and are on a five game winning streak. On to the Marlins now, they have won four of their previous five games at home, and have won three out of their previous five. When these two teams face off in Miami, the Braves have won 63 of the previous 94 games. I’ll be on the Braves for a convincing win here tonight.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-111)
There is a new squad atop the NL East.
For the first time all season, the @Braves are in sole possession of first place. 👀 pic.twitter.com/JEHp92Tq3S
— MLB (@MLB) August 15, 2021
Mike Su
In a NL East Division matchup, the top of the division Braves take on the bottom of division Marlins. This game should be uneventful as the Marlins are playing meaningless baseball while the Braves are clinging on to their 2.5 game lead of the division, over the Phillies. The Braves look in good form winning 8 of their last 10 and are currently enjoying a 5 game winning streak. The Marlins on the other hand are playing for nothing and have won just 4 of their last 10. Things look even worse for the Marlins when you look at the pitching situation. The Marlins are starting the relatively unknown Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo has 34 career games played and has barely pitched this season, which is likely the result of his unworldly 7.52 ERA which in simple terms is garbage. On the other side, the Braves are bringing out the big guns to ensure they hold their lead. The Braves are starting Charlie Morton at pitcher who is 11-4 this season with a 3.49 ERA and has 155 strikeouts this year. The Braves win this by a wide margin.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-111)
Oakland Athletics @ Chicago White Sox – 8.10PM ET
In what was supposed to be a heavyweight clash between two of the American League’s best, this series has actually been a bit of a fizz out, mainly due to the Oakland Athletics’ form. The Chicago White Sox have dominated the series, winning the first two games by a combined 14-2.
Tim Newton
Not only has Chicago dominated the first two games of this series, they are now starting Lance Lynn for this third game. Lynn has been a top level pitcher all season, evidenced by his 10-3 record and 2.26 ERA. Adding to this, Lynn will come out with a point to prove after giving up four runs, the second most he has all season, in a game they almost lost to the Yankees. His class should just add to the A’s offensive woes in this season, making more of a gap than there has already been. Cole Irvin, Oakland’s starter, is good in his own right, posting a 3.52 ERA this season, but the White Sox offense is rolling and it won’t be enough to help his side out tonight. I like Chicago to make this series 3-0 tonight.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-190)
Katherine Mouradian
We are halfway in this series, and so far the White Sox have been fairly dominant, winning both games. The White Sox have a fairly big gap at the top of the AL Central, whereas the Athletics are now two and a half games behind the AL West leading Astros. The Athletics have won 53 of their previous 69 games when playing a team in the AL Central and have won 46 of their previous 67 games on a Wednesday. Looking now at the White Sox, they have won five of their previous seven games when playing a team that has a winning record and they have won 82 of their previous 120 games when they are starting as the favourite. I’m liking the look of this pitching matchup as both teams should be able to go tit for tat. But it’s Irvin’s inconsistency that worries me the most, so I’ll be on the White Sox.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-190)
Mike Su
With an 11 game lead in the AL Central division and a lock to make the playoffs, the White Sox don’t have much reason to go too hard in this game against the Athletics. Although playoff seeding is always a consideration, the Athletics have a lot more to play for. The Athletics sit just 2.5 games behind the Houston Astros, who lead the AL West Division. The A’s need this win, especially after squandering their last 3 games. Although both teams have won 6 of their past 10, before this weekend, Oakland was looking in much better form. The Athletics had won 7 games in a row until they lost 3 of their last 4 games. What doesn’t bode well for Oakland, despite the higher importance of this game for them, is the pitching situation. The White Sox are starting Lance Lynn who is 4th in the MLB for ERA with a 2.26 ERA and 10-3 record and Chicago has won each of his last 4 starts. Oakland pitcher Cole Irvin on the other hand has an above average 3.52 ERA, but a much poorer 8-11 record. Irvin is also a poor road pitcher, losing his last 4 road starts. I think this will be a tight game that is frankly a toss up due to the surrounding circumstances. Therefore, I’m going with the A’s at the line.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-118)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks – 9.40PM ET
The Arizona Diamondbacks kicked off this series with a win and have now won four of their last five games. Meanwhile, this was the Philadelphia Phillies’ second straight loss and fifth loss from their last seven games. Can the Diamondbacks win the series tonight or will the Phillies tie it up?
Tim Newton
This is a very intriguing matchup between two sides that are hard to get a hold of at the moment. Making this even more interesting is the pitching choices. Both starting pitchers don’t typically start for their ball clubs, but have been very impressive this season nonetheless. Humberto Castellanos, starting for Arizona, has a 2.30 ERA from just 15.2 innings pitched across eight games, with only one of those being a start. In that start, he kept the Rockies scoreless in four innings, however they did have four hits in that time. Meanwhile, Ranger Suarez’s numbers might be even more impressive. The Phillies’ starter has pitched 30 games, with only three of them being starts, and he has a 1.07 ERA from his 50.1 innings of work. His three starts have been in his last three games and he has given up just one run total across those games, where he pitched 10 innings. That makes this game tough to pick, so I am siding with the under, given the class of both unusual starters.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-114)
Out in a hurry! @VanMeter15 pic.twitter.com/xlFIjmiQDW
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) August 18, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
The Diamondbacks are a whopping 39 games behind the NL West leading Giants, but they still managed to get a win in the books against the Phillies. The Phillies really can’t afford to have losses to a team like the Diamondbacks, especially if they want to claim the top spot in the NL East, where they are two and a half games behind the Braves. The Diamondbacks have won eight of their previous 26 when it comes to the first game of a series and they have won 14 of their previous 57 when playing a team with a right handed starter. Whereas, the Phillies have won all five of their previous games on the road and have won 14 of their previous 19 after they suffered a loss. I think the Phillies will be bouncing back here.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-172)
Mike Su
The Phillies play the league’s second worst team, the Diamondbacks, in a game that means a lot for the Phillies playoff wise. The Diamondbacks have had some surprise wins against the 67-win Padres and a win against the Giants in their last lot of games. The Diamondbacks also beat the Phillies in the series opener, in a low scoring affair. I’m not sure what has gotten into the Diamondbacks down the stretch but they are playing decent baseball against teams who still have a lot to play for. The Phillies look to come back from an embarrassing loss against the Diamondbacks who haven’t even hit 40 wins yet. The Phillies are on the tail of the Atlanta Braves for the NL East division lead and need every single win. In order to do so they are turning to the underutilized Ranger Suarez who has only pitched 50 innings but at a mind blowing 1.02 ERA. Suarez has only allowed 3 home runs and 24 hits in those 50 innings, whilst also striking out 51 batters. I think the Phillies win this one in a low scoring game as Suarez keeps up his phenomenal play.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-172)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
