Our free MLB Picks are out for Thursday, September 16th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates – 12.35PM ET
With their season hanging in the balance and coming up against one of the worst teams in baseball, the Cincinnati Reds let the win slip out of their hands last night. They lost a second straight game to the Pittsburgh Pirates, and their fourth straight overall, and have an opportunity to atone for that this afternoon.
Tim Newton
I’m taking the Reds to bounce back in this one. They had last night’s game won before some defensive errors in the ninth innings, giving Pittsburgh the win. They will come out hungrier following that and have Tyler Mahle starting with the ball to get them off to a good start. Mahle has an 11-5 record along with a 3.73 ERA this season and that has improved to 3.38 over his last seven games.
Those are modest numbers and should be good enough to give Cincinnati the edge, especially considering the starter on the other side, Connor Overton, has never started and pitched just 7.2 innings in the majors in his career. While he is yet to give away a run, he has never had this sort of responsibility before and may find it tough against a team that needs to win to stay alive.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-154)
Katherine Mouradian
Well the second game was just as close as the first one between the Reds and the Pirates, but ultimately it was the same result, with the Pirates getting the victory. The Reds are now stumbling across the finish line, and have lost four games in a row, whereas the Pirates have won four of their previous five. Let’s turn our attention to some key stats for this game three clash. The Reds have won all five of their previous games played on a Thursday, but they have won just one of their previous five when it comes to the third game of a series.
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 16, 2021
Over to the Pirates now, they have won 17 of their previous 78 when it comes to the third game of a series, and they have won just one of their previous six games on a Thursday. The Pirates have been playing great baseball now that they are officially out of postseason contention, the Reds are still in with a chance, so they need to pull their socks up! With Mahle on the mound for the Reds, and his record on the road, I think this is the perfect opportunity for the Red to get a much needed win.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-154)
Mike Su
The Reds take on the Pirates in the 3rd game of this inter-division matchup. The Pirates have been bad all year but managed to pull off a tight win against the Reds in their last game. The Reds sit on 75 wins and are a part of the tight race for a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. The Reds have been playing poorly recently with just 2 wins in their last 9 games, including 2 losses in a row to the Pirates during their current 4 game losing streak.
The Reds need to turn things around in order to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Reds will be starting one of the best pitchers in their bullpen to make sure they turn the tide. The Reds are starting Tyler Mahle at pitcher who has been good this year with a 3.73 ERA and 188 strikeouts in 159 innings, leading to an 11-5 record. The Pirates will be starting Connor Overton who has pitched just 7 innings in his entire career and is unknown. I’m going to trust that the Reds can beat this rookie and the Pirates behind a strong performance from Mahle.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-154)
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox – 2.10PM ET
The Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox have split the opening two games of this series, with the rubber to be played this afternoon inside Guaranteed Rate Field. While the Angels haven’t been officially eliminated from playoff contention, they are 10.5 games back from a Wild Card slot while the White Sox are 11.5 games clear on top of the AL Central and now turn their attention to seeding positions.
Tim Newton
I’ll be with Chicago to close out this series with a win. They are tussling with the Astros for the #2 seed in the American League while LA has nothing to play for. The Angels are sending out Alex Cobb to start on the mound and he has a good 7-3 record and a 3.82 ERA. The worry is, when Cobb pitches on the road he is almost an entirely different pitcher, going 2-2 from eight starts with a massive 5.71 ERA.
Given that the White Sox are a top five batting lineup and are at home, they should be looking to take advantage of this. Them being able to pile on runs early will also help Reynaldo Lopez, who is suiting up for just his seventh start of the season. He has given up three runs in each of his last three starts and will benefit from the White Sox batting lineup helping him out with some offensive pressure on LA. I think they will be able to do this and get on top of the Angels in a high-scoring affair.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox / Over TBA (TBA)
Katherine Mouradian
The series is all leveled up at one game a piece, after the Angels stole the game in the eight innings, 3-2. The Angels are playing for pride, whereas the White Sox are still sitting pretty at the top of the AL Central by 11.5 games. Over to the key stats for this final game of the series. The Angels have won none of their previous five when it comes to the third game of a series, and they have also won one of their previous five when they play a team in the AL Central.
Looking at the White Sox now, they have won 65 of their previous 94 games at home and have won seven of their previous 11 when playing a team in the AL West. Despite a narrow, last minute victory to the Angels, I think it will be back to business as usual on Thursday afternoon for the White Sox, who do have the home advantage. With Lopez on the mound for the White Sox, coupled with the fact that the Angels haven’t scored more than five rounds in their previous four games, I’ll be on the White Sox to cover the spread.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (TBA)
Mike Su
After winning their last game in a tight one, the Angels look for another win against the White Sox. The White Sox have locked in their division and are only playing for seeding right now. The Angels on the other hand are out of the playoffs and have very little to play for. The X Factor is Shohei Ohtani who lost his season total home runs lead to Vladimir Guerrero Jr recently and will likely be trying to catch up as he is just 1 run behind Guerrero. In this game the Angles will be starting Alex Cobb who has a 7-3 record, 3.82 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
Cobb has been good this year but may have trouble against the White Sox’s 7th ranked batting unit. The White Sox on the other hand will be facing Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has been an enigma this season and in very limited playing time, he has been great. With a phenomenal 2.05 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, Lopez could have a field day against the Angels’ 17th ranked batting unit. Overall, I think the White Sox should win this one, but the safer bet may be the unders here.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Under (TBA)
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – 3.45PM ET
The San Diego Padres had a massive night and prevented the San Francisco Giants from reaching a 10th straight win. San Diego scored nine runs on a massive 16 hits against a top three bullpen and secured the three run win to keep their postseason chances alive. Can they continue that form this afternoon or will the Giants bounce back at home?
Tim Newton
While I was stunned at last night’s result, we know that San Diego’s hitting power, led by Fernando Tatis Jr., is up there with the best in the league. This result keeps San Diego close to the Cardinals, their opponent this weekend, for that last Wild Card slot in the National League but it may have lit a fire underneath the Giants that will carry them through the postseason.
This team prides itself on being the best in baseball and will be able to show that tonight with Kevin Gausman starting on the mound. A rock solid 2.65 ERA is accompanied by a 14-5 record from 29 appearances and Gausman hasn’t registered a loss since July. Given San Francisco are the third best home team in all of baseball while the Padres have a negative road record, I think this game should end in an easy win for the Giants.
Tim’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (TBA)
Katherine Mouradian
The Giants’ amazing nine game winning streak has come to an end! The Padres put in the performance of a lifetime to get the win against the NL leading Giants. The Padres certainly needed that win as they are still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. Can the Padres back it up again in the third and final game of this series, or will the Giants bounce back and show why they are the top team in the league. The Padres have won eight of their previous 28 games against a team in the NL West, and they have won just six of their previous 22 games on the road.
Full steam ahead Mr Rogers
(#SFGiants x @NationalPro) pic.twitter.com/QCQVhiiGtR
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 15, 2021
Looking at the Giants now, they have won five of their previous seven games when playing a team that has a winning record, and they have won 47 of their previous 71 games at home. I think a team like the Giants will not be kept down for long, and they’re a team that has a lot of support right throughout the bullpen. Look for the Giants to make a statement here in the final game of this series.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (TBA)
Mike Su
After a shock win by the Padres and a win by the Dodgers, the Giants are now only 2 games ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West. With such important stakes, the Giants need to win this to prevent the Dodgers getting within 1 and potentially taking the division lead back. The Giants had a shocker pitching in their last game against the Padres with 9 runs allowed. This wasn’t the work of 1 pitcher but was the work of 5 different pitchers in the GIants bullpen.
The Giants should rebound with Kevin Gausman stepping in to take over the pitching responsibilities. Gausman is a top 5 pitcher in the league with a 2.65 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 201 strikeouts in 170 innings. Gausman should dominate the Padres like he has in the past. In 3 games against the Padres this season, Gausman has 18 strikeouts and allowed just 3 runs in 19 innings of play. Gausman will be the key to the GIants winning this game by a big margin.
Mike’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (TBA)
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles – 5.05PM ET
While last night’s result was closer than expected, the New York Yankees took a second straight game off the Baltimore Orioles. That win keeps the Yankees in the three-way tie with Toronto and Boston for the two Wild Cards in the American League, meaning this series finale against the 46-99 Orioles should be taken very seriously.
Tim Newton
Following last night’s impressive performance, despite still losing, I’m siding with the Orioles here. I don’t have the confidence to back them straight up, but to be getting better than even money in the spread is a treat. Jordan Montgomery is starting for the Yankees and he is coming off a game where he gave up seven runs in 3.1 innings of work. While he is a much better pitcher than that, it showed that there are cracks in the armour and despite New York winning three straight so far this week, their form has been shaky of late and I like Baltimore to put up a sneaky performance in this one.
They are starting Chris Ellis, who has only seen five games this season and only four with Baltimore. He has started in all four appearances for the Orioles and allowed just five runs in 17.2 innings of work, including keeping a very good Toronto offense to just one run in five innings last time out. While this pick feels dirty, I feel like it is the right way to be spending money on this game.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (+120)
Katherine Mouradian
Well, that was a bit closer than the Yankees would have hoped in the game last time out, but at the end of the day a win is a win. The Orioles are now on a five game losing streak, and the Yankees have won four of their previous five games. Let’s look at some of the key stats for this game now. The Yankees have only won one of their previous five when it comes to the third game of the series, and they have won only three of their previous 10 games when they are the favorite.
When it comes to the Orioles, they have won three of their previous 12 during the third game of the series, and they have won 23 of their previous 76 games at home. The Yankees have finally found some consistency, and with Montgomery starting for them, things can only get better. Also considering the Yankees have won 23 of their previous 29 clashes in Baltimore, I will be on the Yankees to sweep in this series.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees (-250)
Mike Su
The Yankees play in another crucial inter-division game against the Orioles as they sit 8 games back from the Tampa Bay Rays. The issue is that the Red Sox and Blue Jays are also 8 games behind the Rays in the AL East, meaning we have a three horse race for the 2nd ranking in the AL East. With such tight competition, the Yankees will be looking to decisively beat the Orioles to prevent any chance of slipping in the AL East division. After winning a tight game yesterday against the Orioles, the Yankees will likely have a tough time again in this game as they face Chris Ellis.
Although he has only pitched in 21 innings in his career, Ellis has been phenomenal and has made the most of his opportunity. The 28 year old rookie has a 2.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in limited playing time. The Yankees will be starting Jordan Montgomery who has a good 3.71 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 138 innings this season. Montgomery also has a poor 5-6 record this season, which gives the Orioles some hope. Although I want the Orioles to win behind Ellis, the Yankees just have too much to play for against the worst team in the league.
Mike’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees (-250)
Houston Astros @ Texas Rangers – 8.05PM ET
This has been an extremely inconsistent series so far and it saw the Houston Astros claim a 7-2 win over the Texas Rangers last night. That result followed a 15-1 win for the Astros in the opener before a 8-1 win in favor of Texas in the second game of the series. The in-state rivalry now plays out for the final time this season with both sides wanting to finish on a high note.
Tim Newton
While it can’t really be explained how the results of the last three games have happened, it is obvious that the Astros are one of the most, if not the most, explosive team in the league but also one of the more inconsistent ones. You genuinely don’t know which version of Houston’s lineup you will get on any given night, but I am backing that it will be a good one for this clash. I’m big on Framber Valdez and he is starting on the mound tonight.
While his last seven starts have seen him registered just three wins and three losses, the last time he played the Rangers in Texas, he allowed just two runs in seven innings of work in a game that Houston won 5-2. I think that he will be able to restrict the runs against a terrible batting lineup and his offense should support him, much like the first and third games of this series.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-132)
Katherine Mouradian
After dropping the second game, the Astros were back in business for the third, winning 7-2. The series is now 2-1 in favor of the Astros with this game on Thursday night to be the final of the series. The Astros are sitting pretty atop of the AL West, whereas the Rangers are sitting second to last in the entire AL, the Orioles are the only team in the AL that has a worse record this season. Looking at some important data for this matchup now.
Jose Urquidy went six strong allowing just two hits.#CarryTheFreight x #ForTheH pic.twitter.com/AEpP6n9ur5
— Houston Astros (@astros) September 16, 2021
The Ranges have won seven of their previous 25 games when playing against a left handed pitcher, and they have won just two of their previous eight games at home when playing a team that has a winning record. Over to the Astros now, they have won 14 of their previous 19 games on a Thursday and they have won four of their previous five when playing a right handed pitcher. Everything about the Astros team is better compared to the Rangers, they have a better starting pitcher, starting lineup and bullpen. The Astros have also won eight of their previous 10 games against the Rangers. I’ll be on the Astros to cover the line.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-128)
Mike Su
The Houston Astros play the Rangers once again after beating them decisively in a 7-2 beatdown. This will be the final game between the Astros and Rangers this season and a game the Astros will likely win against their inter-division rival. The Rangers will be starting Glenn Otto, as they try to see what they have going into next season. In 13 innings of play, Otto has been bad with a 6.92 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Otto will be facing the 2nd best batting unit in the league and is getting a trial by fire. Otto will likely struggle. The Astros will be starting Framber Valdez who has been great this season with a 3.26 ERA and 109 strikeouts in 116 innings. Valdez should be solid enough to stop the 29th ranked batting unit in the MLB. The Astros should have an easy win in this fame as they try to gather some steam going into the playoffs.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-126)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
