Our free MLB Picks are out for Sunday, September 5th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees – 1.05PM ET
This Sunday afternoon game between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees will be the third and final game of the series. The first two games have been as close as they come, the Yankees got the job done in the first game, in 11 innings, 4-3. It was then the Orioles that were good enough to strike back in the second game, winning 4-3.
I’m genuinely shocked at what transpired yesterday, with New York losing to the Orioles and setting them back closer to the pack chasing Wild Card slots. They now sit just half a game above the Red Sox and only four games ahead of both the A’s and Mariners. That means that they need wins now and I reckon they should be able to bounce back in this one. Baltimore are starting Keegan Akin this afternoon and he is just 2-8 in his 20 games, with 13 of those being starts.
That is paired with a shocking 6.90 ERA and he has given up 3+ runs in three of his last five starts. That should allow the Yankees to get a roll on early and stay ahead in this one. While they are starting Corey Kluber, who has mediocre numbers so far this season, their batting lineup will have a much easier time getting a hold of Akin than Baltimore’s will with Kluber. I’m expecting that there will be some free flowing scoring in this one and the Yankees should prove to be too good.
Tim’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees / Over 9.5 (+130)
The Orioles got a win! It wasn’t the most convincing of wins, but a win nonetheless. The Orioles have now won four of their previous 10 games. The Yankees really can’t afford many more losses like these, as it will certainly shake their confidence come postseason. Now, some key stats for this clash! The Orioles have won just five of their previous 21 games played on a Sunday, and won only 26 of their previous 102 games in total.
They made him a pitch he couldn’t refuse… pic.twitter.com/KK45goM960
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 4, 2021
On the flip side, the Yankees have won eight of their previous nine when it comes to the third game of a series, and when they are the favorite, they have won 21 of their previous 27 games. So, in the first two games, was it the Orioles that were playing well, or the Yankees that were playing poorly? I think it’s a little bit of both. The Yankees have Kluber, and I’m not too convinced based on his past performance, and while Akin isn’t that much better, I think the Orioles are good enough to cover the spread.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (+138)
The Orioles once again take on the Yankees in the third game of this in season series and look to make it 2 wins in a row. The Yankees go back to the drawing board to work out how they just lost to the worst team in the league, and losing some of the red-hot form they were in. The Yankees have lost 5 of their last 10 after entering a scorching pace to get within striking distance of the Rays but have slid since then.
The Yankees should win this as I wouldn’t expect them to lose 2 in a row to the Orioles, especially with Keegan Akin starting. Akin played very well in his last game against the good batting unit in Toronto, with 5 strikeouts and allowing just 1 run in 5 innings. However, Akin has been bad overall this season, with a woeful 6.90 ERA and a 2-8 record. I expect Akin to revert to the mean. This is not promising against a Yankees batting unit that is one of the best in the league. The Yankees should bounce back and win this with ease.
Mike’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees -1.5 (-154)
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays – 1.10PM ET
This Sunday afternoon clash between the Minnesota Twins and the Tampa Bay Rays will be the third and final game in this series. The Rays have won both games in this series so far, winning the first game 5-3, and the second game, 11-4.
I like the Rays to complete the sweep this afternoon. They have been the far better team through the first two games of this series and their offense should have another opportunity to pile on the runs in this clash. Minnesota is starting Griffin Jax, who has a 6.71 ERA and has given up a massive 22 runs over his last four games, from just 21.1 innings of work.
Given Tampa has a top 10 OPS and have also scored the most runs this season, that gives them a massive advantage in this one and it could get as ugly as last night’s clash. Tampa is now tied with the two NL West teams for the best record in baseball and I can imagine that means a lot to them heading down the stretch, meaning they will go hard for this win.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-111)
The Twins are now on a four game losing streak and are dead last in the AL Central, 20.5 games behind the White Sox. The Rays have a nice buffer between them and the second placed Yankees, of seven and a half games, in the AL East. When looking at some of the key stats leading into this match, the Twins have won only three of their previous 10 when they are the underdog, and they have won just two of their previous eight games on the road.
On the other hand, the Rays have won 47 of their previous 66 games played on a Sunday and they have won 38 of their previous 52 games overall. It was a bit of a bloodbath for the Twins in the previous matchup, and I am expecting more of the same for this Sunday clash, especially when you consider there is more at stake for the Rays. Back the Rays to cover the spread.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-111)
The Rays are the best team in the league and have championship aspirations, while the Twins sit at the bottom of the AL Central division and have no playoff hopes. The Rays should cruise by in this game, however it may be a close one as the Rays are on cruise control heading into the end of the season. This is evident with the starting pitcher Luis Patino who has a below average 4.24 ERA. Patino should be enough to do the job as the Twins have struggled on the road and are out of form.
The Twins are 1-4 in their last 5 games and are 2-6 in their last 8 road games, this does not bode well for a game against the defending champions. The Twins are starting Griffin Jax who has been bad this season with a 6.71 ERA and has just 44 strikeouts in 53 innings. Jax is going up against one of the best batting units in the league and I think he is going to struggle. There is no reason the Rays don’t win this as they will secure the best record in the league with this win which might be crucial come playoff time. Rays by a wide margin here.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-111)
St Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers – 2.10PM ET
This Sunday afternoon clash between the St Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers will be the third and final game in this series. The series is currently leveled at one game a piece after the Cardinals took the first game, 15-4, and the Brewers instantly hit back, winning 4-0.
The Brewers bounced back last night after their disappointing showing in the series opener and I am backing them to continue on with that good form in this one. While I expected Milwaukee to win this series coming into the clash, the fact they have Corbin Burnes starting on the mound for the rubber makes that a much more certain outcome. Burnes is 9-4 with an incredible 2.27 ERA from his 23 starts this season and just pitched six innings to the league-leading Giants where he allowed just one run.
The Cardinals are nowhere near the same level as the Giants and Burnes should be able to keep their scoring low. Meanwhile St Louis are starting Jon Lester who has a 5.05 ERA and last time he played the Brewers he gave up four runs on six hits in just 4.1 innings of work. Milwaukee are the much better team here and have the superior starting pitcher, meaning this should be a comfortable win.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-134)
The Brewers might be at the top of the NL Central, but they have had a fairly inconsistent past couple of games, winning five of their previous 10 clashes. The Cardinals are 12.5 games behind the Brewers, and have won six of their previous 10 games. Now let’s dig into the stats, the Cardinals have won five of their previous seven games on a Sunday, and they have won five of their previous six when it comes to the third game of a series.
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 5, 2021
Looking at the Brewers now, they have won 20 of their previous 27 when it comes to the third game of a series, and four of their previous five games on a Sunday. This game has to be the Brewers for me, they are the better team, and have got their confidence back after keeping the Cardinals scoreless last time out.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-240)
The Brewers have been relatively good recently with big wins against the Giants to prove themselves. They take on the Cardinals again for game 3 of this in season series. The Brewers won the last game easily and redeemed themselves from a 15-4 blowout in game 1. The Brewers aren’t messing around in this game, starting Corbin Burnes to dispose of the Cardinals. Burnes has been insanely good against the Cardinals this season with 21 strikeouts with just 1 allowed run in 17 innings.
Burnes is coming off his masterclass against the Giants where he has 9 strikeouts and allowed just 1 run against arguably one of the best batting units in the league. Burnes should cruise by the Cardinals holding them to a low scoring outing. The Cardinals are starting Jon Lester to pitch opposite of Burnes. Lester is not good with just 68 strikeouts in 107 innings and a 5.05 ERA. The Brewers will have a field day here. Don’t expect a close one.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-134)
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres – 4.10PM ET
This Sunday afternoon clash between the Houston Astros and the San Diego Padres will be the third and final game of the series. So far this series is level, with the Astros winning the first game, 6-3, and the Padres striking back in the second to win 10-2.
Despite Framber Valdez starting last night, Houston was blown out of the water by the Padres, led by Fernando Tatis Jr who scored two of their 10 runs. This shows that San Diego’s offensive lineup is on fire at the moment, but Houston’s is just as explosive and I think that will help the total go over.
Both teams hit runs for fun and with both starting pitchers having above average ERAs, both sides could pile them on. Both Luis Garcia and Chris Paddack had multiple games in August giving up 3+ runs, including Garcia giving up five on one occasion and Paddack giving up nine in one game, despite pitching just two innings… Those are some massive numbers and given how good both batting lineups can be, this should be a high scoring affair.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Over 9 (-102)
The Astros are still at the top of the AL West, with a percentage of .585, and the Padres are in third place in the NL West, 14 games behind the Dodgers and the Giants, with a percentage of .529. Let’s have a look at some of the important stats for this specific match.
The Astros have won only one of their previous six when it comes to the third game of a series, and haven’t won any of their previous five games played on a Sunday. Looking at the Padres now, they have won 20 of their previous 28 games on a Sunday, and have won five of their previous seven meetings against the Astros. Despite what the recent stats say, the Astros are the better team and there is actually a lot of value in them for this clash.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros (-110)
The Astros look to bounce back from a 10-2 beatdown by the Padres. This seems like it is becoming an unfortunate trend for the Astros as they have been subject to several blowout losses including losses by 4 or more runs against the Mariners, Padres, Rangers and Royals all within the last 10 games. The Astros are still looking for their 80th win and despite their worrying form lately, they should win this one against a Padres team clawing back to playoff contention.
The Astros league best batting unit should have an easy team against the Padres pitcher Chris Paddack who has a below average, bordering on a bad ERA of 4.9. We already know that the Astros are a top 5 team statistically on both sides on the ball, so I expect a reversion to the mean for the Astros and for them to crush the Padres
Mike’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (+142)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants – 7.08PM ET
This Sunday evening clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Francisco Giants will be the final game in a three game series. The series is all tied up, after the Giants claimed victory in the first game, 3-2, and the Dodgers managed to strike back instantly, winning the second game 6-1.
I’ve picked right through the first two games of this series and after flipping from the Giants to the Dodgers between games one and two, I am sticking with LA tonight. The Giants are a much more defensive-minded team but when their defense doesn’t work, like last night, you can see how ugly it gets. LA on the other hand have the best of both worlds, being able to restrict teams with a bevvy of top-line starters whilst also having one of the most explosive batting lineups in the majors.
The Giants, yet again, still haven’t named their starter but LA have named theirs and that is why I am all over them in the rubber. Walker Buehler may very well be the best pitcher in baseball this season, posting a 13-2 record and a 2.05 ERA, which are both bonkers. While he allowed a run in each of his six games during August, he never allowed more than two runs in a game and allowed just one run across 14 innings of work in his last two games against San Francisco. I could keep going on about how good Buehler is, making it pretty obvious why I am siding with LA for this one.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Of course this series was destined to go to a decider, with both teams having got one victory each so far in this clash. It is probably one of the most talked about things in baseball at the moment, who is going to claim the top spot in the NL West? Nothing is separating these teams and it will be interesting to see how the whole thing shakes out.
Upon further review, it’s a walkoff rivalry win.
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 4, 2021
The Dodgers have won 45 of their previous 65 when it comes to the third game of a series and they have won 45 of their previous 62 games on a Sunday. The Giants stats are just as good, they have won 22 of their previous 32 games overall and have won 16 of their previous 22 when it comes to the third game of a series. I have picked the under in the first two games of this series, and it has served me well, I’ll be on the under for the tricfecta in this series!
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110)
The Dodgers took game 2 of this in season series to tie the division in a 6-1 beatdown of the Giants. Both teams are in a three way tie for the best record in the MLB and are exchanging blows in this heavyweight matchup. The Dodgers have certainly looked better in this series with a close 11th inning loss to the Giants in game 1 of this in-season series where they faced the strong pitching of Anthony Desclafani, and then a blowout win in game 2.
This game will be the last one for the regular season and will likely decide the NL West as the regular season series is currently tied with 9 wins each. Both teams have been phenomenal this season and it seems like a toss up. However, I’m leaning toward the Dodgers as they have the better season team averages and they are starting the best pitcher in the league. Walker Buehler has been phenomenal this season with a 2.05 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, which has led to a 13-2 record with him pitching. Buehler should lead the Dodgers to a win in this crucial game.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.