Our free MLB Picks are out for Saturday, September 11th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
San Francisco Giants @ Chicago Cubs – 2.20PM ET
This Saturday afternoon clash between the San Francisco Giants and the Chicago Cubs will be the second of a three game series. The first game was played on Friday, and the Giants got the better of the Cubs, winning 6-1.
A pretty straightforward pick to get started. The Giants should easily win this game and continue to keep the Dodgers at bay on top of the NL West. Just looking at both teams’ records you would expect San Francisco to come out and win this easily, and when looking at the starting pitchers that is even more certain. Chicago is dishing up Zach Davies and the Giants look ready to feast. Through 29 starts Davis is just 6-10 with a shocking 5.16 ERA and that ERA balloons to 7.84 when looking at his last seven games.
On the other hand, San Francisco has Kevin Gausman starting with the ball and he is one of the best starting pitchers in the league. A 13-5 record is accompanied by a 2.58 ERA and while he has been a bit expensive lately, he still hasn’t recorded a loss since the end of July and I don’t see that changing in this one.
Tim’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (TBA)
The Cubs are actually having a pretty decent September so far, winning seven of their previous nine games so far this month. The Giants are again playing well in September, like they have the whole season, and are currently on a five game winning streak. Now, let’s have a look at some stats for this game.
First to 50
First to 60
First to 70
First to 80
First to 90
— San Francisco Giants (@SFGiantsFans) September 8, 2021
The Giants have won 38 of their previous 52 games when playing a team that has a losing record, and they have won eight of their previous 10 when it comes to the second game of a series. Over to the Cubs now, they have won four of their previous five when it comes to the second game of a series, and 39 of their previous 73 games at home. The Giants are a better team and I expect another comfortable win like in the first game.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (TBA)
The Cubs were blown out in game one by the heavyweight Giants. In the second game between the Giants and Cubs I expect the Giants to dominate. The Cubs haven’t been a very good team this year and have no hope of making the playoffs. The Giants on the other hand look to maintain their lead over the Dodgers in the NL West division.
This matchup will see the Giants start Kevin Gausman, who has been one of the league’s best pitchers this year with a 2.58 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and also has 192 strikeouts in164 innings. All of these figures are in the top 10 in the league. For the Cubs, they will be turning to Zach Davies who has been undoubtedly bad. Davies has a 5.16 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, equating to a 6-10 record. This simply won’t be good enough against the league’s best team and a top 10 batting unit. I have to back the Giants to take this one with ease.
Mike’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (-200)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers – 6.10PM ET
This Saturday evening clash between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Detroit Tigers will be the second of a three game series. The first game, surprisingly, went to the Tigers, and they won 10-4. Can the Rays bounce back from this unexpected loss?
I’m taking the Rays to win this purely on their season to date. Neither starting pitcher has inspired me, with the Tigers potentially having more of an edge, but Tampa’s batting lineup should get them over the line. The Rays are top 10 for both OPS and hits while ranking on top of the majors for runs this season and have still scored the most runs when looking at just the last 15 days.
Meanwhile, the Tigers rank 18th for the season and 19th over the last 15 days when looking at runs scored. Detroit are also around 0.500 at home and below 0.500 against teams with a positive record while Tampa is a great side regardless of where they play.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-154)
The Rays are a comfortable nine games ahead of the Red Sox in the AL East, so this loss to the Tigers, who are 14.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central was very interesting. The Rays have now lost two games in a row, and really want to get back that winning feeling leading into the postseason. The Tigers have had a bit of a mixed back so far in September, but currently have a two game winning streak. It’s stat time!
The Rays have won all seven of their previous clashes when it comes to the second game of the series, and they have won 36 of their previous 52 games played on a Saturday. Looking over to the Tigers now, they have won just 2 of their previous seven games played on a Saturday and they have won just 1 of their previous seven when it comes to the second game of a series. I’m fully expecting the Rays to bounce back here after the loss last night. The Rays should be able to keep the high quality up for longer in the game compared to the Tigers.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-154)
Last year’s champions the Tampa Bay Rays take on the Tigers. The Tigers haven’t been great this season, and have lost out all hope to make the playoffs. With very little to play for at this point in the season, the Tigers don’t have much to play for. The Rays will be taking a chance on Luis Patino to play who has only played 60 innings this year. Patino has a solid but not great 4.65 ERA and 1.35 WHIP.
The Tigers will be starting Casey Mize. Mize has been decent this year with a 3.51 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, which is considerably better than Patino. Although Patino has shown some promise, a poor performance by him in this potential trap game could lead to a surprise Rays loss. However, I trust the Rays number ranked batting unit who averages the most runs per game in the MLB. The Rays batting unit have put points on the board regardless and that shouldn’t change in this matchup.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (-154)
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cleveland Indians – 6.10PM ET
This Saturday evening clash between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cleveland Indians will be the second of a three game series. The Brewers drew first blood yesterday, winning against the Indians, 10-3.
The Milwaukee Brewers have one of the best bullpens in baseball and Corbin Burnes is one of the main contributing factors to that. He is 9-4 through 24 games with a 2.38 ERA and looking at his last 12 games, he has allowed more than one run on just three occasions. He now faces a Cleveland offense that is in the bottom half of the league for runs, hits and OPS this season whilst having a four game series against Minnesota where they only managed six runs total.
On the other side of the ball, Cleveland has Zach Plesac starting and this is another place for Milwaukee to get an edge. The Brewers have come on nicely as a batting unit lately and will now get the pleasure of teeing off against Plesac who has a 4.53 ERA this season and a 5.08 ERA over his last seven starts. That is a massive disparity and one that should allow the Brewers to get the job done.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-110)
The Brewers are showing just why they are at the top of the AL Central, and have put up some pretty dominant performances so far in September, they are also currently on a three game winning streak. The Indians have been inconsistent at best so far in September, and have lost four of their previous five games overall. Let’s have a look at some of the key stats for this game!
— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) September 11, 2021
The Brewers like it when Burnes starts for them, they have won all five of their previous clashes on the road when he starts and have won all five of their previous clashes when he starts after having five rest days. Meanwhile, Plesac is starting for the Indians, and they have won one of their previous seven Saturday games when he starts, and they have won only one of their previous six clashes against a right handed starter. This one should be another easy one, Brewers for me!
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-110)
The Brewers have been playing impressive baseball lately with multiple wins against contenders in their last 10 games. This includes 3 wins in a row against the Giants and a dominating 10-3 win in the last game against the Indians Despite their big lead in the NL Central, and the Indians sitting on just 69 wins, the Brewers are not taking any chances. The Brewers will be starting Corbin Burnes, who has a 2.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 196 strikeouts in 144 innings.
These figures all ranked in the top 6 in the league. On the other side, the Indians will be starting Zach Plesac. Plesac has a 4.53 ERA and 1.117 WHIP, with a solid 10-4 record. Plesac has been solid this year but isn’t enough to beat an ascending Brewers Team that has their eyes on the championship. I have to go with the Brewers to win big in this game as the pitching situation and overall team stats all point in that direction.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (-110)
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox – 7.10PM ET
This Saturday evening clash between the Boston Red Sox and the Chicago White Sox will be the second of a three game series. The first game was a tight one all the way through to the finish, but the White Sox ultimately came out on top, 4-3.
Tough game to pick here. I am doing this before Friday’s game and Boston is still yet to name their starter. Looking back at the first series between these two sides earlier in the year, they split the four games 2-2. That gives me more confidence betting on Chicago, given they managed to split on the road and are now at home for this series.
They are starting Dylan Cease for this matchup and he boasts an 11-7 record with a 3.87 record but this has improved to 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA over his last seven games. Breaking it down further, at home Cease is almost a different pitcher, considering he has a 6-2 record with an ERA of 2.53 at Guaranteed Rate Field. Those numbers should allow him to keep the talented Boston batting lineup to a lower total than usual and give Chicago a chance to claim a victory in this one.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (TBA)
The White Sox have worked hard to get themselves into the position they are in, 10.5 games clear of the second placed Indians in the AL Central. Whereas, the Red Sox really need to keep winning if they want to keep the top Wild Card spot. Now into the stats. The Red Sox have won just six of their previous 20 games on the road, and they have won just four of their previous 15 games on the road and when playing a team that has a winning record this season.
Over to the White Sox now, they have won 62 of their previous 90 games at home, and have won eight of their previous 11 games at home and when playing a team with a winning season record. Cease has been performing pretty well for the White Sox as of late, and I’m liking the look of them to carry forward the momentum from the first game as well as the fact they are playing at home.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (TBA)
The Red Sox have a tiny lead in the AL East against the Yankees and Blue Jays and look to build a more comfortable cushion. The Red Sox and White Sox have both been extremely average lately and neither particularly sticks out from the other record wise. However, when looking deeper, the Red Sox have been playing against tougher competition with 7 of their last 11 games against the American League best Rays. The White Sox on the other hand have played average against low level competitions with games against the Royals, Pirates and Cubs.
This will be an interesting matchup as the Red Sox’s 4th ranked batting unit takes on the White Sox’s 5th best defensive unit. The White Sox will be looking to hold the Red Sox to a low total with Dylan Cease starting. Cease has a good 3.87 ERA and 197 strikeouts in 148 innings. However, the White Sox have a big lead in their division, which might mean they may be complacent for the rest of the season. For that reason, and the fact that the Red Sox have done better against good competition, I am going with the Red Sox in a tight game.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (TBA)
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 9.10PM ET
This Saturday evening clash between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers will be the second of a three game series. In the first game, it was the Dodgers who where victorious, winning 3-0.
I’m all over the Dodgers to round out the night. Wins are important to both ball clubs at this stage of the season and given their respective battles for the NL West crown and the final Wild Card slot in the National League, but LA should have the Padres covered here. San Diego is starting Chris Paddack who is only 7-6 with a 4.95 ERA this season while LA has Walker Buehler starting and his numbers are much more impressive. His 28 starts have returned a 13-3 record along with a very handy 2.31 ERA.
Looking at Buehler’s numbers at home, he is 8-2 with a ridiculous 2.16 ERA and that should be more than enough to keep the Padres quiet. San Diego may have Fernando Tatis Jr. but are still just a middle of the road batting lineup and Buehler should give them a headache tonight. Given LA are top five for both batting and pitching this season, it is hard to see the Padres overcome them in Dodger Stadium.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-215)
The Dodgers are desperate to keep in touch with the Giants in the NL West, they are only a few games behind, and would much prefer to not have to play in the Wild Card games. The Padres are 16 games behind the Giants, and are out of it for top spot, but could still get a Wild Card spot. This means there is certainly a lot on the table for both of these teams. Let’s dig into some of the key stats for this second game in the series.
Taking care of business. pic.twitter.com/NPaMcCj2zW
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 11, 2021
The Padres have won three of their previous 10 games on the road and when playing a right handed starter, they have won only two of their previous nine games against a team in the NL West. Over to the Dodgers now, they have won 23 of their previous 31 games overall, and they have won 17 of their previous 22 games against a team that has a winning record. Not only has Buehler been great this season, but he has been great specifically against the Dodgers, look for the Dodgers to get a convincing win here on Saturday night.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-102)
The Dodgers are still on the heels of the Giants and need to pull out a win here to maintain their chance to win the NL West. The importance of a win for the Dodgers here is highlighted by them starting Walker Beuhler. Buehler is the Dodgers best pitcher and arguably the league’s best. Buehler has a phenomenal 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP which is ranked 2nd in the league. To make matters worse for the Padres, when Buehler pitches, the Dodgers have gone 13-3.
Buehler will be looking to bounce back from his last game where he allowed 6 runs in 7 innings in a loss against the Giants. The Padres on the other hand are going with Chris Paddack who has been below average this season with a 4.95 ERA. The combination of the Dodgers’ fight for the number 1 position in the NL West division combined with an angry Buehler looking to bounce back, I think the Dodgers destroy the Padres in a very different game 2.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-102)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.