Our free MLB Picks are out for Monday, September 6th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees – 1.05PM ET
After dropping back to back games to the Orioles over the weekend, the New York Yankees get right back to it to start the week, hosting the Toronto Blue Jays. While New York slipped on the weekend, Toronto kept their slim postseason chances alive with a 3-0 sweep of the A’s. Now these AL East rivals face off with Wild Card slots on the line, so who wants it more?
Tim Newton
The Yankees have hit a bit of a speed bump of late, going just 4-6 over their last 10 games and seeing their commanding hold on a Wild Card slot in the American League dissipate. They are now tasked with hosting the Blue Jays, who are coming in hot following their 3-0 sweep of the A’s. The issue is, Toronto is a completely different team on the road this season, going just 34-33 when travelling. While the Yankees just dropped two games at home to the Orioles, showing they are extremely vulnerable, you can’t look past Toronto’s road record.
Their saving grace might be the fact that they are starting Hyun Jin Ryu, who actually improves when pitching on the road with a 6-4 record and 3.34 ERA from 13 road games. Jameson Taillon, New York’s starter, is much better at home than on the road, which is a positive for the Yankees, but he has given up 11 runs over his last two games, which saw him pitch just 3.2 and 4.2 innings respectively. That means that Toronto, who have the best OPS and sixth most runs this season, should be able to put some runs on the board and make this one interesting. New York is actually 30-34 against the spread at home this season while the Blue Jays are 34-31 ATS on the road. While it is only a slight advantage, it proves that this is a very capable result and the Blue Jays with the runs should get the job done.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-172)
🤯 @RobbieRay is also the FIRST pitcher in team HISTORY to wear the home run jacket! pic.twitter.com/qwBXNWbt5v
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 5, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
The first of a four game series between the Blue Jays and the Yankees, both in the AL East, should be very interesting to watch! The Blue Jays are coming off a 3-0 series victory against the Athletics, and have now won four games in a row. Whereas, the Yankees are coming off a series loss to the Orioles! Eventually going down 1-2, and the game the Yankees did win was taken to the 11th innings, love the drama! The Blue Jay have won just one of their previous seven games when they are the underdogs, and they have won just two of their previous nine games played on a Monday.
Looking at the Yankees now, they have won 37 of their previous 53 overall and have won six of their previous seven when it comes to the first game of a series. While the Yankees seemed to stumble in their previous series with the Orioles, I’m still going to back them for the win here. The Yankees have won 18 of their previous 26 matches against the Blue Jays in New York and have won all four of their previous matches against the Blue Jays overall.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: New York Yankees (-148)
Mike Su
The Yankees have regressed in their last few games and look to turn it around again while facing a tough opponent in the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays still have a sliver of hope to make the playoffs with a 16.8% chance and have been playing lights out to try make that happen. Toronto have won seven of their last eight games and are in good form, while the Yankees have won just two of their last eight. The Blue Jays also have the edge against the Yankees pitching wise with Hyun Jin Ryu starting, who has been decent this season with a 3.92 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 12-8 record.
The Yankees are slightly worse with Jameson Tailon who has a 4.44 ERA, but has 10 more strikeouts than Ryu despite playing 18 less innings. The close gap in the pitching situation is greatly contrasted by the batting where the Blue Jays are 3rd in the league while the Yankees are 20th. The Blue Jays should win this game and continue their hot play.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (+116)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox – 1.10PM ET
After opening last week playing against each other, the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox will go at it again to start this week. Boston managed to steal two of the four games from that series in Tampa and will relish getting back to Fenway Park for this AL East showdown.
Tim Newton
I’m taking the Red Sox to win their third straight against the Rays this afternoon. Chris Sale started for Boston in the first of those two wins, pitching six innings and allowing just two runs in a game that Boston won 3-2. Sale wasn’t given the win for that result but that was just his fourth game of the season and he registered the win in the other three. He has a rock solid 2.53 ERA this season and should give Tampa the best opportunity to succeed tonight.
Tampa is starting Ryan Yarbrough and he actually registered a win against Boston last week, pitching six innings for two runs, as well, with the Rays winning 8-5. While that was an impressive showing from Yarbrough, he has faced Boston on three other occasions during the season and given up a massive 19 runs from just 12 innings of work. I think that is the formline to follow, more so than the one off last week, and Boston should be able to swing freely for the win.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (-145)
Katherine Mouradian
Another first game clash between two teams in the AL East, this time between the Rays and the Red Sox. The Rays are currently leading the AL East, with the Red Sox sitting in third place at the moment, eight games behind the Rays. Looking at some of the key stats for the Rays leading up to this clash, they have won 17 of their previous 22 games on the road, and they have won all four of their previous clashes when it comes to the first game of the series.
Switching over to the Red Sox now, they have won 24 of their previous 33 games at home, and have won seven of their previous eight games played on a Monday. For me though, the under looks like the way to go, especially considering it’s recent strike rate. The under has hit in all four of the Rays previous first game in the series clases, and it has hit in five of the Red Sox previous eight games on a Monday.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Under 9 (-120)
Mike Su
The Red Sox once again take on the Rays for their fifth meeting in nine games. This should be an interesting one as the Red Sox are battling the Yankees for the second spot in the standings in the AL East. Boston sits just half a game behind New York and have been decent in their last 10 games with six wins. The Red Sox have also beaten the Rays in their past two meetings and could continue this streak. The Red Sox are sending in the big guns with Chris Sale who has a 3-0 record, 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. However, Sale has only pitched 21 innings and whether he can keep this pace remains to be seen.
The Rays are starting Ryan Yarbrough who has played significantly more than Sale but has been borderline bad with a 4.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 134 innings. The Rays are well outside the reach of the Yankees and Red Sox so Boston may catch them sleeping in this one. With all other factors considered, I personally think the Red Sox pull out a tight victory in this game.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (-145)
Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers – 2.10PM ET
The NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers host the Philadelphia Phillies, who are second in the NL East and just two games behind the Braves, for a three game series to start the week. While the Brewers have all but locked up their division, the Phillies have everything to play for as the season winds down, but can they get the job done at American Family Field?
Tim Newton
The Phillies have just dropped a three game series in Miami, to a 57-80 team, and now continue their road trip in Milwaukee, against an 84-54 team. Things don’t look good for Philadelphia in this clash, especially when you consider the Brewers are starting Brandon Woodruff. While his 9-7 record isn’t writing headlines, his 2.35 ERA ranks second amongst qualified pitchers and is definitely more representative of how good he has been this season. In his 12 games pitching at home, Woodruff gets even better, posting a 4-1 record with a super impressive 2.08 ERA.
His last game saw him restrict the Giants, who have the best record in baseball, to just one run from six innings of work and he should be able to do an even better job against Philadelphia in this one. Especially when the Phillies are starting Zack Wheeler, who has given up 21 runs across his last four games, including a seven run, 10 hit performance against the Rays two weeks ago. Milwaukee is in form and the better team, meaning they should get the job done.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-146)
BREWERS WALK-OFF GRAND SLAM @BRWalkoff
(via @MLBONFOX)pic.twitter.com/E7IBaQOnth
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 5, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
The first of a three game series between the Phillies and the Brewers kicks off on Monday afternoon. The Phillies are coming off a 1-2 series loss to the Marlins, while the Brewers are coming off a 2-1 series win against the Cardinals. The Phillies have won all four of their previous games on a Monday, but have won just two of their previous eight when it comes to the first game of a series. Looking to the Brewers now, they have won an impressive 43 of their previous 64 games in total and have won five of their previous seven games at home.
With the Brewers playing at home and with Woodruff, they are the certain favorites, but I’m liking the value of the Phillies here. They have Wheeler starting, who has been decent all season and plus he produced a great performance against the Brewers just a couple of months ago, where he had a complete game shutout. If that isn’t enough to convince you then take a look at these stats, the Phillies have won four out of their previous five clashes in Milwaukee and have won all four of their previous clashes with the Brewers in total. There could be an update brewing!
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (+128)
Mike Su
After beating the Cardinals twice in a row, the Brewers now take on the Phillies who are in the midst of a three-way race for the NL East division title. Although the Phillies have been good with seven wins in their last 10, those games have been against below average teams in the Marlins, Nationals and Diamondbacks. The Brewers on the other hand have also been hot with a 6-4 record which doesn’t look great but it has been against some of the very best in the league with three wins against the Giants.
Milwaukee have shown that they are in the upper tier in the MLB and could be in the running for the #1 seed in the National League if they continue their good form. Pitching wise in this matchup, the Brewers have the edge with a top three pitcher in the league starting for them. Brandon Woodruff has been phenomenal with a 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 157 innings. In his last game against the formidable Giants, Woodruff had 8 strikeouts and allowed just 1 run in 6 innings. I expect more of the same from Woodruff against the Phillies’ 13th ranked batting unit.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+150)
Los Angeles Dodgers @ St Louis Cardinals – 4.15PM ET
After a grueling series in San Francisco that saw them fall short, losing 1-2, the Los Angeles Dodgers stay on the road to face the St Louis Cardinals in the first of a four game series tonight. The Cardinals are just three games back from the last Wild Card slot in the National League while LA’s result over the weekend means they will be even hungrier to catch the Giants and will come out with a point to prove.
Tim Newton
The intro explains it perfectly, the Dodgers are going to come out with a point to prove after the weekend’s results. LA could have entered this week with the best record in baseball but fell just short in San Francisco. Heading into this clash with the Cardinals, who were unlucky not to win their series in Milwaukee, LA have turned to Max Scherzer to start the game. Scherzer has had six games with the Dodgers since being traded and has a 4-0 record whilst giving up just five runs across 35 innings of work.
His last two games, which were against teams that currently own a postseason spot, saw him pitch 13.2 innings and allow just five hits and no runs. That is so impressive and the Cardinals won’t know what hit them in this clash. Especially when St Louis is starting Miles Mikolas, who has given up nine runs across his last three games and one of those resulted in the Cardinals losing to the lowly Pirates.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-126)
Katherine Mouradian
The Dodgers and the Cardinals will start a four game series on Monday afternoon. In the Dodgers previous series they faced off against the Giants, eventually going down in that series 1-2. The Cardinals are also coming off a series loss to the Brewers, 1-2. Let’s dig into some of the key stats now. The Dodgers have won 42 of their previous 61 clashes overall and have won six of their previous eight when it comes to the first game of the series.
On the flip side, the Cardinals have won 35 of their previous 51 games played on a Monday, and have won only one of their previous five games when they are playing at home and are the underdogs. I’m going to pick the under for this game, the under has hit in four of their Dodgers previous five games when they are on the road and start as the favorite, and it has hit 10 out of the Cardinals previous 12 when it comes to the first game of the series.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Under 8 (-104)
Mike Su
The deflated Dodgers should take out their anger, from their 1-2 loss in San Francisco over the weekend, on a Cardinals team that is just 5-5 in their last 10 games and have struggled against quality opponents with just one win in their last five games as the underdog. The Dodgers on the other hand have played well against the toughest of opponents, going 4-2 against the league best Giants and NL East-leading Atlanta Braves last week.
The Dodgers should roll over the Cardinals, as they have in the past. Not only do the Dodgers have a good record against the Cardinals this season, they also play great on the road with seven wins in their last nine road games. LA has a strong edge when it comes to pitching with Max Scherzer, who is a top three pitcher with a 2.40 ERA and 0.86 ERA. The Cardinals are starting Miles Mikolas who has just 16 innings under his belt this season and with a below average 4.41 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The Dodgers should win this with ease.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-126)
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros – 7.10PM ET
The Seattle Mariners have overtaken the A’s for second place in the AL West but now get tested by the Houston Astros, who are 4.5 games clear on top of the division. These sides have met for six games spread across two series over the last few weeks and they have split those, winning three each. Can Seattle continue their push for an unlikely Wild Card berth or will the Astros show why they are on top of the division?
Tim Newton
When looking into this game, I found that Yusei Kikuchi and Lance McCullers Jr are the two starters for the clash. Over the last two weeks the Mariners and Astros have played each other in two series and in both of those series, Kikuchi and McCullers Jr started in the same game as each other as well. One game saw them both allow no runs but Seattle ended up coming out on top at home, but the other is the one that interests me most.
When both pitchers started together in the clash in Houston, McCullers Jr gave up two runs from six innings of work but Kikuchi lasted just two innings after allowing the Astros to score seven runs, with Houston going on to win that clash 12-3. While it isn’t everything, the fact that this game is back in Houston has to give the Astros a massive edge, especially when you look at those results. McCullers Jr is the more trusted pitcher and has a more explosive, albeit more inconsistent as well, batting lineup to back him up.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros (-230)
Needed it. Got it. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/TmMx283gxv
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 6, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
This is going to be the series of most importance over the next few days. Both teams are in the AL West, and the Astros are leading the way, but the Mariners are just four and a half games behind. If the Mariners can manage some wins here, it will also mean a loss for the Astros, which can help them close the gap faster. The Mariners have won five of their previous six division games and are currently on a five game winning streak.
On the flip side, the Astros have won five of their previous 10 games overall, and have won 87 of their previous 123 when it comes to the first game of the series. The Mariners are doing very well at the moment, but I’m going to have to go with the Astros here, mainly because they love a left handed pitcher, and I think the Astros will be able to cover the spread playing at home.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (-105)
Mike Su
The Astros take on the Mariners in a series that could decide the AL West. This matchup is key for the Mariners, who hold just a 7.3% chance of making the playoffs and are 4.5 games back from the Astros for the division title whilst also being three games back from a Wild Card slot in the American League. The Mariners will be playing for their lives in these next three games in Houston. The cards are stacked against Seattle with Lance McCullers Jr starting for the Astros. McCullers Jr has been good this year with a 3.20 ERA and 10-4 record.
In his last game, McCullers Jr allowed 0 runs and had three strikeouts in five innings. This bodes extremely well for the Astros, who know they need to keep winning to stay on top of the division. On the other hand, Seattle is playing Yusei Kikuchi, who has been hit or miss this season. Overall Yusei has a 4.12 ERA which is decent, as well as a 1.23 WHIP. Yusei is a top 30 pitcher but is very streaky. In his games against the Astros he has also been inconsistent. I think the weight of this victory lies on Yusei Kikuchi and whether or not he can pull through. I’m going to bet that he can.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-111)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
