The final week of the regular season is here! There are still playoff spots to be played for and the action is heating up. We have made our best MLB picks for the five games scheduled on Monday, September 27th.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five games on today’s schedule!
One week left!!! 😱 pic.twitter.com/kqiAGZBW2w
— MLB (@MLB) September 27, 2021
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians – 1.10PM EDT
The Cleveland Indians host the Kansas City Royals in the first of a four game series to start the week, however this will be the only game in Cleveland before the series heads to Kauffman Stadium. This all-AL Central clash has two teams facing off that are just playing for pride as the season dwindles away.
These sides met just last week, with Cleveland winning that series 2-1. They get to stay at home for this clash and that will give them an advantage for this clash. While they are just below 0.500 at home, Kansas City are 10 games below 0.500 on the road this series, and they have the confidence of last week’s performance to go in with.
Adding to that, Cleveland’s starter is much better than Kansas City’s starter, giving them another edge in this game. Cal Quantrill has seen 39 games this season, starting in 21 of them. From those games he has a 7-3 record and 2.82 ERA while he is yet to register a loss from his 21 home games, 13 of which were starts. On paper, Quantrill is clearly better than Jackson Kowar, who has posted an 0-4 record and incredible 11.45 ERA from his seven games, with six of those being starts. He has given up 28 runs on 31 hits from just 22 innings of work in those seven appearances and should allow the Cleveland batting lineup, at home, to tee off and swing for the fences.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+118)
In a game between two teams eliminated from playoff contention, the Royals play the Indians for what figures to be an unpredictable matchup. With both teams having little to play for, this game could swing either way. The Indians definitely have the edge here, as they have won 12 of the 15 games between the division rivals. The Indians are also starting Cal Quantrill who has been great this season. The 4th year player has a 2.82 ERA this year, 1.118 WHIP and 7-3 record this season. Quantrill provides a beacon of hope for this Indians team who has won 5 of their last 10 games.
The Royals on the other hand will be seeing what they have in rookie Jackson Kowar. Kowar has played 22 innings this season and has been bad to say the least. Kowar has 28 runs allowed in just 22 innings and has an 0-4 record. The Royals will likely be playing around with their batting rotation as well to see what they have. I think the Indians win this easily behind Quantrill.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+118)
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – 1.10PM EDT
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds face off in a stand-alone game to start the week. This game was scheduled to be played last Wednesday, with the sides splitting the first two games of that series.
This NL Central showdown should see the Reds get the better of the Pirates, however stranger things have happened. Pittsburgh are yet to name their starter, which adds even more intrigue to this clash. Especially when considering that Cincinnati, who are virtually eliminated from playoff contention, are giving Reiver Sanmartin his first shot at pitching in the majors.
Sanmartin has definitely earnt his call up. In the Minors he has had a 10-2 record from 25 games, 17 of which were starts, with a rock solid 3.32 ERA. While the majors is a massive step up, he is only playing the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the fourth worst record in baseball and are just 24-56 on the road this season. This one may go either way, but I’ll back Sanmartin to perform well on debut.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-160)
The 58-win Pirates play their division rival the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds are currently on a 3 game winning streak as they hold on to a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. The Reds must somehow close the 6 game gap between themselves and the Cardinals to have a playoff berth. This is unlikely but I still expect a lot of fight from this Reds team. The Reds have been decent lately with 6 wins in their last 10s and should extend that against the bottom of division Pirates.
The Reds will be starting Reiver Sanmartin in his first MLB game ever. Sanmartin provides a huge wild card for this matchup but will have a reasonably easy matchup against the Pirates and their woeful batting unit. In the minor leagues Sanmartin was decent with a 3.32 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 100 innings. This will definitely take a big hit as he plays his first major league game. I’m going to trust the rookie who has performed well in the minors and is going to have a Cinderella entrance into the Majors.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds (-160)
The Big 3⃣-0⃣ pic.twitter.com/2xB6xlG8Po
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 25, 2021
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers – 1.10PM EDT
We have another stand-alone game, this time between the Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox. While Detroit has been eliminated from playoff contention, the AL Central-leading White Sox need to get their act together before the postseason begins.
These sides faced each other last week and Detroit managed to steal both games to start the series. Does that mean that they win tonight’s clash? Both starting pitchers have negative records and ERAs above 5.00 for the season, indicating that this may be a shoot-off. Which batting lineup is best prepared to connect well and put the most runs on the board, as it looks like there will be very little defense played.
Neither Dallas Keuchel or Matt Manning inspire much confidence but once has performed better of late, and that is the way I’m going with my pick. Keuchel’s last seven games has seen him return a 1-3 record and 7.92 ERA while Manning is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA over the same span. That means that Detroit’s batting lineup will have some better support and should allow them to get the win at home.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Detroit Tigers (+132)
The White Sox sit firmly atop the AL Central division and have very little to play for. Although playoff seeding is still a consideration for the White Sox, they haven’t played with much enthusiasm lately dropping a bunch of easy games against easy opponents. This includes losses to the Tigers, Indians, Rangers and Angels who are all out of playoff contention. I think this matchup could be another easy loss for the White Sox as they start Dallas Keuchel.
Keuchel has been bad this season with a 5.18 ERA, 1.5 WHIP and just 92 strikeouts in 156 innings, leading to a 8-9 record. Keuchel has not been good and in his last game against the Tigers he didn’t play particularly well with just 2 strikeouts in 5 innings. Furthermore, the White Sox also lost that game. In fact, Keuchel has lost his last 4 straight starts. Keuchel’s recent form looks even worse when we look deeper as he has allowed 32 hits and 15 runs in his last 4 games, leading to an ERA of 6.41 across this 4 game stretch. I think Keuchel struggles again and the Tigers sneak away with victory.
Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies – 8.40PM EDT
The Washington Nationals continue their 10-game road trip, finishing it off in Colorado against the Rockies. Tonight is the first of three games between the two sides, with both already being eliminated from playoff contention.
I’m all over the Rockies to win big here. They just mixed it up with the Dodgers and are one of the best home teams in the league, despite being under 0.500 overall. Colorado are 46-32 inside Coors Field while the Nationals are just 29-49 on the road this season. While home-field advantage is definitely a thing, Colorado takes it to a whole different level, especially with the bat. Their batting lineup grows another leg at home and they should be looking to feast on the Nationals.
Washington has selected Josiah Gray to start on the mound and he has a 1-2 record with a 5.92 ERA from his 12 games this season, 11 of which were starts. Over his last seven games, that ERA balloons out to 7.13 and in his four games in September, Gray has given up 18 runs on 19 hits in just 19.1 innings of work. That is a clear sign that the Rockies batting lineup will get an easy go at it and they should capitalize at home.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies -2.5 (+152)
The Rockies play the Nationals in a matchup that has little importance. With both teams will and truly out of the playoff running and both sharing a 4-6 record in their last 10 games, this might turn out to be a tough watch. Both teams are in the midst of losing streaks, with the Nationals having a 3 game losing streak and the Rockies possessing a 4 game losing streak. The Rockies have had to face much tough competition during their recent stretch with back to back series against the 100-win Dodgers and 102-win Giants. The Nationals on the other hand have been dealt this losing streak by the Reds.
The Rockies get a nice change of pace here facing the Nationals and will likely claw out a victory. They will have the edge with pitching as they start German Marquez who has a 4.32 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 175 innings. Although these figures aren’t great, they are much better than Nationals starter Josiah Gray who has a 5.92 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 59 innings. The Rockies batting unit will also finally face an easy bullpen. I think the Rockies win this easily.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+100)
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 26, 2021
Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – 10.10PM EDT
We are treated to another tantalizing series between the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics. Tonight is the first of three games between these AL West rivals and both are still in the hunt for the final American League Wild Card slot.
Considering Seattle have won 12 of the 16 matchups between the two sides, including nine straight, it is hard to go against them in this clash. They are better off in the standings, meaning they are closer to the Red Sox for that last Wild Card slot and they are at home. While location doesn’t seem to matter, considering that the Mariners swept the A’s in Oakland last week, being back in T-Mobile Park certainly gives them an edge.
Both starting pitchers are serviceable and have performed well this season, with each having an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00, but Chris Flexen’s 13-6 record reads a lot better than Cole Irvin’s 10-14 record. That is another advantage for Seattle and it would be foolish to go against their form over the A’s this season.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners (-112)
In the most important matchup of the day the Mariners face the Athletics as they both try to force themselves into one of the 2 Wild Card spots in the American League. The Mariners sit just 2 games out of the final Wild Card spot while the Athletics sit just 3 games out. Both teams are very much in striking distance and a win will be crucial for their chances as the season winds to a close. The Mariners definitely appear in prime position to take this victory and make a push for the final Wild Card spot.
Outside of the insane 14-1 beatdown they received at the hands of the Angels, the Mariners have been great with 8 wins in their last 10 games. This includes 4 straight wins over the As during the last 10 games. The Mariners definitely have the A’s number this season with 12 wins in the 16 games between the teams. A Mariners win looks even more inevitable when looking at the pitching as Chris Flexen will be starting for the Mariners. Flexen has been good this season, including a dominant 8 strikeout game in his last match with the As.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners (-112)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.