The season is winding down and the action is hotting up. Our free MLB Picks are out for Monday, September 13th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals – 7.05PM ET
While this may be an uninspiring matchup between two below 0.500 teams, the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals have just one game between them at the bottom of the NL East standings. This is the first of three games in this series to start the week, so it will be interesting to see which team comes out swinging harder first up!
I’m taking the Marlins to take the opener, on the back of some slightly better form than what Washington has dished up. Both sides took on Atlanta last week, losing their respectives series 2-1, however Miami performed better in those. The Marlins gave up 15 runs, with the most in any game being six runs while the Nationals gave up 17, which isn’t much more but gave up seven and eight in their two losses. Given that I’m not liking what the Washington bullpen is offering, the fact that Paolo Espino is starting has me leaning towards the Marlins even moreso. Espino has a season ERA of 4.35 and over his last seven starts that balloons to 6.98. That should allow Miami, who have a fringe top 10 bullpen, to get on top in this game, restrict runs and come away with the win.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Miami Marlins (+112)
Lewis Brinson – Miami Marlins (8) pic.twitter.com/ZQVMhCZT5I
— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) September 5, 2021
The three game series kicks off between the Marlins and the Nationals on Monday night. The Nationals are coming off a 1-2 series loss to the Pirates, and the Marlins are coming off a 1-2 series loss to the Braves. Both teams are out of contention for the postseason, so they are just playing for pride. The Marlins have won just two of their previous seven games on a Monday, and have won 16 of their previous 53 when it comes to the first game of a series.
Over to the Nationals now, they have won 16 of their previous 57 games in total, and have won just four of their previous 17 games at home. When the Marlins and the Nationals face off against each other in Washington, the Nationals have won 39 of their previous 52 clashes. I’m liking the way Alcantara is playing for the Marlins at the moment, and if his last game against the Mets is anything to go by, he should be in for another stellar performance. I’ll be on the Marlins to get a win on the road.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Miami Marlins (+112)
The Marlins and Nationals meet for a bottom of division matchup between the two worst teams in the NL East. The Marlins are just one win ahead of the Nationals for the bottom spot in the NL East. Other than pride neither team has much to play for. One of the league’s worst offenses, the Marlins 28th ranked batting unit, takes on one of the league’s worst defenses, the Nationals. The Nationals will be starting the slightly worse Paolo Espino who has a 4.35 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
The Marlins will be starting Sandy Alcantara who has been good this year despite a poor 8-13 record. That isn’t an indictment on him but instead highlights how poor the Marlins have played around him. Alcantara has a 3.24 ERA and 1.1 WHIP in 180 innings, with both of these figures sitting 15th in the league. However, the Marlins have been playing well lately with wins against the Braves, Mets and Phillies in their last 10. That combined with Alcantara means I’m going with the Marlins
Mike’s MLB Pick: Miami Marlins (+112)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays – 7.07PM ET
We have a top of the table clash as the two top teams in the AL East face off for a three game series to start the week. The opener will be a good insight into how both sides are going, given Toronto has won nine of their last 10 and the Rays just lost a series to the Tigers over the weekend.
The Blue Jays are the in-form team in all of baseball right now and they now return home for this marquee matchup. That is a massive positive for them as they perform much better in front of their Toronto fans. I’m leaning towards the home team even more when looking at the fact that Tampa have gone just 1-3 over their last four games and are still yet to name a starter. That does bring some unknown into the matchup but with the Blue Jays starting Alek Manoah, that does look very positive for them. Through 16 starts this season, Manoah is 5-2 with a 3.71 ERA and is 3-0 from seven starts at home. Given that the Blue Jays are coming off a 22 run performance last night and have, arguably, the best batting lineup in the league, Toronto should end up on top in this clash.
This is the series I’ve got my eye on, the Rays and the Blue Jays face off for three games. The Rays have the AL East covered, with the Blue Jays and the Red Sox nine games behind them. But where it gets interesting is the Blue Jays who are fighting for a Wild Card spot, and have won nine games out of their previous 10 to give them a great shot! When we dig into the key stats for this game, we can see that the Rays have won five of their previous six when it comes to the first game of the series, and they have won 20 of their previous 27 games on the road.
Over to the Blue Jays key stats now, they have won just three of their previous 10 games on a Monday, and when they play a team with a winning percentage higher than .600, they have won just 35 of their previous 108. There is no denying that the Blue Jays are red hot, and they have only lost one game so far this month, and they also have more to play for, with a lot of other teams fighting out for the Wild Card spots, whereas the Rays have already got the top spot wrapped up. I’ll be on the Blue Jays to continue their wonderful form.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
The ascending Blue Jays take on the 89-win Rays in an important series for the AL East Division. After sitting at 4th in the AL East, the Blue Jays have since played lights out with just 2 losses in their last 16 games. The Blue Jays now sit at 2nd in the AL East and look to solidify their position by beating the division leader. Toronto will be starting Alek Manoah in this matchup at pitcher. Manoah has been good this season with a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 85 innings, leading to a 5-2 record.
The Rays will be countering Manoah with Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbrough has been respectable this year with a 8-4 record, 4.90 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The Blue Jays definitely have the edge when it comes to pitching. With both teams possessing a very similarly ranked batting lineup, I have to go with the red-hot Blue Jays to come out victorious and solidify the 2nd spot in the AL East.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants – 9.45PM ET
After getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend, the San Diego Padres now have to face the San Francisco Giants, who have won seven straight games. San Diego needs wins to cling on to that last Wild Card slot in the National League, but can they get them in San Francisco?
Given their recent form, I don’t see how the Padres will be able to steal a victory in this one. I’m intrigued to see how this game plays out given that the Giants have chosen Dominic Leone to start, who has seen 45 games but started in just two of them. In those two starts, he pitched for just one and two innings respectively without giving up a hit in either game. That isn’t a lot to go off, but where San Francisco gets the job done is their entire bullpen, which is top three in baseball this season.
San Diego’s bullpen is no slouch though, sneaking into the top 10 across the country, but Yu Darvish is uninspiring to start with. An 8-9 record with a 3.95 ERA is not the sort of figures you want heading into a clash with the best team in baseball with a top three batting lineup. The Giants should take this one comfortably in my eyes.
Tim’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+172)
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 12, 2021
The Padres and the Giants go to battle in a four game series, with the Giants needing every victory they can get to fight off the Dodgers team that are just two and a half games behind them in the NL West. The Padres may be well out of it for the NL West top spot, but they are still in with a great chance to claim the second Wild Card spot, which just shows how competitive the NL West is this year! Over to some key stats for this game now. The Padres have won eight of their previous 26 games in total, and they have won only four of their previous 15 games on the road.
Looking at the Giants now, they have won four of their previous five games on a Monday, and they have won 39 of their previous 57 games in total. The thing that is letting the Padres down at the moment is their offense, and when coming up against a team like the Giants, I think they are going to struggle. I’ll be on the Giants for the win.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (-120)
The league-best Giants look to extend their lead over their division rivals, the LA Dodgers, with a win over their other division rivals, the San Diego Padres. The Padres on the other hand are fighting for their chance in the playoffs. They currently sit at a 36.2% chance of making the playoffs in a Wild Card spot. In their last game the Giants barely beat the Cubs despite starting one of their best pitchers. The Padres haven’t looked great either, losing 3 straight games against the Dodgers, including 2 games where they failed to score a single run.
The Giants will be starting the wildcard Dominic Leone who has been very good in limited action. Leone has a 1.48 ERA, 1.05 and 3-3 record this season. Leone will take on Yu Darvish who has a 3.95 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 8-9 record. Pitching wise, despite Leone’s better numbers, I’d say the situation is very similar due to Leone’s lack of significant playing time. Thus I have to look at the batting situation where the Giants rank 7th in the league in runs per game and 3rd for home runs per game. Thus, I’m going with the Giants to win in a close one.
Mike’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (-120)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10.10PM ET
This NL West showdown sees the second-placed Los Angeles Dodgers host the last-placed Arizona Diamondbacks. Both sides come into this with some good form behind them, with the Dodgers sweeping the Padres over the weekend while Arizona have won two straight, beating the Mariners in Seattle.
This may seem crazy, but I am taking the Diamondbacks with the runs in this one. You are getting better than even odds for Arizona +1.5 runs and they are coming off two impressive wins on the road over the weekend. However, where I think they have their chance is the fact that Clayton Kershaw returns for LA. That may seem like it should be a positive for the Dodgers, but Kershaw hasn’t seen any action in over two months and gave up 3+ runs in exactly half his games from the start of May up until he missed some time. While the Dodgers are the World Series favorites, have been one of the best teams all season and are at home, I think this may be the perfect opportunity for them to get beaten.
Just the series the Dodgers need to try and overtake the Giants at the top of the NL West. The Diamondbacks have the second worst record in the entire league, at 47-96, and sit a mammoth 46 games behind the Giants. The Dodgers won all three of their games with the Padres in the previous series, and are certainly expected to win all these games with the Diamondbacks, which will put them in a great position to overtake the Giants. All the stats support a Dodgers victory here, but first let’s look at the Diamondbacks.
The Diamondbacks have won just nine of their previous 54 games on the road, and have won 13 of their previous 51 when playing a team in the NL West. Now onto the Dodgers, they have won seven of their previous 10 games on a Monday, and have won 73 of their previous 103 games at home. This should be an easy victory for the Dodgers here.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -3.5 (+194)
The Dodgers have started generating some momentum again, with 3 straight wins after slipping in their 10 games prior. Now, with just a handful of games remaining, they need to claw back the 2.5 game lead that the Giants have for the NL West division crown. The Dodgers will have a favorable path to do so with a series against one of the worst teams in the league, the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks will face the absolute beast, Clayton Kershaw at pitcher in this important series for the Dodgers.
Kershaw has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB for most of his career and has been great this season. Kershaw has a 3.39 ERA and 0.98 WHIP for a surprisingly average 9-7 record. Kershaw also has 127 strikeouts this season in 106 innings. The Diamondbacks will be starting Zac Gallen who has been decent with a 4.32 ERA and 1.3 WHIP leading to a bad 2-9 record. Overall, despite Gallen likely to provide a speed bump, the Dodgers are far superior in every facet of the game to lose this game. In fact, it would be embarrassing if the Dodgers didn’t win by at least 4 runs.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-132)
Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners – 10.10PM ET
Both the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox are coming off 1-2 series losses over the weekend, losing to the Diamondbacks and White Sox respectively. You may notice the quality of opponents that each team has played, highlighting Seattle’s form may not be up to it against a Boston side that is currently a Wild Card team.
I can’t be with Seattle on the back of their weekend form. While both sides went 1-2, one played a division leader and the other played one of the worst teams in baseball. Seattle shouldn’t be losing two of three games at home to a team like Arizona and Boston looks like they are ready to pounce. Both sides are starting pitchers with ERAs over five, highlighting that this could be a high-scoring affair.
It also means it will come down to which team can score enough to win. Looking at OPS, Boston is ranked third while Seattle is just 27th. Looking at hits, Boston ranks third and Seattle is last, having had the fewest hits this season. Looking at runs, Boston ranks fourth while Seattle comes in at 22nd. You get the point I’m making? Boston’s batting lineup is better equipped to take advantage of this game and should get the job done.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox / Over 7.5 (+200)
MITCH 🙌 pic.twitter.com/kdfjZxATOw
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 12, 2021
The Mariners and the Red Sox kick off a three game series on Monday night. The Mariners are coming off a 1-2 series loss to the Diamondbacks, and the Red Sox are also coming off a 1-2 series loss, but to the White Sox. Let’s look at some of the key stats for this clash now! The Red Sox have won seven of their previous 22 games on the road, and they have won two of their previous seven clashes with the Mariners in Seattle.
The Mariners have won six of their previous eight games on a Monday, and have won seven of their previous 10 games overall. Both the Mariners and the Red Sox are having problems finishing off games, and are letting leads go. The Red Sox series with the White Sox, was very close with all games being decided by just one run. If the Red Sox can just line up a few things here, they should be good enough to get the victory against the Mariners.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox (-130)
The Red Sox are looking to claw back that 2nd ranking in the AL East from the Blue Jays with a win against the tough Mariners. After an average run, where the Red Sox have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games, they are now in a three-way race with the Yankees and Blue Jays for the 2nd spot in the AL East. The Mariners on the other hand have just a 3.1% probability to make the playoffs this season. However, a win against the Red Sox would certainly boost those odds and make a Wild Card appearance seem exponentially less improbable.
The Red Sox will be starting Eduardo Rodriguez to face the 22nd ranked batting unit in the league. Rodriguez has a bad 5.15 ERA and 1.39 WHIP this season. Although that is worrying, Rodriguez has 159 strikeouts in 136 innings and could be a wildcard in this matchup, especially against a bottom 10 unit. The Mariners will be starting Logan Gilbert against the formidable 4th ranked Boston batting unit. Gilbert has similar stats to Roriguez with a 5.10 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Overall, the Red Sox batting unit will be the group that makes the difference in this matchup as they will likely embarrass Gilbert and the Mariners’ 16th ranked run defense.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+128)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.