Our free MLB Picks are out for Friday, August 20th, 2021! Make sure you check our MLB Picks before the action kicks off.
Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Atlanta Braves @ Baltimore Orioles – 7.05PM ET
Two teams trending in opposite directions face off in the first of a three game series tonight as the Baltimore Orioles host the Atlanta Braves. Baltimore is riding a 15 game losing streak, not even getting within two runs of their opponent during that stretch, while Atlanta has won six straight and nine of their last 10, taking control of the NL East division.
Tim Newton
A pretty straightforward pick here. As mentioned above, Baltimore has lost 15 straight and they have only lost by 2 or less once over that stretch, to the lowly Tigers. Meanwhile, Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the league and doesn’t look like losing a game any time soon. Even without looking at the starting pitchers, I’d take the Braves at the line, but looking at it, they could win by even more. Baltimore’s starter Keegan Akin has a terrible 0-7 record from 17 games, 10 of which were starts, and has an equally terrible 8.13 ERA. His last four starts have seen him give up 19 runs across just 13 innings of work. Meanwhile Max Fried, Atlanta’s starter has very serviceable numbers of 10-7 with a 3.78 ERA from 20 starts, meaning Atlanta should get a massive head start in this game and the Orioles won’t be able to catch up.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -2.5 (+100)
Braves WIN!
Final: #Braves 11, Marlins 9.#ForTheA pic.twitter.com/bAwEA7RXtQ
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) August 19, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
This is the first game of a three game series between the Braves and the Orioles. The Braves are having a fantastic run of it lately, winning six games in a row, whereas the Orioles are massively struggling, losing 15 games in a row. The Orioles have won just 23 of their previous 72 games on a Friday and only 18 of their previous 58 games played at home. Whereas, the Braves have won all five of their previous games after they have a win and have won all five of their previous games when it comes to the first game of the series. This should be an easy one, the Braves to win convincingly here.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-142)
Mike Su
The Braves play the Orioles looking to hold onto their NL East Division lead. The Braves have been in stunning form winning 9 of their last 10 and are currently enjoying a 6 game winning streak. The Orioles are completely the opposite, playing in historically bad form. They are sitting on a 15 losing streak and have a staggering run differential of -227 for the season, the only team under -200. This statistically means they lose every game by an average of almost 2 runs. Granted the Orioles have been playing against the best teams in the league the past few weeks but this form is unbelievably bad. To make the bad even worse, the Orioles are starting Keegan Akin, who has a delightful 0-7 record and an atrocious 8.13 ERA. The Braves on the other hand are turning to the reliable Max Fried who has a 10-7 record and respectable 3.78 ERA. This is really a no contest for the Braves, the Braves should win this by a lot.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-150)
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays – 7.10PM ET
Two American League divisional leaders square off in Tampa, with the two sides jostling for who could be the number one seed of the conference. The Chicago White Sox get on the road to face the Tampa Bay Rays, with both sides coming off a series win earlier this week.
Tim Newton
I’m going with the White Sox, who are favourites on the road in this one. While Tampa took the opener, in Chicago, when these sides last met, the White Sox went on to win the next two games by a combined four runs. That is a positive sign heading into this and even more so that they have the better starting pitcher in tonight’s clash. While Lucas Giolito is just 9-9 from 24 starts, but he has a 3.83 ERA and from 67 innings pitched on the road, he has given up just 30 runs and eight home runs. Comparing him to Michael Wacha, you can see the difference in quality. Wacha is just 2-4 with a 5.91 ERA from 21 games, 16 of which were starts. This one will be close, and I’m excited to see how it pans out, but I am backing the stats and the odds.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-126)
Katherine Mouradian
This is the first of a three game series between the White Sox and the Rays. The Rays are coming off a series win against the Orioles, which isn’t really that hard to do, winning all four games in that series. The White Sox are also coming off a series win, but this time to a more serious playoff contender, in the Athletics, the White Sox won that series 3-1. Let’s dive into some stats now! The Rays have won all six of their previous six games played on a Friday and have won all four of their previous games when it comes to the first game of a series. The White Sox have won 12 of their previous 16 games against a team in the AL East, and they have won all six of their previous games when it comes to the first game of the series. Both teams have been playing well, and this one is tricky to pick, but I’m liking the value of the Rays here, as Wacha has been pitching well, and the Rays are at home.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays (+106)
Mike Su
2 of the best teams in the league face off in a heavyweight matchup. The 75 win Rays are playing as underdogs to the 71 win Astros due to the pitching situation. This will be an interesting game as both starting pitchers aren’t particularly of note. The White Sox have the edge as they start Lucas Giolito who is 9-9 and sports a 3.83 ERA. Giolito has 161 strikeouts which is good enough for 13th in the MLB. The Rays aren’t looking as good at pitcher as they start Michael Wacha who has a 2-4 record and a poor 5.91 ERA. Wacha trails Giolito in almost every category. Overall, I still lean toward the Rays despite the lopsided pitching situation as they have shown the ability to perform when it matters, both this season and last season as the world champions. The edge I give to the Rays isn’t worth the odds provided so instead I’m going with the overs here as neither pitcher makes me particularly fearful and I see the first game of this series being a shootout.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Over 9 total runs (-112)
Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros – 8.10PM ET
A three game AL West showdown kicks off tonight as the Houston Astros host the Seattle Mariners. Houston has had a tough go at it lately, dropping four of their last five games and losing grip of their spot on top of the division, while Seattle has hit their strides, winning seven of their last eight and are just three games back from a wild card slot.
Tim Newton
I’m backing the recent form and going with the Mariners in this one. Like Atlanta, they are one of the hottest teams in the league. In saying that, their current run of wins has come solely against the Rangers and Blue Jays, but you can only beat what is in front of you and that is what they are doing. Houston on the other hand have been dropping games that they shouldn’t be and are out of form on both sides of the ball. Lance McCullers Jr. is a good pitcher on surface value, posting a 9-4 record with a 3.22 ERA from 20 starts. However, when looking at his stats at home, his record is just 2-3 while his ERA goes out to 3.72. Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi improves when pitching on the road. He has a 7-6 record with a 3.82 ERA from 22 starts, but when on the road those numbers go to 5-2 with an ERA of just 3.10. Given the Astros are out of form and these pitching stats lean in favour of Seattle, to be getting them as underdogs in the spread is a treat.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-120)
Back-to-back and the @Mariners take the lead 💣💣 pic.twitter.com/4NjgJ14L0k
— MLB (@MLB) August 15, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
Friday marks the first game of this three game series between the Mariners and the Astros. The Astros are coming off a surprising loss to the Royals (1-3) and the game they did win, it took them the 10th innings to do so! The Mariners are coming off a nice series win against the Rangers, 3-0. The Mariners have won just 19 of their previous 62 games when playing the Astros in Houston, but they have won their previous four games on the road. When it comes to the Astros, they have won 41 of their previous 60 games on a Friday, but only one of their previous five games overall. While McCullers has been playing pretty well for the Astros, I think the Mariners will be able to give them a run for their money.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-120)
Mike Su
The Astros host the Mariners in an inter-division game with big implications. The Mariners sit just 3 games behind the Athletics and 5.5 games behind the Astros, who lead the AL West. If the Astros drop this game, this benefits both the Athletics and Mariners.The Astros have finally snapped their losing streak and look somewhat better, but the Mariners definitely have the edge when it comes to form, winning 8 of their last 10 games. The Mariners certainly look like they are heating up down the stretch while the Astros are cooling off. Could this game be the turning point in the AL West? The Mariners are also 4-0 in their last 4 games against AL West rivals and are 8-1 in their last 9 Friday games. Despite the Astros holding an edge when it comes to pitching as they start Lance McCullers Jr, with the Mariners starting Yusei Kikiuchi, this edge is not enough in my opinion. I’m taking the Mariners line as a safe bet here, but I believe that the Mariners have a good chance to win it.
Mike’s MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-120)
San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics – 9.40PM ET
The team with the best record in baseball, the San Francisco Giants, get on the road to face an out-of-form Oakland Athletics. While the Giants seem to just keep winning and keep themselves ahead of the pack in the National League, Oakland is throwing away their opportunity to secure a postseason spot in the American League with their poor play of late.
Tim Newton
This is a tough one but I like the A’s at the line. While Oakland is out of form, they have had to play for 10 straight days, all of which were on the road. They now return home to host a San Francisco side that just lost in a 12-innings classic to the struggling Mets. While the Giants are a better team on paper and in the stats from the season, I’m liking Oakland’s starting pitcher – James Kaprielian. While he is 6-4 with a 3.33 ERA for the season, in his six games at home he is 4-2 with a 1.42 ERA, giving up just six runs from 38 innings of work. Meanwhile, Alex Wood, San Francisco’s starter, has a 4.35 ERA on the road and has given up 20 runs from 41.1 innings pitched in eight games. While I hate betting against the Giants, especially coming off a loss, Oakland with an extra run in the spread is the best value in my eyes.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Oakland Athletics +1.5 (-170)
Katherine Mouradian
Another series kicking off on Friday night, and this has got to be one of the games of the day, when the Giants and the Athletics get together for the first of a three game series. The Giants are coming off a series win against the Mets (2-1), whereas the Athletics are coming off a series loss to the White Sox (1-3). The Giants have won six of their previous eight interleague games and have won 9 of their previous 12 games on a Friday. Looking at the Athletics now, they have won 35 of their previous 52 games on a Friday and have won 47 of their previous 70 games playing at home against the left handed starter. The Athletics have to be down in confidence with their loss to the White Sox, I think the Giants will walk all over them.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+142)
Mike Su
In a game that means a lot for both teams, the league best Giants take on the Oakland Athletics. The Giants hold a measly 2.5 game lead over the Dodgers in the NL West, while the Athletics trail the out of form Astros by 2.5 games in the AL West. The Athletics have not been playing up to their potential and had squandered a four game losing streak, before finally snapping the streak yesterday. The Giants on the other hand have won 8 of their last 10 games and remain in great form despite the Dodgers breathing down their necks. Pitching wise the Athletics do have the edge as they start James Kaprielian, but the edge isn’t much as Kaprielian only holds marginally better averages than the Giants’ pitcher – Alex Wood. I am prone to leaning toward the team that has proven themselves and the Giants have not faltered despite the immense pressure of the NL West, while the Athletics have. Thus, I’m taking the Giants in a close one.
Mike’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (-118)
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10.10PM ET
After taking the first game 4-1, the Los Angeles Dodgers will look to pile on more pain on the New York Mets tonight, playing the second of a four game series. LA have won each of the four games between the sides so far this season and are favoured to do the same in this one.
Tim Newton
Going to keep it short and sweet to round out the night. This one could get ugly. LA should win this by a massive margin, potentially even more than their three run margin last night. Carlos Carrasco is starting for the Mets, who is 0-1 with a stupidly bad 10.32 ERA from four games. Meanwhile LA is starting Walker Buehler, who is 12-2 with a league-best 2.09 ERA. That is more than enough for the Dodgers, who are top five in OPS and runs scored this season, to come out on top in a massive way.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 (+132)
Blake Treinen, just filthy. pic.twitter.com/nfs2zj2NBK
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) August 20, 2021
Katherine Mouradian
This will be the second game of this series between the Mets and the Dodgers, after the first game was won by the Dodgers. The Dodgers remain in second place in the NL West, and are doing all they can to close the gap between them and the first place Giants, who have won seven games in a row. The Mets are in the middle position of the NL East and still are in contention for top spot, as long as they keep winning. The Mets have won four of their previous 10 games overall and only one of their previous five games played on a Friday. Looking at the Dodgers now, they have won 64 of their previous 91 games at home and won 21 of their previous 29 games when playing a team in the NL East. I’ve got my money on the Dodgers to win this clash and go two from two in this series with the Mets so far.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers (-260)
Mike Su
The Dodgers sit just 2.5 games behind the Giants and they are out for blood. The Dodgers have been red-hot and are chasing down the Giants’ division lead. LA has been playing insanely well and are in the middle of a 7 game winning streak. The Mets on the other hand hold onto their playoff hopes with a 13.9% chance of making the playoffs but aren’t looking like a great chance. The optimism within the Mets isn’t high as evidenced by their starting of Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has a mind bendingly bad 10.32 ERA and has been horrible lately. In his last game, Carrasco allowed 6 runs and 3 home runs in just 2 innings, funnily enough, against the Dodgers. LA are going down a completely different route as they start Walker Buehler who has a 12-2 record and the league’s best ERA, with a 2.09 ERA. In his last game, Buehler pitched 7 innings and allowed just 1 run and had 10 strikeouts, leading to a 1.29 ERA. Buehler and the Dodgers are in great form and there is literally no reason for them to lose this game. I’m taking the Dodgers by a huge margin.
Mike’s MLB Pick: LA Dodgers -1.5 (-128)
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
