Look below to find our free MLB Picks for the five best games on today’s schedule!
Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs – 2.20PM ET
The Windy City Showdown will kick off our Friday afternoon of Major League Baseball, with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Chicago White Sox at Wrigley Field for what will be the first of a three game series between these crosstown rivals.
Jesse Livermore
Although he has struggled against the Cubs throughout his career, I can’t go past picking the White Sox on the road with Lance Lynn taking the mound in career best form. With a 10-3 record and 2.07 ERA, Lynn is having a Cy Young caliber season and even though his career ERA against the southsiders crosstown rivals is 4.96, the Cubs’ recent sell off at the trade deadline seriously depleted their 2016 championship lineup. As well as that, the White Sox offense has scored 5.4 runs per game in their last five and I like them to put up another winning score against the struggling Cubs in Friday’s series opener.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-154)
Tim Newton
Neither team is really inspiring in this matchup but the White Sox have been a class team all season and should get the job done here. The worry is that the White Sox have lost three of their last five series openers, however the Cubs are exactly the same and have performed much worse this season. What is swaying me towards the White Sox even more is that Lance Lynn will start with the ball in his hand and when he has previously, special things happen. With an ERA of 2.07 and a 10-3 record from his 19 starts, Lynn will give the White Sox the edge in this one.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-154)
Katherine Mouradian
The Cubs are coming off a series loss to the Rockies (1-2), whereas the White Sox are coming off a series tie with the Royals (1-1). Unsurprisingly, the stats for this clash all support the White Sox. The White Sox have won 53 of their previous 76 games when they play a team that has a losing record, they have also won four of their previous five clashes when Lynn has been the starter. Looking at the Cubs now, they have won none of their previous four games at home when playing against a right handed starter, and have won two of their previous eight games overall. The White Sox are certainly a good enough team to get the job done on Friday afternoon against the Cubs.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Chicago White Sox (-154)
Lance Lynn. Pitching with 🔥 pic.twitter.com/FrQHHSaUSU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 31, 2021
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies – 7.05PM ET
Top spot in the NL East will be on the line this weekend, as the second placed Philadelphia Phillies are set to host the first placed New York Mets in a three game series at Citizens Bank Park. New York currently holds a half game lead over Philadelphia at the top of the division.
Jesse Livermore
Although Marcus Stroman is having a solid season with the ball for New York, I am going to take the Phillies to continue their solid form at home with Kyle Gibson making his second start for the franchise. Despite his 7-10 record and 2.80 ERA, Stroman gave up four runs in 5.2 innings against the Reds in his last start and the Mets are 1-4 in his last five games. Contrastingly, Gibson was outstanding in his Phillies debut last weekend, allowing just two runs in 6.2 innings. The win improved Gibson to a 7-3 record and dropped his ERA to 2.86. As well as that, Philadelphia have won each of their last five games, four of which came against division rivals, and they are now just half a game behind the struggling New York Mets for top spot in their division. Seeing as New York are 3-7 in their last 10 outings and they are scoring just 3.80 runs per game this season, I’ll be taking Philadelphia at home.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
Tim Newton
The Mets have gone 3-7 from their last 10 games, including a 3-1 loss to the Marlins in their most recent series, and are now just 0.5 games ahead of the Phillies entering this series. On the other hand Philadelphia have won five straight games, including a four-game sweep of the Nationals, in Washington. They now return home and have their new acquisition, Kyle Gibson, starting on the mound. Gibson had been having a great season for the Rangers and continued that form in his first game for the Phillies, limiting Pittsburgh to just two runs from 6.2 innings of work. If he brings that sort of play into this game, it should give Philadelphia a head start over the struggling Mets and help his team to victory.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
Katherine Mouradian
The Mets are coming off a loss to the Marlins (1-3) in their previous series, whereas the Phillies are coming off a win against the Nationals (4-0) and have actually now won five games in a row. The Mets have won 16 of their previous 23 when playing a team that has a winning record, but when you look at their road form, they have won two of their previous seven games. On the other side, the Phillies have won six of their previous eight games after returning from a road trip that lasted longer than seven days. You can’t really knock the recent form of the Phillies and I’ll be backing them to get the win here tonight.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (-110)
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers – 8.10PM ET
Two of the top three teams in the National League will kick off their three game series at American Family Field on Friday night when the NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers host the NL West leading San Francisco Giants.
Jesse Livermore
As good as the Brewers have been this season, getting the Giants at +130 underdog odds for this series opener is too good to pass up. Although they are at home on Friday, Milwaukee have actually done their best work on the road this season, owning a 15 game above .500 record on the road and just a six game above .500 record at home. As well as that, the Brewers offense has been streaky at best in 2021 and they will once again be relying on their pitching staff to get them a win on Friday. Corbin Burnes will be tasked with leading Milwaukee to victory in this matchup, and even though he is in the midst of a solid year, the veteran right hander is coming off his worst start of the season, as he allowed five runs on nine hits in four innings against the Braves. San Francisco have travelled well this season, owning a 34-23 record on the road, and they possess the better lineup in this matchup. Take the Giants on the road at value.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: San Francisco Giants (+130)
Tim Newton
The Giants have won five of their last six games, over the Diamondbacks and Astros, but have to travel to Milwaukee for a tough series against the Brewers. The two division leaders bring some very solid form into this one, especially Milwaukee who have won four straight series and won the first game in each of those. To keep their momentum going, the Brewers have Corbin Burnes starting with the ball and while he was disappointing in his last start, his 2.46 ERA for the season is very impressive and should help keep the Giants’ runs low. He will have to be on top of his game, given San Francisco has Logan Webb starting for them. Since returning from a shoulder injury, Webb has pitched 24 innings and allowed just six runs, giving a good return for his work. This is genuinely a coin-flip in my eyes but given the class of the pitchers, I am taking the under.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Under 8 (-118)
Katherine Mouradian
The Brewers are coming off a series win against the Pirates, but they surprisingly lost one game, the Giants are also coming off a series win, this time against the Diamondbacks, and they also dropped one game. When we look a little closer at some of the important stats, the Giants have won eight of their previous 10 games that are played on a Friday, and 22 of their previous 30 when it comes to the first game of a series. On the flip side, the Brewers have won all their previous four clashes when it comes to the first game of a series, and five of their previous six games on a Friday. If Burnes can get his pitching back on track, I think the Brewers will be very hard to beat.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Milwaukee Brewers (-154)
Happy flight! 😄✈️ pic.twitter.com/7YS7YurDcq
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) August 5, 2021
Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics – 9.40PM ET
Next up, a pair of AL West rivals will kick off their three game series at O.co Coliseum when the second placed Oakland Athletics host the last placed Texas Rangers.
Jesse Livermore
Seeing as Oakland are four and half games back in the AL West and six of their next nine games will be coming against the division’s last placed Texas Rangers, I can’t go past the A’s at home in this matchup as they look to strengthen their claims an an AL West contender and American League wildcard lock. As well as their increased incentive, Oakland will also have a vastly superior advantage in the pitching matchup, as All-Star Chris Bassitt will look to continue his career best season on Friday. Bassitt is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA this season and the right hander is fresh off a seven innings shutout performance against the Angels in his last start. Contrastingly, Texas will be sending Mike Foltynewicz to the mound on Friday. Foltynewicz is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA this year and I can’t see the Rangers upsetting the A’s at home with him on the mound.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-120)
Tim Newton
While Texas have lost three straight games, they had won four of six before that and weirdly have some momentum heading into this series. However, they now have to get on the road to face a very good ballclub in Oakland. The Rangers are just 13-40 on the road this season while the A’s are 31-25 at home and impressed in their two-game series split with the Padres most recently. Adding to why Oakland will come out and dominate this clash is that Chris Bassitt is starting with the ball and he boasts an 11-3 record and 3.28 ERA for the season. Given the Rangers struggles on the road and Bassitt with ball in hand first, this could get ugly.
Tim’s MLB Pick: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-120)
Katherine Mouradian
The Rangers are coming off a series loss to the Angels (1-3) and have lost three games in a row now, whereas the Athletics are coming off a series tie with the Padres (1-1). The Ranges have won just 18 of their previous 60 when it comes to the first game of a series, and 16 of their previous 75 games on the road. The Athletics have much better stats, they have won 11 of their previous 15 games after they have a day off and have won 36 of their previous 53 when playing a team that had a win percentage of under .400. I’ll be taking the Athletics to win comfortably here.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-120)
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres – 10.10PM ET
The NL West will close out our Friday night MLB schedule as the third placed San Diego Padres are set to host the last placed Arizona Diamondbacks for the first match of their three game series at Petco Park.
Jesse Livermore
As they are at home, have the advantage in the pitching matchup and the vastly superior offense, all signs are pointing to the Padres at Petco Park for Friday’s series opener. Firstly, San Diego owns a 36-22 record at home this season, the best of any National League team, while Arizona have taken the mantle of the league’s worst travelling team from Colorado thanks to their 13-41 record on the road. Secondly, Ryan Weathers (3.65 ERA) still owns a vastly superior ERA than Caleb Smith (5.04 ERA) despite allowing eight earned runs in his last start. As well as that, Smith has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 7.2 innings. And finally, the Padres are scoring 4.79 runs per game this season, while the Diamondbacks are scoring just 4.12 runs per game this year. Don’t worry about the Tatis Jr. injury, take San Diego at home.
Jesse’s MLB Pick: San Diego Padres (-220)
Tim Newton
Arizona just had a seven game stint at home and only managed to win two games over that time. They now face the Padres, in San Diego, who have a point to prove after splitting their last home series, which was four games against the inconsistent Rockies. The Padres hold just a 3.5 game lead for a wild card slot in the National League and need to win these sorts of games, against a much worse opponent. This Diamondbacks team can surprise, especially given they have stolen a game off the Dodgers and Giants in recent weeks, however I like the Padres at home.
Tim’s MLB Pick: San Diego Padres (-220)
Katherine Mouradian
The Padres are coming off a series tie with the Athletics (1-1) and the Diamondbacks are coming off a series loss to the Giants (1-3). The Padres have managed to score an impressive 20 runs in the previous three games, and when they score four runs or more they have won six of their previous 10 games. On the other side, the Diamondbacks have won just seven of their previous 26 when it comes to the first game of the series and won just two of their previous eight clashes in San Diego. Tatis Jr, is still injured for the Padres, but playing at home and with the season the Diamondbacks are having, the Padres are good enough to get the win here.
Katherine’s MLB Pick: San Diego Padres (-220)
Anddd Tatis dislocated the left shoulder again
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) July 31, 2021
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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel
