The PGA Tour season wraps up with the TOUR Championship this weekend, held at East Lake, and we have made our free golf picks for all of the action. Dustin Johnson the 2020 TOUR Championship with a score of -21, but can he defend his crown given he hasn’t won a tournament since November last year?
Patrick Cantlay and Bryson DeChambeau both come in with some blistering form, going to a sixth hole playoff in last week’s BMW Championship, won by Cantlay. Meanwhile, Jon Rahm is the +380 co-favorite, with Cantlay, and is looking to add another major to his trophy cabinet after taking out the US Open just a few months ago.
Given the nature of the TOUR Championship, it isn’t a level playing field to start the tournament. Patrick Cantlay has performed the best throughout the year and starts the tournament at -10. He has a two shot advantage over the next best golfer, Tony Finau and a four shot advantage over co-favorite, Jon Rahm.
Defending champion Dustin Johnson is starting the tournament at -3 and will have to be on top of his game in order to win for a second straight year.
Best Bet To Win The 2021 TOUR Championship
Patrick Cantlay (+380)
Coming off his incredible win last week, Cantley comes into this weekend in the best form of his life and an advantage over the rest of the field. Having a two shot advantage heading into the weekend puts some pressure on Cantley, but he just showed us that he is a smooth operator, outlasting DeChambeau in a six-hole-playoff.
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) August 30, 2021
The thing that got him the win and that should hold him in good stead for this weekend is his putter. Cantlay was on fire on the greens during the BMW Championship, making shots left, right and center. ShotLink was brought into golf in 2004 and no player has gained more strokes on the green over a tournament weekend.
During the BMW Championship, Cantlay was 3.6 shots better on the greens per round, which is a massive 14.4 shots across the tournament. If he carries that form into the TOUR Championship, he will be very hard to catch.
Best Value Bet In The 2021 TOUR Championship
Scottie Scheffler Top 5 (+950)
Scheffler has an infinity for East Lake, given he debuted here and has had some exceptional rounds on this course, finishing with scores of 66, 66 and 65 in that debut. He also had the second lowest 72-hole score here last year, behind Xander Schauffele, adding more to the fact that he loves this course.
When looking at his recent form, he finished up -14 at the BMW Championship last weekend and finished fifth in strokes gained from approach shots, highlighting he is on top of his game at the moment. He is starting at -1 heading into the weekend, however that is only four shots behind fifth place and clearly has some of the best form at the course out of the 30-player field. You can even get +300 for Scheffler to finish in the top 10, but we are hunting some odds and this looks like a good bet.
It is scary to not bet on Jon Rahm. He has been the most consistent player on tour this year and would likely be starting with the lead if it wasn’t for testing positive for COVID-19.. Twice! Obviously the highlight of the year was the U.S. Open win and he would have added the Memorial if he didn’t test positive mid-tournament, given he had a six stroke lead with just one day to play.
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) August 27, 2021
The query is that he starts four strokes back from Cantlay for the weekend, but his power with his driver and consistent level of play all year should have him in the finish on Sunday.
Top 10 Favorites to win the 2021 TOUR Championship:
Jon Rahm (+380)
Patrick Cantlay (+380)
Bryson DeChambeau (+500)
Tony Finau (+650)
Justin Thomas (+1600)
Dustin Johnson (+2200)
Rory McIlroy (+2200)
Cameron Smith (+2200)
Xander Schauffele (+2600)
Jordan Spieth (+2600)
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*Odds correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.