Our free College Football Picks have sorted through the schedule to find you the five best games of Week Eleven action! Our experts have analysed the form and found their best bets for each game, including three games having ranked opponents face off.
Week Eleven is headlined by the giant-killers, Purdue, being ranked for the first time this season and having to travel to Ohio Stadium to take on the number four ranked Buckeyes.
Don’t miss out on our preview for each game along with our College Football Picks for the five best games of this week’s schedule!
#8 Oklahoma @ #13 Baylor – 12pm ET
The undefeated Oklahoma Sooners have a tough three-week stretch to end the regular season and it starts with a trip to McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears. While the Sooners are the clear top team in the Big 12, the Bears are jostling with Oklahoma State for that #2 seed in the conference.
Tim Newton
This is going to be one heck of a game. Baylor are coming off a shock loss to TCU but are putting their undefeated home record on the line when they host the #1 team in the conference and #8 team in the country. While it is just one loss, one the road, there is a worrying sign with Bears’ QB Gerry Bohanan. In his last two games he has 3 touchdowns compared to 4 interceptions, and has averaged only 202 yards per game across those two.
While they were able to beat Texas two weeks ago, his errors were costly against TCU and they will be again this week against Oklahoma. While the Sooners do rank lower than Baylor in overall defense, their running defense is better, meaning they will be able to limit, to some capacity, the impact of Abram Smith. Last week was the first time in their last five games that Smith didn’t have a touchdown and the Sooners should follow TCU’s blueprint of making the Baylor offense rely on Bohanan, which has proven to be not a winning formula.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma has the 11th best offense in the country, with Caleb Williams shining as the starting QB. In his four games as starter, Williams has 14 touchdowns and just one pick, highlighting the control, poise and precision that this Sooner offense needed, and I think it will be on display again in this one.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Oklahoma (-240)
1️⃣ of 1️⃣5️⃣ semifinalists for the Walter Camp Player of the Year.
➡️ https://t.co/EZnA1jK6oM | #OUDNA pic.twitter.com/x5LTw85psu
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) November 11, 2021
Tony Battalio
Oklahoma meets their first real test of the 2021 college football season this Saturday. While Oklahoma may feel slighted in the top 25 rankings only being ranked eighth while being undefeated and being behind several one loss teams they haven’t really played anybody yet this year. Since making the switch at quarterback during the Texas game they have looked like a completely different football team the last few weeks outside of a rare close contest with the Kansas Jayhawks. The Sooners now have a chance to prove themselves in three straight weeks with games against Iowa State and Oklahoma State following this one against Baylor.
As for the Baylor Bears they have put together a pretty decent season for themselves. They come into this one ranked at #13 and the Big Twelve title on their mind. However due to their upset loss last week against TCU and previous loss to Oklahoma State they will need some help to reach the title game this season. This will be a chance for Baylor to play spoiler and potentially ruin the Sooners college football playoff hopes so this is definitely one of the most interesting games of the coming weekend. As for the result of this game, I look for the previously mentioned Baylor Bears covering the spread in this game and potentially winning this one as well.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Baylor +6.5 (-110)
Noah Dunlap
Oklahoma enters this one undefeated and has to look at this matchup as their first opportunity to shine in the CFB Playoff Committee’s eyes. They come in ranked #8, despite having no losses, largely due to the fact that they’ve played no one and they’ve struggled against teams that they had no business struggling with (we’re looking at you, West Virginia and Kansas.) The one positive for OU is that they’ve looked like a totally different team since benching Spencer Rattler in favor of Caleb Williams.
For Baylor, they enter this one coming off of a disappointing loss to a TCU team that had just fired their coach. Despite this loss, the Bears have looked like a really good football team so far this year, as they sit at #13 in the polls right now. The one problem with Baylor is that they seem to go as their QB goes. If Gerry Bohanan is playing well, they’re extremely difficult to beat. However, Bohanan has struggled as of late, and it’s caused issues for the rest of the team.
In the end, I think the play is to take Baylor to at least cover the +5.5, and quite possibly win outright. The Sooners have been playing with fire far too often this season, and eventually if you continue down that path, you end up getting burned. I think this could be the week that finally happens.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Baylor +6.5 (-110)
#6 Michigan @ Penn State – 12pm ET
The Michigan Wolverines were able to bounce back from their first loss of the season to beat Indiana 29-7. They now get on the road to face a Penn State side that is just 3-3 in conference play but snapped their three-game losing streak with a comfortable win in Maryland last weekend. Can the Nittany Lions continue on again or will the Wolverines prove that they are a College Football Playoff contender?
Tim Newton
In what was a surprise move by the selection committee, the Michigan Wolverines are ranked sixth, one spot ahead of the Spartans, who beat them two weekends ago. Will Michigan State did suffer a shock loss to Purdue on the weekend, it is surprising to see how the selectors make their decisions. However, the Wolverines don’t care about their ranking, they just care about beating what is in front of them, and I think they should be able to do that this weekend.
While the Nittany Lions were competitive against Ohio State two weeks ago before jumping back in the winner’s column last week, both their total offense and total defense aren’t on the same level as Michigan. The Wolverines are the sixth best defense in the country and are better at defending the pass than the running game. Given that Penn State relies heavily on the arm of Sean Clifford, I can see the Nittany Lions struggling to move the chains and keep hold of the ball.
Admittedly, Clifford has averaged 362 passing yards per game over his last two, but his worst performance was against Iowa, and this Michigan defense is on that sort of level. This game is almost a pick ‘em in the odds, but I’m happy to take the Wolverines to win and cover.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Michigan -1.5 (-108)
Tony Battalio
Michigan gained new life in the Big Ten title race last week as Michigan State fell to Purdue. Now if Michigan continues winning they still find themselves with an opportunity to win the Big Ten and potentially play in the college football playoff and have a chance to win a national championship for the first time in decades. They face a tough test in an underrated Penn State that is currently 6-3. Penn State looked like the clear favorite in the Big Ten until they lost to Iowa then Ohio State and then got upset by a terrible Illinois team in the longest game in college football history. Now they will look to recover with a huge win over Michigan.
As for the result of this game I expect the Michigan Wolverines to handle their business. Michigan is just too talented of a team to allow themselves to slip up for the second time in three weeks this season. Michigan will win and cover the 1.5 point spread in my opinion and they will do so convincingly. As they work towards an appearance in the Big Ten Title game and a college playoff spot that has slipped away from them in recent years late in the season.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Michigan -1.5 (-108)
Noah Dunlap
Michigan enters this game still controlling their own destiny in terms of a Big Ten title and hopes of a Playoff berth. That’s despite slipping up in a monumental collapse two weeks ago against Michigan State. The Wolverine offense has managed to put up good numbers, even with some iffy numbers through the air, and the defense has, by and large, played good football all year long.
Penn State, on the other hand, has fallen on some rough times, as they slipped up early on against Iowa, and have since lost a 9 OT game (due to absurd, new OT rules), as well as falling in close fashion to Ohio State two weeks ago. The Nittany Lion offense has been underwhelming, which is concerning in this one, but the defense, as it seems with nearly all Big Ten teams, has been above average. I know the easy decision for most is to take Michigan, due to the fact that they’ve played well, however, I’m going the opposite way.
If there’s one thing we know about Michigan football over the past four years, it’s that Jim Harbaugh doesn’t win big games. He proved that once again two weeks ago as his team choked away a 16 point lead late in the third. And now I’m supposed to believe they go to Happy Valley and win in front of 105,000 people? I don’t think so. Give me the Nittany Lions outright.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Penn State (-102)
#19 Purdue @ #4 Ohio State – 3:30pm ET
Could Purdue possibly hand a top five team their first loss for the season for the third time this year? Following last week’s 40-29 victory over the Spartans, the Boilermakers face their toughest test of the season, the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State have now won seven straight games and earned them a spot in the current College Football Playoff picture, but each of their last two wins have been by under 10 points, indicating that they may be vulnerable.
Tim Newton
For the first time over the last two months, the Buckeyes aren’t #1 in terms of total offense in the country. While their 541.8 yards per game is still an absurd number, they have slipped to #3 in those rankings, and their running game has dipped under 200 yards per game for the first time over that stretch. Add in the fact that CJ Stroud is coming off one of his worst games of the season, throwing two picks, and this Buckeye team could be as vulnerable as it was early on in the season.
Considering the Boilermakers are a top 30 defense in the country, who are better at defending the passing game, this one could be interesting. In their wins over Iowa and Michigan State, the Purdue defense had five picks, indicating that they can read the QB and make the right plays.
In saying that, are we really expecting Purdue to get on the road and beat the Buckeyes? Ohio State have had their one bad game, and loss, for the season, and I just don’t see how they have a second, especially this close to the College Football Playoffs. I like the Buckeyes to win, but actually think, given there is a hook, Purdue have a chance at covering as dogs here.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Ohio State (-1500)
Tim’s Bonus College Football Pick: Purdue +21.5 (-118)
🏹 Let. It. 𝐅𝐋𝐘.
Aidan sitting with the best of the best in 𝐁𝐨𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫 history. #BoilerUp pic.twitter.com/NLJiKct3Yk
— Purdue Football (@BoilerFootball) November 10, 2021
Tony Battalio
Purdue has yet another chance to beat another elite top 5 team for what is basically the third week in a row at this point. After a slow start to the season, The Purdue Boilermakers have positioned themselves as potential Big Ten West champions although they will need some help to reach that feat. Meanwhile Ohio State has recovered from an early slip up to Oregon in week 2 to look like one of the country’s best teams and they have themselves positioned for yet another college football berth if they keep playing the way they have. This game could go either way in my opinion as last time they met Purdue blew the doors off of the Buckeyes in a game that would cost Ohio State a chance at the college football playoff. However I believe Ohio State is just too tough for a team for Purdue to handle this time around, so I expect the Buckeyes to come out with a victory in this one especially with them being at home in Columbus. So while I have the Buckeyes winning outright I look for Purdue to cover the three touchdown spread against them and make this game more compelling than most would expect
Tony’s College Football Pick: Purdue +21.5 (-118)
Noah Dunlap
Ohio State has finally found themselves back in the top-4, and are primed for another Playoff appearance, assuming they don’t slip up anywhere else this season. The Buckeye offense has looked like one of the nation’s best units over the past eight weeks, and I expect that to continue in this one, despite playing a stingy Purdue defense, who has shown a tendency to force turnovers. The one problem is that the Ohio State defense is shaky, especially in the secondary.
As for that Purdue team, they look to pull off their third top-5 upset of the season, this time on the road in the Horseshoe. The question is can the Boilermakers keep up with the high-powered Buckeye offense? The answer is yes. Purdue has the best receiver in college football in David Bell, and against a defense that struggles in its secondary, I love Bell to have another monster day. Ohio State wins, but it’s nowhere close to a large enough margin to take them with the points as well. Purdue gets the easy cover.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Purdue +21.5 (-118)
Maryland @ #7 Michigan State – 4pm ET
After starting the season 4-0, Maryland has since gone just 1-4 and lost convincingly to each ranked opponent that they have played. They now have to get on the road and face a Michigan State side that had an embarrassing loss last weekend and can’t afford to lose any more games. Can the Terrapins buck the trend or will the Spartans bounce back and prove they are a College Football Playoff hopeful?
Tim Newton
I think this is a blowout. Michigan State has to respond after last week’s showing and their strength is Maryland’s weakness. Behind Kenneth Walker, the Spartans lean heavily on the running game and like to control time of possession. Maryland has a better overall defense than Michigan State but is better at defending the pass than the run. Walker, who is FanDuel’s third favorite to win the Heisman right now, should have a field day against a lacklustre Maryland run defense.
On the flip side, the Terrapins offense has shown signs of weakness over this five game stretch and the Spartans, at home, should be looking to exploit this. Taulia Tagovailoa has just six touchdowns while throwing eight interceptions in Maryland’s four losses, while their running game has averaged almost 80 yards less per game. That means that they can’t control time of possession, they have to rely on Tagovailoa to get them out of tricky spots and he hasn’t been able to do that against the better teams.
Given their run-heavy offense, Michigan State hasn’t been blowing teams out of the water this season, with just a 9.4 average margin of victory in their conference games. However, with what is on the line here, given last week’s result, now is the perfect time for the Spartans to send a message.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Michigan State -12.5 (-110)
Tony Battalio
I look for the Michigan State Spartans to respond accordingly following their upset loss to Purdue last week by blowing out Maryland. I also look for star running back and potential Heisman Trophy winner Kenneth Walker to have another huge game. Maryland is a decent team that has shown bright spots but they are not near the level of the elite or even great teams in college football. I can confidently state that Michigan State should have no problem picking up a decisive victory in this one and getting their season back on track. They still have a huge opportunity awaiting them as they play the Ohio State Buckeyes for a potential showdown to control the Big Ten title race and the Big Ten’s college football playoff hopes. As previously stated I look for Michigan State to win this one in blowout fashion and cover the nearly two touchdown spread of 12.5 points.
Tony’s College Football Pick: Michigan State -12.5 (-110)
Noah Dunlap
Michigan State. BIG.
I like Mel Tucker as one of the best coaches in football, and coming off the upset loss to Purdue, I think Sparty takes out some frustration on the overmatched Maryland Terrapins. Kenneth Walker would currently be my favorite to win the Heisman trophy, and against a so-so Maryland rush defense (to be polite), I expect Walker to put up another 150-200 yard performance.
Maryland’s offense has also struggled at times this year, with inconsistent play from QB Taulia Tagovailoa, and against a decent Michigan State defense that’s frustrated and looking to rebound, I think this Terrapin offense struggles to score. Sparty wins in a major way, so feel comfortable with punching the MSU -12.5 in this one.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Michigan State -12.5 (-110)
#11 Texas A&M @ #15 Ole Miss – 7pm ET
We round out our College Football Picks with Ole Miss hosting Texas A&M in the battle for second place in the SEC West. In fact, a win here would put either side in striking distance of the top spot, if Alabama were to lose another game. With plenty on the line, this game will have plenty of firepower and meaning.
Tim Newton
This is sure to be a cracking contest between the offense-heavy Rebels and the defense-heavy Aggies. Ole Miss has scored under 30 points just twice from their conference games while Texas A&M have only allowed over 20 points in a game twice. This is going to be an interesting clash, but I am going to stick with the trend and take the Rebels to win. They are a perfect 5-0 at home this season and their offense is fourth best in the country. Matt Corral, who is still fourth favorite (+500) for the Heisman according to FanDuel, is averaging over 280 passing yards per game and has thrown just two interceptions from nine appearances this season. When you factor in that he has 16 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns, it isn’t hard to see why this Ole Miss offense is humming.
However, the Aggies have won four straight, including a win over Alabama, and kept each of their last three opponents to 14 points or less. Last week against Auburn, they forced Bo Nix into completing less than 50% of his passes while keeping him scoreless and forcing an interception. However, they showed against Alabama that a good offense can score easily on them, and Ole Miss’ offense is potentially better than Alabama’s right now. The question is whether the Rebels’ defense will hold up, but I think the home-field advantage will be massive in that area and help them get over the line, just.
Tim’s College Football Pick: Ole Miss (+112)
𝙒𝘼𝙏𝘾𝙃 𝙉𝙊𝙒: #ThePulse, Episode 9. 🍿
🎬 https://t.co/qxOGXmgO4k#GigEm pic.twitter.com/89FYRGHmar
— Texas A&M Football (@AggieFootball) November 11, 2021
Tony Battalio
Next to Oklahoma and Baylor this is one of the most important contests of the weekend slate as Texas A&M needs a huge win to stay alive in the SEC West title race as they own a head to head win over Alabama, they will still need Alabama to lose one of their remaining two SEC games. As for Ole Miss, a win here would keep their slim hopes for an SEC Title alive although they would need a lot more help than Texas A&M would. This game could easily go either way as Texas A&M and Ole Miss both have offenses and defenses that can carry them to victory.
At the end of the day I look for Texas A&M to come out on top and keep their SEC championship dreams alive. That’s why also be a battle between two great coaches and Lane Kiffen and Jimbo Fisher so there will be a lot of action to look for on the field on Saturday night as this may be the most important college football game to date the season even though it doesn’t hold any direct college football playoff implications and create a lot of chaos in the coming weeks. In the end I have the previously mentioned Texas A&M Aggies to come out on top in this one
Tony’s College Football Pick: Texas A&M (-138)
Noah Dunlap
Ole Miss’ offensive injuries absolutely destroy them in this one. They’ve managed to work through the injuries well enough to this point, but Texas A&M has arguably the best defense they’ve seen all year and I expect the depleted Rebel offense to struggle more so than they normally would.
As for the other side of the ball, the Aggie offense is clearly the weakness of their team, however, Ole Miss’ defense has shown they’re only capable of playing one half per contest. Look for a physical A&M rushing attack to simply overpower the Rebel defense, and rack up 250+ yards on the ground. Despite being at home, with College GameDay in attendance, I don’t think Ole Miss can overcome some of the injury problems they’re facing, so I like Texas A&M to get a road victory in a lower scoring affair than many may expect.
Noah’s College Football Pick: Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)
*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.
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