Top March Madness Predictions for First Round 2022: South Bracket

Top March Madness Predictions for First Round 2022: South Bracket
Thu 17th March 2022

Look below to find our top March Madness predictions for all the First Round action in the South Bracket. 

Thursday, March 17th

#6 Colorado State vs #11 Michigan – 12:15pm ET

This matchup is a head scratcher, as one of these teams should’ve never been here in the first place. As Colorado State takes on Michigan in this matchup of Mid-Major vs Power Five for a shot at making it to the second weekend of the tournament. 

Marko Nadin

The Michigan Wolverines are entering the first round match as a 1.5 favorites to the Colorado State Rams. Juwan Howard’s team didn’t have as successful a regular season as expected. The Wolverines finished 7th in the Big Ten with a 17-14 record. They failed in the opening round of the conference tournament losing to Indiana 74-69. How deep Michigan will go in the tournament or if they will go past the first round will depend on center Hunter Dickinson. The 7’1’’ sophomore will have to take the team on his back and he seems ready for the challenge as he averaged 18.3 points and 8.3 rebounds per game on 56.3% shooting from the field.

Colorado State finished second in the Mountain West Conference with a 25-5 record. They have won 9 of the last 11 games but failed to win in the conference finals, losing 63-58 to San Diego State. The Rams are one of the best teams that no one talks about and are definitely capable of defeating Michigan. Colorado State is ranked 14th in the nation in field goal percentage with 48.7% and are ranked 7th in free-throw shooting with 78.8%. Junior guard David Roddy can have a breakout tournament as his versatility makes him a real asset on both ends of the floor. Roddy is averaging 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game on 57.4% shooting from the field and 45.4% from three-point territory. Given this year’s performance, it can not be called an upset, but Colorado State will go past the famous opponent in the opening round.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Colorado State (-102)

Tony Battalio

The Colorado State Rams come into this game as an six seed. They finished the season with a record of 25-5 on the year. Even after being knocked out in the Mountain West Conference tournament semifinals by the Broncos of Boise State, they were good enough to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. They will be a tough out in this tournament and could potentially be a sweet sixteen team in my opinion. Somehow they are the underdogs against an underwhelming Michigan team. 

As for the previously mentioned Michigan Wolverines, I personally believe they shouldn’t even be here. As they finished the season with a record of 17-14 on the year and Don’t really have any standout resume worthy victories to justify being a part of this tournament. They absolutely should’ve been a National Invitational Tournament team not an NCAA tournament team. I think that will show in this one as I think they will certainly be one and done. I have Colorado State winning this one over Michigan.  

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Colorado State (-102)

Noah Dunlap

Potential hot take here, but Michigan shouldn’t be in the field. I’m sorry, but a team that sits at 17-14, and blew a 17-point lead in the second half of their first game in the conference tournament, simply can’t make the field, yet here we are. This Michigan team had high hopes coming into this season, following a great run through last year’s tournament, which ended in an Elite Eight loss to UCLA. They haven’t been able to get any type of consistency at all, and while they do have a few solid wins, they have just as many bad losses which, in my opinion, should have kept them out of the field. However, not only did they make the field, but they don’t even have to play a First Four game, as instead they come in as the 11-seed taking on the Colorado State Rams. 

Colorado State comes in at 25-5, good for second in the Mountain West, showing just how far this program has come over the years. On top of that, they’re playing really good ball as of late, winning nine of their last 11, and led by leading scorer David Roddy, who is averaging over 19 ppg, I think they have their real chance to get the win in this one. I simply have no confidence in this Wolverines team to show up at any real level, so give me the Rams to get the win in this one, in what I think could be a reasonably close affair. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Colorado State (-102)

#3 Tennessee vs #14 Longwood  – 2:45pm ET

The SEC champs meet the Big South champs in this matchup. Tennessee is surely a dark horse team while the Lancers of Longwood are a sneaky team who have the potential to pull an upset.  

Marko Nadin

The Tennessee Volunteers are ranked third in the nation but many do not consider them a serious contender to win the championship this year but no team will have an easy time facing the Vols. Tennessee finished the season second in the SEC with a 26-7 record, including a perfect 16-0 at home. They are on a seven-game winning streak including a 69-62 win over Kentucky in the conference semifinals and a 65-50 win over Texas A&M in the final of the conference. The Volunteers are a 18-point favorite going into this one and they will easily cover that spread maybe even in the first half. 

Longwood Lancers finished the regular season on top of the Big South N conference with a 26-6 record. They have only one loss in 2022 and have won the other 19 games. They won the conference defeating Winthrop by 19 points. The Lancers are a solid three-point shooting team with over 37% but that will go way lower against the Volunteers. Longwood is led by guard Justin Hill who is averaging 14.2 points per game and he is not the type of player who can get his team even close to winning against Tennessee.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Tennessee (-4000)

Tony Battalio

The Tennessee Volunteers capped off a perfect season at home and despite being third in the nation and a top team in the SEC they are seemingly getting no respect. Even after winning the SEC conference tournament championship they are being written off by media members and fans as well. Which I believe is a very big mistake as this team has enough talent to win this whole tournament. Their biggest obstacle is a potential rematch with the Wildcats of Villanova somewhere down the line. 

The Big South conference champions will be making their first ever appearance in the NCAA tournament in this year’s edition of the big dance. Their 26-6 record on the season showed that it’s well deserved and they earned it. They looked even better in conference play going 15-1 over the course of the regular season. Weirdly enough they won all three of their conference tournament games by scoring exactly 79 points. It was a huge turnaround for the Lancers as they finished the 2020-21 season with a losing record of 12–17. This team has all the potential in the world to score a first round upset. However, as for the result of this game I just can’t see it happening as I have Tennessee getting the win.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Tennessee (-4000)

Noah Dunlap

Longwood has had a solid year so far, going 26-6 and winning the Big South conference tournament. The biggest reason for this is a balanced offensive attack, as they’re a high scoring team, despite their leading scorer, Justin Hill, only averaging a touch over 14 ppg. They come into this one on an eight-game winning streak, though I think that probably comes to an end in this one. 

The Lancers face the Tennessee Volunteers in this 3/14 matchup, and the result virtually comes down to whether or not Tennessee sulks about arguably being robbed of a two-seed. The Vols have been the topic of many conversations about whether they should’ve been a two-seed as opposed to a three, though in the end it makes very little difference. With Kennedy Chandler, Santiago Vescovi, and John Fulkerson leading the way, assuming they come into this one even remotely interested, they have the talent care of business with ease. While there’s been some talk of an upset here, I just don’t see it, so give me the Vols in a big way, as I think they come out looking to prove a point to the committee. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Tennessee (-4000)

Friday March 18th

#7 Ohio State vs #10 Loyola Chicago – 12:15pm ET

The Buckeyes will look to shake off their recent tournament woes in this one, while Loyola Chicago will look to make another Cinderella run to the final four. As both of these teams are potential sweet sixteen teams this season. 

Marko Nadin

The Ohio State Buckeyes are slight favorites going into the game against Loyola Chicago but will have to play their best basketball in order to advance. The Buckeyes finished the regular season fourth in the Big Ten with a 19-11 record. They are coming off 4 losses in the last 5 games including an upset in the conference quarterfinal where they lost to Penn State 71-68. Junior forward EJ Liddell is playing a great season and seems NBA ready as he averages 19.3 points and 7.9 rebounds on 49.2% shooting from the field. The Buckeyes are among the top 35 teams in the nation in field goal percentage with 47.5 and three-point percentage with 37.3%.

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming into the tournament after winning the MVC conference with a 64-58 win over Drake in the finals. The Ramblers finished the regular season second in the MVC with a 25-7 record. Senior forward Lucas Williamson is the leader of the team as he averages 14 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists per game for the Ramblers. Loyola Chicago is the eighth-best three-point shooting team in the nation making 38.8% of their shots and will be really dangerous if they go on fire. Anyway, the Buckeyes is the team that will advance from this one.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Ohio State (-108)

Tony Battalio

The Ohio State Buckeyes have not had the best of luck in tournaments lately. In last year’s NCAA tournament they were eliminated by Oral Roberts after being upset in the first round. In this year’s Big Ten conference tournament they had their season ended early by their arch rivals the Michigan Wolverines. Now they will be looking to break that curse and they may have drawn the worst possible team to do it against. As it will be a very tough task for a struggling Buckeyes team to get past the Ramblers. 

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are a Cinderella no more after back to back big time runs in the NCAA tournament. With Sister Jean on their side this team just seems to play like they have been lifted by the holy spirit. They ran through the Missouri Valley Conference on their way to a 25-7 record this season. As for the result of this game I have them getting the win here too over Ohio State and starting yet another big time tournament run.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Loyola Chicago (-111)

Noah Dunlap

What a matchup this is going to be. The Ohio State Buckeyes were one of the best teams in the Big Ten for much of the year, at one point looking like a potential two-seed, before crashing and burning towards the end of the year, which caused them to fall all the way down to being a seven. They’re led by E.J. Liddell, who is averaging right at 20 ppg, but as of late, during this rough stretch, he hasn’t been getting much help, which has been one of the biggest problems for this squad lately. 

Their first round matchup certainly isn’t friendly by any means, either, as they take on Loyola Chicago, who famously had the Cinderella run to the Final Four in 2018. That run took three game-winning shots to get that far, and while this is a good team this year, I think they’re going to be in need of similar luck (does Sister Jean have enough magic left in her?) to make a similar run this year. They’re 25-7 coming out of the Missouri Valley, including winning the conference tournament to get the automatic bid. I like this game to be close, but in the end I think the Buckeyes have a touch too much talent in this one, so I’m taking Ohio State in what has the potential to be one of the best matchups of the first round. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Ohio State (-108)

#2 Villanova vs #15 Delaware – 2:45pm ET

The Big East Conference tournament champions will be taking on the Colonial conference tournament champions in this one. As the Villanova Wildcats will play the Delaware Blue Hens for a trip to the second round. 

Marko Nadin

Villanova will have some sort of home court advantage as the first round game will be played in Pittsburgh. The WIldcats finished the regular season with a 26-7 record that put them second in the Big East. They had a tough conference tournament winning three games with a total margin of 10 points. Villanova is the best free-throw shooting team in the nation with 82.5% from the stripe and they are also among the top 50 with 36.6% shooting from the three-point line. Villanova is going into the game against Delaware as a 15.5 point favorites. The Wildcats have won all of the previous 8 games against Delaware.

The Delaware Blue Hens finished the regular season fourth in the CAA with a 22-12 record. Despite that, the Hens managed to win the conference tournament defeating UNC Wilmington 59-55 in the final game. Delaware is quite a good team on both ends of the floor but will stand no chances against the 2018 champion. The Hens have covered the spread in 15 of the last 21 games on neutral field but that will not be the case against Villanova.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Villanova -15.5 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Villanova Wildcats will be searching for their third national championship in the last seven years when they take the court on Thursday to start their journey. They put together a great season this year and won the Big East conference tournament after beating the Creighton Blue Jays in the finals. They finished the season with a record of 26-7. Now they will be looking to avoid being upset by a scrappy and tough Blue Hens team. 

The Delaware Blue Hens come into this game with a record of 22-12 after winning the Colonial conference tournament championship. In the finals the Blue Hens beat the University of North Carolina at Greensboro by a score of 59-55 in a low scoring matchup. Now the Blue Hens will look to get a huge upset win over a recent former national champion, the Villanova Wildcats. However, I can’t see it happening as I have the Wildcats getting the victory in this one over Delaware.  

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Villanova (-2100)

Noah Dunlap

After a slow start to the year through their non-conference slate, the Villanova Wildcats turned things on in a major way, as they finished second in the Big East during the regular season, but managed to take care of business in the conference tournament, as they took down Creighton in the finals. Led by Collin Gillespie, they’re a team that if they manage to stay hot for a decent stretch, could be a real sleeper to pop up in the title game. 

Taking on Delaware, I don’t think they have much trouble in this one. The Blue Hens come in at 22-12, and only made the field after getting the automatic bid for winning the Colonial conference tournament. They’re a decent team given the circumstances, especially with how they’re playing of late, but they just don’t have the talent to get them over the edge in this matchup against Villanova. Wildcats with ease. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Villanova (-2100)

#4 Illinois vs #13 Chattanooga – 6:50pm ET

The fourth seeded Illinois Fighting Illini were favored in the Big Ten conference tournament but suffered an early exit which severely affected their seeding in this tournament. Meanwhile Chattanooga finished the season 27-7 and won the SoCon thanks to a huge three at the buzzer. Now these two teams will meet in this first round matchup. 

Marko Nadin

The Illinois Fighting Illini are another team that can make a deep run in the tournament as they are coming off a good season finishing on top of the Big Ten conference with a 22-9 record. Illinois surprisingly lost in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament 65-63 to the Indiana Hoosiers. Center Kofi Cockburn is one of the players that can make a name for himself in this year’s tournament. The Jamaican is averaging double-doubles for the season with 21.1 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Chattanooga doesn’t have a player who can at least try to slow down Cockburn which will lead Illinois to an easy victory covering the 8 point spread.

The Chattanooga Mocs finished the regular season on top of the Southern conference with a 27-7 record. They also managed to win the conference tournament with a dramatic 64-63 overtime win over Furman. The Mocs are among the top 90 teams in every major offensive category but that will not help them against Illinois. 

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Illinois -7.5 (-114)

Tony Battalio

As long as Kofi Cockburn is healthy and on the basketball court the Illinois Fighting Illini are national championship contenders in my opinion. The Fighting Illini won the Big Ten regular season championship but came up short in the Big Ten conference tournament after losing in the quarterfinals to the Indiana Hoosiers. Now they will be looking to bounce back and make another deep run in March for the second year in a row. This team is one of the most dangerous in the nation. 

Chattanooga winning the Southern Conference with a huge three point buzzer beater was the highlight of Championship Week. Now they will look to score another big win in this NCAA Tournament matchup against one of the top teams in college basketball this season. It certainly won’t be an easy task but if they come ready to play then anything is possible for Chattanooga. However, I don’t see it happening as I think Illinois is just too strong this season and I look for them to get the victory in this one.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Illinois (-345)

Noah Dunlap

This is another game that has a real chance to see a major upset, as the Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Chattanooga Mocs. Illinois comes in after finishing at 22-9, which was good for second in the Big Ten. This was somewhat disappointing, especially seeing where they started the year, but it was still good enough for a four seed, and with a guy like Kofi Cockburn, a candidate for national player of the year, they have the real potential, if they play the way we all know they can, to make a real run in the tournament. The problem is that they haven’t hit that ceiling very often this year, and it’s hard to imagine them just being able to flip the switch.

The first round matchup comes against the Chattanooga Mocs of the Southern Conference. The Mocs ran through the SoCon tournament, knocking off Furman in the finals to win the automatic bid. That run pushed their record to 27-7, which is certainly respectable, especially for a team like Chatt. They’re led by Malachi Smith and Kansas transfer Silvio De Sousa. What this means is that they’re one of a very few teams that actually has the size to compete with a team like Illinois, which could make this an intriguing matchup. In the end, I’m going to take the Illini, but I think it comes much closer than they would like. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Illinois (-345)

#1 Arizona vs #16 Wright State – 7:27pm ET

In the final 1 vs 16 matchup the Pac-12 champs will take on the Horizon League champs. As the Arizona Wildcats meet the Wright State Raiders in this game to see who will move on to the first weekend slate for this year’s tournament. 

Marko Nadin

The Arizona Wildcats are having another amazing season finishing the regular season with a 31-3 record and winning the Pac 12. Tennessee, UCLA and Colorado are the only teams that defeated the Wildcats this season. The Wildcats are playing high-tempo basketball on the offensive end and a tough half-court defense which sometimes makes them look unbeatable. Arizona is the third-best scoring team in the nation with 84.7 points per game and is also ranked third in rebounds with 39.2 per game. They are ranked fifth in field goal percentage with 49.5% and sixth in allowed field goal percentage with 38.2%. Guard Bennedict Mathurin is the best player on the team with 17.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Arizona is a 21.5 point favorite in this game and they will probably cover it.

The Wright State Raiders finished the regular season third in the Horizon conference with a 22-13 record. They won the conference defeating Northern Kentucky by 72-71 and then moved on to win 93-82 against Bryant in a first Four game.The Raiders are not among the top 200 teams in any defensive category which will be fatal against an offensive force such as Arizona. The Wildcats may end up scoring over 100 points in this one.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Arizona -21.5 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Arizona Wildcats might just be the least talked about national championship contender. They come into this game with a record of 31-3 on the season. They won the Pac-12 conference regular season championship and the Pac-12 conference tournament championship as well over the UCLA Bruins. Now they will look to make a run to the national championship game and that starts with this game against Wright State on Friday evening. Arizona is my favorite to end up playing for a national championship alongside Gonzaga. 

As for the previously mentioned Wright State Raiders they won their first four game over Bryant and the nation’s leading scorer Peter Kiss in front of what was basically a home crowd in Dayton. Now they will have their hands full with one of the top teams in the nation. They came out of nowhere to win the Horizon League as they beat Northern Kentucky in the finals by a single point, so only time will tell if they can pull off this upset. However, I just don’t see it happening as I have Arizona getting the win.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Arizona (-4500)

Noah Dunlap

Wright State got a great win in pretty dominant fashion over Bryant in the First Four, including causing the nation’s leading scorer, Peter Kiss, to struggle from the field, though he still almost threw in 30. On top of the good defense on Kiss, Tanner Holden dropped 37 of his own, leading the Raiders to their first ever NCAA tournament win. While it was a good win, and a good run, it all comes to an end here though, as the Arizona Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country, and simply have too much talent. 

With Bennedict Mathurin on the perimeter, and Christian Koloko down low in the paint, I just think this Arizona team is way too balanced for what Wright State is going to be able to throw at them. Take the Wildcats with ease, as they put an end to the Raiders run. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Arizona (-4500)

#5 Houston vs #12 UAB – 9:20pm ET

The champions of the American Athletic Conference meet the champions of Conference USA in this 12 vs 5 matchup. As the Houston Cougars will take on Alabama Birmingham otherwise known as UAB. This could possibly be the expected 12 vs 5 upset this year. 

Marko Nadin

The Houston Cougars are having their best season in the past decade as they finished the regular season on top of the American conference with a 29-5 record and then won the conference tournament defeating Memphis in the final 71-53. The Cougars are 8 point favorites against UAB and they will easily cover it. These two teams haven’t played each other in the past 8 seasons and Houston won their last matchup back in 2013. Houston is the best team in the nation when it comes to allowed field goal percentage with 37.2%. They are also ranked 7th in the nation allowing only 58.9 points per game.

The UAB Blazers finished the regular season with a 27-7 record which put them second in the C-USA W conference. They won the conference tournament defeating Louisiana Tech 82-73 in the final after surviving a three-overtime thriller in the semifinal game against Middle Tennessee. UAB scores exactly 80 points per game which ranks them 14th in the country. Junior guard Jordan Walker is the 14th best scorer in the nation with 20.4 points per game but he shoots just over 40% from the field.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Houston -8.5 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Houston Cougars put together one of the best seasons in college basketball this year. As they come into this game with a record of 29-5 on the season. They are one of the dark horse favorites to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament this season. Houston won the American Athletic Conference regular season championship and tournament championship after beating Memphis in the finals by a score of 71-53 in a game that was hardly ever close. Now they will look to avoid the 12 vs 5 curse in this one and get a win. 

The Blazers of UAB come into this game after winning the Conference USA conference tournament championship. They finished the season with a record of 27-7 after beating Louisiana Tech in the conference tournament finals by a score of 82-73. Now they will be looking to get a huge NCAA tournament upset victory over a tough Houston Cougars team that many people think is a possible final four team. As for the result of this game however, I can’t see it happening as I have Houston getting the win.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Houston (-400)

Noah Dunlap

Could this be one of the annual 5/12 upsets that we get at least one of every year? The answer is a definitive yes, as the UAB Blazers take on the Houston Cougars. UAB comes into this one at 27-7, good for second in Conference USA during the regular season, and then managed to win the conference tournament to get the automatic bid. The key to this Blazers team is the offense, as they come in averaging a touch over 80 points per game, which is good for seventh in the nation. 

Taking on Houston, however, is sure to be a tough task for this UAB team, as the Cougars managed to win the American Athletic regular season and tournament titles. They’re a big, physical team that has the guard play to create real balance, which is why, if they’re playing well they have the ability to make a deep run, but they’ve also shown the tendency to struggle at times this year, especially against teams that shoot the ball well, which UAB does. Give me the upset in this one, as I think head coach Andy Kennedy and his Blazers shock the Cougs, as shooting leads the way, getting them to the second round. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: UAB (+310)

#8 Seton Hall vs #9 TCU – 9:57pm ET

Seton Hall and TCU both had great seasons as this game features another tough to call eight vs nine matchup. Both of these schools could easily cause some chaos in the tournament this season. The winner will likely play the Arizona Wildcats in the second round. 

Marko Nadin

Seton Hall is going into the tournament after finishing fifth in the Big East with a 21-10 record. They lost in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament 62-52 to UConn. Senior guard Jared Rhoden has been consistent all year long and is averaging 15.9 points and 6.8 rebounds per game to lead the Pirates. Seton Hall will dominate the boards against TCU which will be a key factor in this game. Seton Hall has five players on the injury list which is certainly a problem but they will still find a way to go past TCU who also have injured players.

The TCU Horned Frogs have finished the regular season fifth in the Big 12 with a 20-12 record. They went past the state rival Texas in the conference quarterfinal but stood no chance against Kansas in the semis losing 75-62. The Horned Frogs are one of the worst teams in the league in three-point shooting with 29%. Seton Hall will know how to take advantage of it and win this one.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Seton Hall

Tony Battalio

The Seton Hall Pirates come into this game with a record of 21-10 the season. They put together a really decent season and were competitive in a very tough Big East conference and it earned them an at-large bid in this tournament. They ended up losing in the Big East conference tournament to UConn in the quarterfinals after beating Georgetown in the previous round. They are a potential dark horse sweet 16 team for me. As they have the talent to make a decent run in this year’s tourney. 

The Horned Frogs of TCU come into this game with a record of 20-12 on the season. They made a decent run in the Big 12 conference this year to earn themselves an at large bid in the NCAA tournament. They are a dangerous team who can beat you on any given night and that’s why some people have them as a potential second weekend team. However, I don’t see that happening as I have the Seton Hall Pirates getting the win over the Horned Frogs in this one.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Seton Hall

Noah Dunlap

Another tight 8/9 matchup in this one gives us the Seton Hall Pirates taking on the TCU Horned Frogs. Seton Hall looked like one of the best teams in the Big East early in the year, at least until Big East play actually started, where they struggled a great deal. They’ve played a bit better of late, but I’m still hesitant to take them in any matchup right now, with the inconsistency they’ve shown on both sides of the floor. 

Now they take on TCU, a team that comes in at 20-12, which was good for fifth in the BIg-12. The Frogs have had a roller coaster season as well, as they have some big wins, but also too many losses that are shaky to say the least. This brings some questions to this team, as well. With this one being the very definition of a toss-up, I think it can go either way. In the end, I’ve been a bit of a believer of the Pirates’ ceiling all year long, so give me Seton Hall to get the close win here. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Seton Hall

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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.

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