Top March Madness Predictions for First Round 2022: Midwest Bracket

Top March Madness Predictions for First Round 2022: Midwest Bracket
Thu 17th March 2022

Look below to find our top March Madness predictions for all the First Round action in the Midwest Bracket. 

Thursday, March 17th

#4 Providence vs #13 South Dakota State – 12:40pm ET

This game has upset written all over it as two regular season conference champions will meet in this one. As the Providence Friars meet a South Dakota State team that won the double this season by winning both the regular season and conference tournament title in the Summit League. 

Marko Nadin

Both the Providence Friars and the South Dakota State Jackrabbits finished on top of their respective conferences in the regular season but the Friars are coming off a disappointing loss in the conference final. Providence had a tough pill to swallow as Creighton demolished them 85-58 in the Big East finals. The Friars finished the regular season on top of the conference with a 25-5 record having a couple of impressive wins over UConn and Wisconsin. Providence is a two-point favorite going into this game. 

South Dakota finished on top of the Summit with a 30-4 record and won the conference with a 75-69 win over North Dakota State. That was the Jackrabbits’ 21st consecutive win. The last time they lost was on December 16, 75-63 to Missouri State. Senior forward Douglas Wilson is playing great lately averaging 15.5 points on 57.4% shooting from the field. South Dakota is on the very top with their offensive game as they are the best in the nation with 52.7% shooting from the field and 45.1% from the three-point line. They are also second with 87.2 points per game.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: South Dakota State (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Providence Friars put together an amazing regular season and even won the Big East regular season championship. However, they were upset in the Big East conference tournament in the quarterfinals by eventual runner-up, the Creighton Blue Jays. Now they will come into this game looking for a bounce back win over a tough South Dakota State team. This game could go either way in my opinion as this should be one of the best games of the opening round of the tournament. 

The South Dakota State Jackrabbits were one of only two teams to go completely perfect in conference regular season and tournament play. Now they will be looking to score the first round upset over the Friars in this 13 vs 4 seed matchup on Thursday afternoon. In the conference tournament finals, they beat North Dakota State to clinch the Summit League tournament championship. As for the result of this game I have them pulling off the upset in this over the Friars.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: South Dakota State (+114)

Noah Dunlap

Upset Alert!

The Providence Friars come into this one having shockingly won the Big East regular season title, with a 25-5 record, and looked like a tremendous basketball team all year long. However, despite all of this, metrics don’t love this Friars team by any means, and honestly, neither do I. They showed what can happen when they’re not playing well, after getting trounced by nearly 30 in the conference tournament by Creighton, and that continues a trend of bad postseason play by the Friars under head coach Ed Cooley, as they’re 1-5 in the Big Dance under their current coach. 

Now they get a South Dakota State Jackrabbits team who is 30-4 on the season, including having won 21 in a row. They’re electric on the offensive end of the floor, as they’ve only been held below 80 six times this year, and one of those they put up 79 in. The defense is questionable, and potentially a bit problematic, but if they’re hitting their shots, I actually like SDSU to pull off the major upset (at least seed wise) in this one. Take the Jackrabbits in a close one. 

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: South Dakota State (+114)

#5 Iowa vs #12 Richmond – 3:10pm ET

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Richmond Spiders meet in this first-round matchup. Both of these teams won their respective conference tournament championships. Iowa stole a bid from Purdue, while Richmond stole a bid from Davidson. 

Marko Nadin

Iowa is going into this game as a 10-point favorite and they will probably win by double differential than this. The Hawkeyes finished the regular season fourth in the Big Ten with a 26-9 record but managed to win the conference with an impressive 75-66 win over Purdue in the finals. Keegan Murray proved to be one of the best forwards in the game and just like the Hawkeyes made an upset in the conference, they may do the same in the NCAA tournament. Murray is averaging over 23 points and 8 rebounds per game and will absolutely dominate in the game against Richmond.

The Richmond Spiders finished the regular season with a 23-12 record which put them in sixth place in the A 10 conference. The Spiders are going to the tournament with high spirit as they won their conference defeating Dayton and Davidson in the semifinal and final match with a total differential of 6 points. Jacob Gilyard who is averaging just over 13 points per game has taken his game to another level scoring 76 points in the last three games. Still, the Spiders will stand no chance against the fifth-best scoring team in the nation.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Iowa -10.5 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Iowa Hawkeyes made a great run towards a Big Ten Conference Tournament championship that concluded in a thriller on Sunday against Purdue. Now they will look to add some NCAA tournament wins to their resume as well. Iowa finished the season with a record of 26-9 on the season and now they will try to avoid the dreaded 12 vs 5 upset in this game. If they can remain healthy and consistent the Hawkeyes could become an elite eight team. 

The Richmond Spiders have all the potential in the world to upset the Iowa Hawkeyes. Richmond finished the season with a record of 23-12 on the season. They made a miraculous run through the Atlantic-10 conference tournament to get themselves into the NCAA tournament. It will certainly be a good game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Richmond Spiders. As for the result of this game, I don’t see an upset happening as I have the Iowa Hawkeyes getting the win.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Iowa (-600)

Noah Dunlap

Richmond has been playing really good basketball as of late, having won four straight to win the A-10 conference tournament, knocking off Davidson, to steal the automatic bid. That being said, they haven’t been great this year by any means, as they come in at 23-12, and that includes the four-game winning streak. One of the most concerning parts about this Spiders team is the fact that they struggle defensively quite often, which as they take on Iowa in this one, could be a major problem. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes enter this one having run through the Big Ten tournament, knocking off Purdue in the title game to get the automatic bid. At 22-9 through the regular season in a really good BIg Ten conference this year, they were already in, but they just made certain of it in Indianapolis last week. Led by Keegan Murray, and with how they’re playing lately, they’re a popular team to potentially advance through to the Final Four, and while I think that may be getting ahead of ourselves just a bit, I do think they take care of Richmond in this one, potentially in a big way. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Iowa (-600)

#8 San Diego State vs #9 Creighton – 7:27pm ET 

This is going to be a very competitive 8 vs 9 matchup as the San Diego State Aztecs are taking on the Creighton Blue Jays. Both of these teams could end up being a potential Sweet Sixteen team if they win this one and upset the likely number one seed they will face. 

Marko Nadin

The Creighton Bluejays are having a good season considering the competition in the Big East. They finished the regular season fourth in the conference with a 22-11 record. They made it to the conference finals after defeating Marquette and Providence but failed in the final 54-48 to the Villanova Wildcats. Creighton is a bad three-point shooting team which may cost them a lot in win-or-go-home situations. The Bluejays shoot only 31% from deep and 72% from the free-throw line. 

The San Diego Aztecs are one of the teams that may be the Cinderella story this year. The Aztecs finished the regular season third in the Mountain West Conference with a 23-8 record. They made it to the conference finals where they lost to Boise State by 53-52 which was their first loss after seven consecutive wins. San Diego State is the second-best team in the league when it comes to points allowed with only 58.3 per game. They are a two-point favorite and have won the last two games against Creighton in 2014 and 2009.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: San Diego State (-134)

Tony Battalio

The San Diego State Aztecs are coming into this game with a record of 23-8 on the season. They lost in the Mountain West Conference tournament championship game to the Boise State Broncos by a single point as the final score was 52-53 in favor of Boise State. Now the Aztecs will be looking to bounce back against a tough Creighton Blue Jays team that will be looking to get a huge win over them. San Diego State is a dark horse sweet sixteen team in my opinion as they have all the talent they need to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. 

The Creighton Blue Jays are coming into this game with a record of 22-11 on the season. They were highly competitive in a very talented Big East conference this season. They made a run all the way to the Big East conference tournament championship game before losing to their eventual champions the Villanova Wildcats by a score of 48-54. Now they will be looking to bounce back with a first round win in the NCAA Tournament. However, as for the result of this game I don’t see that happening as I have San Diego State getting the win. 

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: San Diego State (-134)

Noah Dunlap

As with most 8/9 matchups, I think this one has the real potential to be extremely close, as it should be. The San Diego State Aztecs come into this one at 23-8, which was good enough for third in the Mountain West. They did fall to Boise State by one in the conference tournament final, but that’s not a bad loss by any means, as Boise was already a lock for the field as well. The key to this Aztec team is their defense, and slow pace, as if they’re able to slow this game down, keeping it in the 60s, or lower, I like their odds. 

They do take on a Creighton team that is playing extremely well, having just made a run to the Big East final, where they bowed out to Villanova, who is a two-seed in the field of 64. This Bluejays team showed where their ceiling is (it’s extremely high) in the semis though, as they demolished the regular season champion Providence Friars by 27.If they play the way they did in that one, and their shots are falling, I like their ability to score by shooting over the top of the SDSU defense, but the problem is that I’m not convinced they’ll be able to shoot well enough in this one. GIve me the Aztecs in a low scoring affair, with a score looking something like 63-55.

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: San Diego State (-134)

#1 Kansas vs #16 Texas Southern – 9:57pm ET

It’s yet another case of a number one vs number sixteen that is going to get very ugly, very fast as the Kansas Jayhawks will meet Texas Southern after they beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi in the first four on Tuesday. 

Marko Nadin

The Kansas Jayhawks are among the top 5 candidates to win the tournament this season.  The Jayhawks won the Big 12 conference with a 74-65 win over Texas Tech after finishing the regular season on top of the conference with a 28-6 record. The only weak aspect of Jayhawks’ game is the free-throw shooting as they are barely over 70% which can be crucial in tight games that the tournament will definitely bring. They seemingly have all that a championship team is built off but will have to prove that against the best teams in the country. Senior guard Ochai Agbaji is the leader of the team with 19.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. They are a 21.5 point favorite against Texas Southern which clearly shows how good they are.

The Texas Southern finished the regular season with a 19-12 record which put them second in the SWAC. Anyway, they went on to dominate the conference tournament defeating Alcorn State in the final by 87-62. The Tigers are a solid defensive team allowing only 40.2% from the field and 30.1% from the three-point line which ranks them among the top 35 teams in both categories but that will not help them much against Kansas. 

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Kansas (-8000)

Tony Battalio

The Kansas Jayhawks are coming into this game as the number one seed and with a record on the season of 28-6. They are the overwhelming favorites in this game as they should be as Texas Southern is way overmatched when it comes to talent on paper and on the basketball court. Kansas is a sure fire final four team in my opinion as long as they stay healthy and focused. I expect the Jayhawks to win this one by at least 30 points.

Texas Southern comes into this game with a record of 19-12 after winning their first four game against Texas A&M Corpus Christi on Tuesday by a score of 76-67. Now they will have their hands full with the Kansas Jayhawks and will likely need a miracle to pick up the victory in this one. They are the champions of the Southland conference, and they made a great run in the conference tournament but will likely be one and done here. As for the result of this game I have Kansas getting the win. 

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Kansas (-8000)

Noah Dunlap

The Kansas Jayhawks come into this one as the one-seed in this region, as is the case with all but one one-seed in history, I think they’re going to take care of business in a major way. They won the Big-12 regular season and tournament titles, and at 28-6, they’re one of the best teams in the country (clearly). Led by Ochai Agbaji, I think they’re a team that has a real shot to make a deep run through the field, possibly ending up in the Final Four, or even the title game. 

With them taking on Texas Southern in this one, who won their First Four matchup over Texas A&M-CC, they’re going to be facing a team that has a solid defense but struggles on the offensive end. The defense of the Tigers was enough to get them against a comparable team in the Islanders, but against the Jayhawks, I think the talent disparity is just going to be way too much. Give me Kansas in a route. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Kansas (-8000)

Friday, March 18th

#2 Auburn vs #15 Jacksonville State – 12:40pm ET

The 2nd seeded Auburn Tigers are playing the 15th seed Jacksonville State in this game. Auburn will look to avoid being upset by the Atlantic Sun runner ups. As most people don’t expect this game to be close at all. 

Marko Nadin

The Auburn Tigers had another impressive regular season finishing on top of the SEC with a 27-5 record but suffered a disappointing 67-62 loss to Texas A&M in the conference semifinal game. That is a huge lesson for the Tigers who despite the recent failure are among the top candidates to win the title this season. Auburn is among the top 25 teams in points and rebounds per game and will take care of business very well against Jacksonville State.

The Gamecocks finished the regular season on top of the ASUN W with a 21-10 record. They lost in the conference semifinal to Jacksonville 54-51. The Gamecocks are the second-best three-point shooting team in the nation with 39.9% and are among the top 50 in field goal percentage on both ends of the floor. Anyway, Auburn is on another level and will cover the 15.5 spread in this game.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Auburn (-2000)

Tony Battalio

Many people would argue that Jacksonville State doesn’t belong in the NCAA tournament this season. That is due to the fact that they lost in the Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament finals to Bellarmine. However, Bellarmine is still transitioning to D1, which means Jacksonville State got the automatic bid despite the loss. They are definitely not a team to write off, as their 21-10 record shows they can win. This is their second appearance in the last five years. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jacksonville State ended up winning their first round game and being one of the many upsets in years tournament. They are a dangerous matchup for whoever they happen to face off within the first round

The Auburn Tigers are coming into this game as one of the best teams in the nation. They come into this game with a record of 27-5 on the season. They were bounced early from the SEC conference tournament which likely prevented them from getting a number one seed in the NCAA tournament. Now they will look to begin their run to a national championship with a win in this game. As for the result of this game I have the Auburn Tigers getting the win.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Auburn (-2000)

Noah Dunlap

The Auburn Tigers have been one of the best teams in the country all year long, despite their early exit in the SEC tournament. They were ranked number one for multiple weeks, and with guys like Jabari Smith (the potential number one overall pick) and Walker Kessler, the best defender in the SEC, I think they’re a very clear contender to make a deep run through this tournament. If there’s one concern with this team, it’s the fact that they’ve slowed down a bit over the later portions of the season, but with this being the NCAA tournament, I like their chances of being able to flip that switch again. 

Despite this being the 2/15 matchup, Jacksonville State isn’t going to be an easy walkover. The Gamecocks come in at 21-10, but they did win the regular season Atlantic Sun title, before falling in the conference tournament. The only reason they’re in the field is because of one of the dumbest rules we’ve ever seen, as Bellarmine (who won the ASUN tournament) was ruled ineligible, due to a mandatory four year transition period, as they’re moving up from Division II. This allowed Jacksonville State to get the bid, as they won the regular season title. They’re a sneaky team, as they played great through conference play, after struggling a bit through the non-conference slate. I think they would have the ability to pull off an upset against certain teams, but I don’t think that happens against this Auburn team. The Tigers just have too much talent, so give me Auburn by 15+. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Auburn (-2000)

#7 USC vs #10 Miami – 3:10pm ET

The Trojans had a great season this year and now they will face the ten seed as a number seven seed. Miami barely sneaked into the field and now have to deal with a very good USC team. This should be one of the best games of the day on Friday. 

Marko Nadin

One of the most interesting matchups in the first round will be played in Greenville where USC will collide with Miami. The Trojans finished the regular season third in the Pac 12 with a 26-7 record. They are coming into the tournament losing 3 of the last 4 games including a 69-59 loss to the UCLA Bruins in the conference semifinal game. USC is the ninth-best rebounding team in the nation with 37.2 boards per game and they are ranked 14th allowing only 38.9% shooting from the field. USC is a one point favorite going into this game which is spread that they will easily cover.

The Miami Hurricanes finished the regular season with a 23-10 record which put them in fourth place in the ACC. They put on a great performance against Duke in the conference semifinals but failed short at the end losing 80-76. Miami is an offensively oriented team which cost them at the defensive end as they allow 46% shooting from the field and 35% from the three-point line. They will be competitive in this game but will not hold on until the very end against the Trojans.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: USC (-122)

Tony Battalio

The USC Trojans finished the season with a record of 26-7 as its one of the best teams they have ever had in program history. Now they will look to bounce back from their Pac-12 conference tournament quarterfinals loss and get a win in the NCAA tournament. USC is a sneaky team and could easily end up playing their way into the tournament’s second weekend. If they can get hot at the right time they could even be a final four team in my opinion. But they will definitely need to bring their A game against the Hurricanes. 

Meanwhile the Miami Hurricanes finished the season with a record of 23-10 as they were bounced in the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament 2nd round. Now they will look to bounce back with a big win over Southern California. This will definitely be one of those games that goes down to the very final seconds. However, when the final buzzer does sound I have the USC Trojans coming out on top, not the Miami Hurricanes. 

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: USC (-122)

Noah Dunlap

This is one of the most exciting matchups of the first round, in my opinion. USC comes in after finishing third in the Pac-12, with a 26-7 record. The problem that I see with this Trojans team though, is the fact that, despite 26 wins, only two of those came against tournament teams (San Diego State and UCLA). I think they’re a solid team, with good size, but the struggles against tournament teams, and lack of games against quality opponents, causes me real concern when it comes to this squad. 

Miami comes in as one of the more surprising teams this season, as they ran through the ACC and finished fourth in the conference. With a 23-10 record overall, they have a few more wins over tournament teams, but not many. I’m actually going to take the Hurricanes in this one, as I think they have a higher upside when they play well, as they showed in wins over Duke, Virginia Tech, and an absolute blowout of North Carolina. This one is going to be close, and while the Trojans have arguably been a touch more consistent throughout the season, with the higher upside, I’m taking Miami in an extremely tight one, and one that could give meaning to the phrase “March Madness.”

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Miami (+102)

#6 LSU vs #11 Iowa State – 7:20pm ET

This SEC vs Big 12 matchup will be a good one as the LSU Tigers will face off with the Iowa State Cyclones. Both of these teams are likely going to face a tough test regardless of who advances in this one. 

Marko Nadin

The LSU Tigers are coming into this game as a 4 point favorites which doesn’t make much sense in the first place. The Tigers finished the regular season fifth in the SEC with a 22-11 record and were eliminated in the conference quarterfinal by Arkansas who won 79-67. LSU is among the top 10 teams in the nation when it comes to allowed field goal and three-point shooting percentage but are a bad three-point shooting team themselves as they make only 32% of their attempts. KSU has covered the spread in only 3 of the last 11 tournament games as favorites.

The Iowa State Cyclones finished the regular season in seventh place in the Big 12 with a 20-12 record. They are coming off three consecutive losses to Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech which was the second such series in the season. Iowa State is ranked 27th in the nation with 62.7 points allowed per game and they are also defending the three-point territory allowing only 29% from deep. The Cyclones have covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games they played as an underdog on a neutral field.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Iowa State +4 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The LSU Tigers are coming into this game with a record of 22-11 on the season. They were tossed out of the SEC conference tournament rather quickly and were pretty lucky to get into the field of 68 in my opinion. They were knocked out in the quarterfinals by the Arkansas Razorbacks. They will be looking to bounce back in this game against the Iowa State Cyclones. Truthfully I don’t think LSU is going to go far even if they win this game. 

The Iowa State Cyclones come into this game with a record of 20-12 on the season. They were blown out in the Big 12 Conference tournament quarterfinals by the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Much like the LSU Tigers I don’t expect the Iowa State Cyclones to go far if they win this game either. Both of these teams are lucky to make the field of 68. As for the result of this however, I think it’s going to be Iowa State that comes out on top in this game.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Iowa State (+146)

Noah Dunlap

Everything on the floor screams take LSU in this one. They started the year extremely hot, before cooling off in SEC play, but still played well enough to slide into the tournament at a six-seed, at 22-11 on the year. The issue is what has transpired after the year, as they’ve fired head coach Will Wade, after the NCAA finally released it’s notice of major allegations against the program. They’re almost certainly going to get hit with a few major sanctions due to this, and being without their head coach is going to end up proving to be problematic. 

Iowa State started the year in a similar way, as they looked like one of the best teams in the country through the non-conference slate, but they then took a major tumble through Big-12 play, which is why they’ve stumbled into the tournament as an 11-seed. While they aren’t great, and not necessarily playing very good basketball as of late, with a guy like Izaiah Brockington, who has shown the ability to take over games at times, and LSU having fired Wade, I like Iowa State to get the win, based largely on the stability within their program currently. Take the Cyclones in a close one. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Iowa State (+146)

#3 Wisconsin vs #14 Colgate – 9:50pm ET

The Wisconsin Badgers will meet the champions of the Patriot League in this one. As they look to avoid the first round upset and play their way into the second weekend of the tournament. Meanwhile Colgate will look to cause chaos in March.

Marko Nadin

The Wisconsin Badgers are another sleeping candidate that can make it at least to the Final Four. The Badgers finished the regular season on top of the Big Ten with a 24-7 record but failed to Michigan State in the quarterfinal of the conference tournament. The Badgers are going into the first round game as a 8 point favorite and will definitely cover it. They faced Colgate in the tournament 11 years ago and won by 27 points differential. The Badgers are a strong defensive team that will lock the Raiders under 60 points in this one which will be enough for a comfortable win.

The Colgate Raiders finished the regular season on top of the Patriot conference with a 23-11 record. They won the conference tournament with a 74-58 win over Navy which was their 15th consecutive win. The Raiders are the fourth-best three-point shooting team in the nation with 39.4%. They also shoot well from the field with 46.8% which leads them to 75 points per game. Anyway, there is a huge gap between these two teams and Colgate will not be even close to winning this one.

Marko’s College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin -8 (-110)

Tony Battalio

The Wisconsin Badgers had a pretty successful regular season as they come into this game with a top three seed and a record of 24-7. They will be looking to get a big win over Colgate and start their journey towards a national championship. The Badgers were bounced in the Big Ten conference tournament by Michigan State and Tom Izzo. As they will look for a bounce back win in this game. Wisconsin is predicted to be upset by Joe Lunardi. 

Colgate comes into this game having won the Patriot League conference tournament. They come into this game with a record of 23-11 on the season. In the conference tournament finals they beat the Naval Academy by a score of 74-58. Now they will be looking to pull off the upset over the Wisconsin Badgers. However, As for the result of this game I have the Badgers getting the win over Colgate and advancing to the second round.

Tony’s College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin (-350)

Noah Dunlap

This is a good 3/14 matchup between a really good team in Wisconsin that has fallen apart a bit as of late, as they take on the winners of the Patriot League, the Colgate Raiders, who finished the year at 23-11, and won the Patriot League tournament to make the field. Much like is typical for Patriot League ball, Cornell plays a slower style of basketball, as they don’t have the athletes to necessarily compete against big name schools, but what they do extremely well is play very disciplined, and don’t make all that many mistakes. This is great for the Raiders, but the problem is that that’s similar to the way the Badgers like playing, and the difference is the athletes, specifically a guy like Johnny Davis, who has been a contender for national player of the year all season long. Coming off of a solid year in the Big Ten, with some huge wins along the way, I think the safe play has to be taking Wisconsin with relative ease in this first round matchup. 

Noah’s College Basketball Pick: Wisconsin (-350)

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*Odds and spreads correct at time of publication, courtesy of FanDuel.

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